Coquimbo Unido 1-1 Cobresal – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Coquimbo Unido at 55% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Coquimbo Unido face Cobresal.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Coquimbo Unido welcome Cobresal to Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso in Primera División (matchday 4). Kick-off is Sunday 9 March 2025 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Coquimbo Unido — last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L W D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
In front of their own supporters, Coquimbo Unido have posted 3W 5D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Across their last 10 games, Cobresal have recorded 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone.
Cobresal's away record over their last 10 away games: 0W 4D 6L (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Coquimbo Unido) versus 1.00 (Cobresal). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 6 H2H matches we hold have produced 4 wins for Coquimbo Unido, 2 for Cobresal and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 6 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.7 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 20 Oct 2024, ended Coquimbo Unido 2–0 Cobresal — a Coquimbo Unido win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.7 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Coquimbo Unido trading profile (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Cobresal trading profile (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Coquimbo Unido 60% and Cobresal 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Coquimbo Unido 52% | Cobresal 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Coquimbo Unido 1.57 xG and Cobresal 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coquimbo Unido attack 0.917 / defence 0.828 | Cobresal attack 0.888 / defence 1.113. League average goals — home 1.542 / away 1.149. Data: built from Coquimbo Unido's last 33 games and Cobresal's last 33.
Result probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 55% | Draw 25% | Cobresal 20%. Fair-value odds: Coquimbo Unido 1.83 | Draw 3.95 | Cobresal 4.97. The model has a clear lean to Coquimbo Unido (55%) — a 30pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Coquimbo Unido at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.42 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.7 goals per game across 6 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Coquimbo Unido 40% (last 10 home games) | Cobresal 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Coquimbo Unido vs Cobresal | Competition: Primera División, matchday 4 | Venue: Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso • Kick-off: Sunday 9 March 2025 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 55% | Draw 25% | Cobresal 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Coquimbo Unido 1.57 / Cobresal 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Coquimbo Unido attack 0.917 / def 0.828 | Cobresal attack 0.888 / def 1.113 | league avg home 1.542 / away 1.149 • Poisson stance: Coquimbo Unido (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Coquimbo Unido xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Cobresal xG
45%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Coquimbo Unido vs Cobresal FAQs
What time does Coquimbo Unido vs Cobresal kick off?
Coquimbo Unido vs Cobresal kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 9 March 2025 at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso.
What was the final score in Coquimbo Unido vs Cobresal?
Coquimbo Unido 1 - 1 Cobresal.
Where is Coquimbo Unido vs Cobresal being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso.
What competition is Coquimbo Unido vs Cobresal part of?
Coquimbo Unido vs Cobresal is a Primera División fixture (matchday 4) (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Coquimbo Unido vs Cobresal?
Our statistical model gives Coquimbo Unido a 55% chance of winning, Cobresal a 20% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Coquimbo Unido the favourite.
Will both teams score in Coquimbo Unido vs Cobresal?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Coquimbo Unido and Cobresal will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Coquimbo Unido vs Cobresal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Coquimbo Unido's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Cobresal's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.57. The same calculation in reverse, Cobresal's attack versus Coquimbo Unido's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Coquimbo Unido's last 33 games and Cobresal's last 33 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.5%), 2-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Coquimbo Unido Win
55%
1.83
25%
3.95
20%
4.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Coquimbo Unido xG
Total xG
2.42
0.84
Cobresal xG
1.83
55%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
4.97
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
21%
4.82
Win to Nil
23%
4.27
4%
23.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.0 | 11.8 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.3 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.8 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Coquimbo Unido vs Cobresal Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Coquimbo Unido vs Cobresal?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Coquimbo Unido and Cobresal expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Coquimbo Unido and 0.84 for Cobresal, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Coquimbo Unido vs Cobresal?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Coquimbo Unido come into this having played 60 games, going 27W 14D 19L for 1.58 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-D-W.
On the other side, Cobresal sit at 1.43 PPG from 60 outings (23W 17D 20L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Coquimbo Unido on 1.58 PPG, Cobresal on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Coquimbo Unido's home form reads 16W 8D 6L across their last 30 home games, a 1.87 PPG return.
Away from home, Cobresal have taken 0.83 points per game from their last 30 away games (5W 10D 15L). That's a step down from their 1.43 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Cobresal's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Coquimbo Unido come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Coquimbo Unido are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Cobresal are on 1.60 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Coquimbo Unido have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Cobresal in 62%.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Coquimbo Unido
Current Season
Cobresal
Current Season
Coquimbo Unido (Home) vs Cobresal (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Coquimbo Unido
Current Season
Cobresal
Current Season
❓ Coquimbo Unido vs Cobresal Form FAQs
What form are Coquimbo Unido and Cobresal in coming into this match?
Coquimbo Unido have gone 27W 14D 19L in their last 60 games (1.58 PPG), while Cobresal have gone 23W 17D 20L in their last 60 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Coquimbo Unido at home or Cobresal away?
Coquimbo Unido's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Coquimbo Unido at home: 1.87 PPG; Cobresal away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to March 2022. All of them came in Primera División. The most recent was as recently as 12 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Coquimbo Unido's record when hosting Cobresal specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Coquimbo Unido
1
Draws
3
Cobresal
Recent Meetings
❓ Coquimbo Unido vs Cobresal H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Coquimbo Unido and Cobresal?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Coquimbo Unido have won 6, Cobresal have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Coquimbo Unido and Cobresal last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 September 2026: Cobresal 3-2 Coquimbo Unido.
Who has won more matches between Coquimbo Unido and Cobresal?
Coquimbo Unido have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Coquimbo Unido are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Cobresal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Coquimbo Unido 60%, Cobresal 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Coquimbo Unido) and 60% (Cobresal). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Coquimbo Unido keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Cobresal in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Coquimbo Unido home games / Cobresal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Coquimbo Unido vs Cobresal Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Coquimbo Unido and Cobresal matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Coquimbo Unido's games and 50% of Cobresal's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Coquimbo Unido and Cobresal matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Coquimbo Unido's matches and 60% of Cobresal's.
Do Coquimbo Unido and Cobresal matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Coquimbo Unido's recent matches and 63% of Cobresal's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Coquimbo Unido and Cobresal share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Coquimbo Unido and Cobresal finished level at 1-1 at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso, Regular Season - 4, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Coquimbo Unido 1.57 xG and Cobresal 0.84 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coquimbo Unido attack 0.92 / defence 0.83 against Cobresal attack 0.89 / defence 1.11, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Coquimbo Unido 55% | Draw 25% | Cobresal 20%, with Coquimbo Unido to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Coquimbo Unido 52%, Cobresal 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Cobresal's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Coquimbo Unido 1.58 PPG, Cobresal 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.