Coquimbo Unido 2-3 U. Catolica – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates U. Catolica at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Coquimbo Unido vs U. Catolica fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso plays host to Coquimbo Unido versus U. Catolica in Primera División, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Saturday 5 February 2022 at 23:30 UTC.
Current Form
U. Catolica have collected 2.70 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 9W 0D 1L. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling in Primera División this season, U. Catolica have posted 6W 0D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.80 is notably below their overall 2.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Coquimbo Unido 1.09 xG and U. Catolica 1.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coquimbo Unido attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | U. Catolica attack 1.240 / defence 0.954. League average goals — home 1.349 / away 1.186. U. Catolica have an above-average attack strength of 1.240 — the away xG of 1.69 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 0 Coquimbo Unido games / 32 U. Catolica games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 23% | Draw 27% | U. Catolica 50%. Fair-value odds: Coquimbo Unido 4.35 | Draw 3.70 | U. Catolica 2.00. U. Catolica hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is U. Catolica at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on U. Catolica if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.78 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Coquimbo Unido vs U. Catolica | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Feb 2022, 23:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 23% | Draw 27% | U. Catolica 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG Coquimbo Unido 1.09 / U. Catolica 1.69 • Poisson strength factors: Coquimbo Unido attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | U. Catolica attack 1.240 / def 0.954 | league avg home 1.349 / away 1.186 • Poisson stance: U. Catolica (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Coquimbo Unido xG
Expected Goals
1.69
U. Catolica xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Coquimbo Unido vs U. Catolica kick off?
Coquimbo Unido vs U. Catolica kicked off at 23:30 on Saturday 5 February 2022 at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso.
What was the final score in Coquimbo Unido vs U. Catolica?
Coquimbo Unido 2 - 3 U. Catolica.
Where is Coquimbo Unido vs U. Catolica being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso.
What competition is Coquimbo Unido vs U. Catolica part of?
Coquimbo Unido vs U. Catolica is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Coquimbo Unido vs U. Catolica?
Our statistical model gives Coquimbo Unido a 23% chance of winning, U. Catolica a 50% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making U. Catolica the favourite.
Will both teams score in Coquimbo Unido vs U. Catolica?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Coquimbo Unido and U. Catolica will score (BTTS).
Will Coquimbo Unido vs U. Catolica have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Coquimbo Unido and U. Catolica?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Coquimbo Unido and U. Catolica in?
U. Catolica (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. U. Catolica away split: 1.80 PPG from 10 | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | CS 3.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Coquimbo Unido's attack rating (0.85) and U. Catolica's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.09 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — U. Catolica's attack (1.24x) against Coquimbo Unido's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.69.
These ratings are built from 0/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
U. Catolica Win
23%
4.31
27%
3.73
50%
2.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Coquimbo Unido xG
Total xG
2.78
1.69
U. Catolica xG
4.31
23%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
2.00
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
18%
5.42
33%
2.99
Win to Nil
4%
23.34
17%
5.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 10.4 | 8.8 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 11.4 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.2 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Coquimbo Unido vs U. Catolica?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Coquimbo Unido and U. Catolica expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Coquimbo Unido and 1.69 for U. Catolica, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Coquimbo Unido vs U. Catolica?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Coquimbo Unido
Pre-Season
U. Catolica
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to February 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Coquimbo Unido won 0-3 on 27 Jul 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Coquimbo Unido have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against U. Catolica — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Coquimbo Unido
0
Draws
4
U. Catolica
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Coquimbo Unido and U. Catolica?
From 9 meetings on record, Coquimbo Unido have won 5, U. Catolica have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Coquimbo Unido and U. Catolica last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when U. Catolica 3-1 Coquimbo Unido.
Who has won more matches between Coquimbo Unido and U. Catolica?
Coquimbo Unido have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Coquimbo Unido home games / U. Catolica away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as U. Catolica edge out Coquimbo Unido 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
U. Catolica beat Coquimbo Unido 2-3 at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso, Regular Season - 1, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Coquimbo Unido 1.09 xG and U. Catolica 1.69 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Coquimbo Unido beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. U. Catolica outscored their 1.69 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coquimbo Unido attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against U. Catolica attack 1.24 / defence 0.95, drawn from 0/32 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Coquimbo Unido 23% | Draw 27% | U. Catolica 50%, with U. Catolica to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.