Coquimbo Unido 2-2 Palestino – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Palestino at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Coquimbo Unido vs Palestino fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Palestino make the trip to Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso to face Coquimbo Unido in Primera División, Regular Season - 3. The match kicks off on Sunday 20 February 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Palestino have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: L W W D L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
When travelling in Primera División this season, Palestino have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Coquimbo Unido 1.29 xG and Palestino 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coquimbo Unido attack 0.963 / defence 1.308 | Palestino attack 1.027 / defence 0.950. League average goals — home 1.406 / away 1.202. Data: 2 Coquimbo Unido games / 34 Palestino games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 28% | Draw 29% | Palestino 43%. Fair-value odds: Coquimbo Unido 3.57 | Draw 3.45 | Palestino 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.29 / 1.61) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Palestino are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Palestino if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.90 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Coquimbo Unido vs Palestino | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Feb 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 28% | Draw 29% | Palestino 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 60% | xG Coquimbo Unido 1.29 / Palestino 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Coquimbo Unido attack 0.963 / def 1.308 | Palestino attack 1.027 / def 0.950 | league avg home 1.406 / away 1.202 • Poisson stance: Palestino (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Coquimbo Unido xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Palestino xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Coquimbo Unido vs Palestino kick off?
Coquimbo Unido vs Palestino kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 20 February 2022 at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso.
What was the final score in Coquimbo Unido vs Palestino?
Coquimbo Unido 2 - 2 Palestino.
Where is Coquimbo Unido vs Palestino being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso.
What competition is Coquimbo Unido vs Palestino part of?
Coquimbo Unido vs Palestino is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Coquimbo Unido vs Palestino?
Our statistical model gives Coquimbo Unido a 28% chance of winning, Palestino a 43% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Palestino the favourite.
Will both teams score in Coquimbo Unido vs Palestino?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Coquimbo Unido and Palestino will score (BTTS).
Will Coquimbo Unido vs Palestino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Coquimbo Unido and Palestino?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Coquimbo Unido and Palestino in?
Palestino (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. Palestino away split: 1.30 PPG from 10 | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | CS 1.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Coquimbo Unido's attack rating (0.96) and Palestino's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.29 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Palestino's attack (1.03x) against Coquimbo Unido's defence (1.31x) — and the away total comes out at 1.61.
The sample (2/34 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 0-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Palestino Win
28%
3.56
29%
3.42
43%
2.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Coquimbo Unido xG
Total xG
2.90
1.61
Palestino xG
3.56
28%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
2.34
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
20%
5.03
28%
3.62
Win to Nil
6%
17.89
12%
8.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 8.9 | 7.2 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.4 | 9.2 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.3 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.2 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Coquimbo Unido vs Palestino?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Coquimbo Unido and Palestino expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Coquimbo Unido and 1.61 for Palestino, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Coquimbo Unido vs Palestino?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Coquimbo Unido
Pre-Season
Palestino
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to February 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Palestino won 5-1 on 16 Jul 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Coquimbo Unido have gone 1W 4D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Palestino — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Coquimbo Unido
5
Draws
3
Palestino
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Coquimbo Unido and Palestino?
From 10 meetings on record, Coquimbo Unido have won 2, Palestino have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Coquimbo Unido and Palestino last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when Palestino 2-1 Coquimbo Unido.
Who has won more matches between Coquimbo Unido and Palestino?
Palestino have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Coquimbo Unido home games / Palestino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Coquimbo Unido and Palestino share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Coquimbo Unido and Palestino finished level at 2-2 at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso, Regular Season - 3, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Coquimbo Unido 1.29 xG and Palestino 1.61 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coquimbo Unido attack 0.96 / defence 1.31 against Palestino attack 1.03 / defence 0.95, drawn from 2/34 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Coquimbo Unido 28% | Draw 29% | Palestino 43%, with Palestino to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.