Coquimbo Unido 4-1 Deportes Iquique – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Coquimbo Unido at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Coquimbo Unido vs Deportes Iquique encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Coquimbo Unido host Deportes Iquique at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso in Primera División, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 19 July 2025 at 22:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primera División games this season, Coquimbo Unido have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Coquimbo Unido, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Coquimbo Unido have posted 5W 5D 0L at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Deportes Iquique stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Primera División matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Deportes Iquique, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Deportes Iquique's form when playing away from home: 0W 2D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Coquimbo Unido carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.10 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Coquimbo Unido have won 1, Deportes Iquique 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 15 Feb 2025, ended 3–0 with Coquimbo Unido winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Coquimbo Unido trading profile (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Deportes Iquique trading profile (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 96% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Coquimbo Unido 42% versus Deportes Iquique 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Coquimbo Unido 38% | Deportes Iquique 76%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Coquimbo Unido 1.49 xG and Deportes Iquique 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coquimbo Unido attack 0.837 / defence 0.694 | Deportes Iquique attack 0.992 / defence 1.187. League average goals — home 1.499 / away 1.035. Coquimbo Unido's defence rating of 0.694 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 45 Coquimbo Unido games / 45 Deportes Iquique games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 56% | Draw 26% | Deportes Iquique 18%. Fair-value odds: Coquimbo Unido 1.79 | Draw 3.85 | Deportes Iquique 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Coquimbo Unido (56%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Coquimbo Unido at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.20 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates corroborate: Coquimbo Unido 30% | Deportes Iquique 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Coquimbo Unido vs Deportes Iquique | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Jul 2025, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 56% | Draw 26% | Deportes Iquique 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 39% | xG Coquimbo Unido 1.49 / Deportes Iquique 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: Coquimbo Unido attack 0.837 / def 0.694 | Deportes Iquique attack 0.992 / def 1.187 | league avg home 1.499 / away 1.035 • Poisson stance: Coquimbo Unido (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Coquimbo Unido xG
Expected Goals
0.71
Deportes Iquique xG
39%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Coquimbo Unido vs Deportes Iquique kick off?
Coquimbo Unido vs Deportes Iquique kicked off at 22:30 on Saturday 19 July 2025 at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso.
What was the final score in Coquimbo Unido vs Deportes Iquique?
Coquimbo Unido 4 - 1 Deportes Iquique.
Where is Coquimbo Unido vs Deportes Iquique being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso.
What competition is Coquimbo Unido vs Deportes Iquique part of?
Coquimbo Unido vs Deportes Iquique is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Coquimbo Unido vs Deportes Iquique?
Our statistical model gives Coquimbo Unido a 56% chance of winning, Deportes Iquique a 18% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Coquimbo Unido the favourite.
Will both teams score in Coquimbo Unido vs Deportes Iquique?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Coquimbo Unido and Deportes Iquique will score (BTTS).
Will Coquimbo Unido vs Deportes Iquique have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Coquimbo Unido and Deportes Iquique?
Record (3 meetings): Coquimbo Unido 1W | Draws 0 | Deportes Iquique 2W.
What form are Coquimbo Unido and Deportes Iquique in?
Coquimbo Unido (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Deportes Iquique (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Coquimbo Unido's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Deportes Iquique's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.49. The same calculation in reverse, Deportes Iquique's attack versus Coquimbo Unido's defence, projects 0.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 15.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.3%), 0-0 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Coquimbo Unido Win
56%
1.79
26%
3.80
18%
5.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.3%
Home win
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Coquimbo Unido xG
Total xG
2.20
0.71
Deportes Iquique xG
1.79
56%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
5.61
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.54
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
49%
2.04
23%
4.43
Win to Nil
27%
3.65
4%
24.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 7.9 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.5 | 11.7 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.3 | 8.7 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.1 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Coquimbo Unido vs Deportes Iquique?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Coquimbo Unido and Deportes Iquique expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Coquimbo Unido and 0.71 for Deportes Iquique, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Coquimbo Unido vs Deportes Iquique?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Coquimbo Unido come into this having played 45 games, going 21W 14D 10L for 1.71 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-W. The sample for Coquimbo Unido is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Deportes Iquique sit at 1.20 PPG from 45 outings (15W 9D 21L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Deportes Iquique is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Coquimbo Unido carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.51 PPG clear of Deportes Iquique — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Coquimbo Unido's home form reads 11W 9D 2L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.91 PPG return.
Away from home, Deportes Iquique have taken 0.68 points per game from 22 outings (3W 6D 13L). That's a step down from their 1.20 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Deportes Iquique's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Coquimbo Unido come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Coquimbo Unido are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Deportes Iquique are on 1.51 scored and 1.78 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Deportes Iquique in 67%.
Defensively: Coquimbo Unido have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Coquimbo Unido
Blended
Deportes Iquique
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Coquimbo Unido and Deportes Iquique in coming into this match?
Coquimbo Unido have gone 21W 14D 10L in their last 45 games (1.71 PPG), while Deportes Iquique have gone 15W 9D 21L in their last 45 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Coquimbo Unido at home or Deportes Iquique away?
Coquimbo Unido's home record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Coquimbo Unido at home: 1.91 PPG; Deportes Iquique away: 0.68 PPG.
Have Coquimbo Unido or Deportes Iquique been keeping clean sheets recently?
Coquimbo Unido have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Deportes Iquique in 11%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Coquimbo Unido and Deportes Iquique runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 July 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Coquimbo Unido go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Feb 2025, when Coquimbo Unido won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Coquimbo Unido's record when hosting Deportes Iquique specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Coquimbo Unido
0
Draws
2
Deportes Iquique
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Coquimbo Unido and Deportes Iquique?
From 4 meetings on record, Coquimbo Unido have won 2, Deportes Iquique have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Coquimbo Unido and Deportes Iquique last play each other?
They last met on 19 July 2025, when Coquimbo Unido 4-1 Deportes Iquique.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Coquimbo Unido see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches.
Deportes Iquique are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 96% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Coquimbo Unido 41%, Deportes Iquique 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Coquimbo Unido) and 73% (Deportes Iquique).
On the defensive side: Coquimbo Unido keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Coquimbo Unido have failed to score in 27% of games; Deportes Iquique in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Coquimbo Unido home games / Deportes Iquique away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Coquimbo Unido play Deportes Iquique?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Coquimbo Unido's recent matches and 68% of Deportes Iquique's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Coquimbo Unido vs Deportes Iquique usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Coquimbo Unido's recent games and 73% of Deportes Iquique's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Coquimbo Unido and Deportes Iquique tend to score early?
Coquimbo Unido have had a goal before half-time in 46% of their recent matches, Deportes Iquique in 96% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Coquimbo Unido run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Deportes Iquique.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Coquimbo Unido beat Deportes Iquique 4-1 at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso, Regular Season - 16, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Coquimbo Unido 1.49 xG and Deportes Iquique 0.71 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Coquimbo Unido beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coquimbo Unido attack 0.84 / defence 0.69 against Deportes Iquique attack 0.99 / defence 1.19, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Coquimbo Unido 56% | Draw 26% | Deportes Iquique 18%, with Coquimbo Unido to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Coquimbo Unido 38%, Deportes Iquique 76%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Deportes Iquique's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Coquimbo Unido arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.20. Form held, and they took the win. Coquimbo Unido (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm. Deportes Iquique (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.