Colo Colo 2-0 Everton de Vina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Colo Colo (52%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Colo Colo face Everton de Vina.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Monumental David Arellano plays host to Colo Colo versus Everton de Vina in Primera División (matchday 4). Kick-off: Sunday 9 March 2025 at 23:30 UK time.
Form
Colo Colo (all games): 9W 1D 0L across their last 10 — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Colo Colo's form when playing at home: 9W 0D 1L across their last 10 home games (2.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Everton de Vina's record over their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Last five: L L W W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Everton de Vina have gone 5W 3D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 1.10 in Colo Colo's favour (2.80 vs 1.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Across the 6 H2H matches in our data, Colo Colo have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins, with Everton de Vina managing 0 and 2 draws.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 25 Aug 2024, ended Colo Colo 1–0 Everton de Vina — a Colo Colo win.
The head-to-head data gives Colo Colo an edge — 4 wins from 6 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading
Colo Colo half-time and goal-timing data (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Everton de Vina half-time and goal-timing data (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Colo Colo 43% versus Everton de Vina 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Colo Colo 43% | Everton de Vina 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Colo Colo 1.62 xG and Everton de Vina 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Colo Colo attack 0.898 / defence 0.882 | Everton de Vina attack 0.972 / defence 1.187. League average goals — home 1.517 / away 1.152. Data: built from Colo Colo's last 33 games and Everton de Vina's last 33.
Result probabilities: Colo Colo 52% | Draw 25% | Everton de Vina 23%. Fair-value odds: Colo Colo 1.92 | Draw 4.03 | Everton de Vina 4.33. Colo Colo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Colo Colo at 52% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Colo Colo if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.60 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Colo Colo 40% (last 10 home games) | Everton de Vina 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Colo Colo vs Everton de Vina | Competition: Primera División, matchday 4 | Venue: Estadio Monumental David Arellano • Kick-off: Sunday 9 March 2025 at 23:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Colo Colo 52% | Draw 25% | Everton de Vina 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Colo Colo 1.62 / Everton de Vina 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Colo Colo attack 0.898 / def 0.882 | Everton de Vina attack 0.972 / def 1.187 | league avg home 1.517 / away 1.152 • Poisson stance: Colo Colo (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Colo Colo xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Everton de Vina xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Colo Colo vs Everton de Vina FAQs
What time does Colo Colo vs Everton de Vina kick off?
Colo Colo vs Everton de Vina kicked off at 23:30 UK time on Sunday 9 March 2025 at Estadio Monumental David Arellano.
What was the final score in Colo Colo vs Everton de Vina?
Colo Colo 2 - 0 Everton de Vina.
Where is Colo Colo vs Everton de Vina being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Monumental David Arellano.
What competition is Colo Colo vs Everton de Vina part of?
Colo Colo vs Everton de Vina is a Primera División fixture (matchday 4) (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Colo Colo vs Everton de Vina?
Our statistical model gives Colo Colo a 52% chance of winning, Everton de Vina a 23% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Colo Colo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Colo Colo vs Everton de Vina?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Colo Colo and Everton de Vina will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Colo Colo vs Everton de Vina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Colo Colo's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Everton de Vina's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.62. Flip it around — Everton de Vina's attack (0.97x) against Colo Colo's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from Colo Colo's last 33 games and Everton de Vina's last 33 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.4%), 2-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Colo Colo Win
52%
1.92
25%
4.03
23%
4.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Colo Colo xG
Total xG
2.60
0.99
Everton de Vina xG
1.92
52%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
4.33
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
20%
5.03
Win to Nil
19%
5.16
5%
21.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 7.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 11.8 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.5 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Colo Colo vs Everton de Vina Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Colo Colo vs Everton de Vina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Colo Colo and Everton de Vina expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Colo Colo and 0.99 for Everton de Vina, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Colo Colo vs Everton de Vina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Colo Colo's recent record stands at 36W 13D 11L from 60 games, a 2.02 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-D in the last five.
Everton de Vina, meanwhile, have gone 25W 15D 20L across 60 games — 1.50 PPG, with L-L-W-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Colo Colo by 0.52 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Everton de Vina heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Colo Colo have managed 21W 3D 6L from their last 30 home games — 2.20 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Everton de Vina's away record stands at 13W 7D 10L across their last 30 away games, a 1.53 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Colo Colo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Colo Colo are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; Everton de Vina are on 1.48 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Everton de Vina in 62%.
Defensively: Colo Colo have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Colo Colo
Current Season
Everton de Vina
Current Season
Colo Colo (Home) vs Everton de Vina (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Colo Colo
Current Season
Everton de Vina
Current Season
❓ Colo Colo vs Everton de Vina Form FAQs
What form are Colo Colo and Everton de Vina in coming into this match?
Colo Colo have gone 36W 13D 11L in their last 60 games (2.02 PPG), while Everton de Vina have gone 25W 15D 20L in their last 60 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Colo Colo at home or Everton de Vina away?
Colo Colo's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Colo Colo at home: 2.20 PPG; Everton de Vina away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Colo Colo or Everton de Vina been keeping clean sheets recently?
Colo Colo have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Everton de Vina in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Colo Colo and Everton de Vina, the earliest from February 2022. All of them came in Primera División. The most recent was on 1 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Colo Colo have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Colo Colo won Colo Colo 4-1 Everton de Vina on 30 Mar 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Colo Colo have gone 4W 1D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Everton de Vina — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Colo Colo
3
Draws
0
Everton de Vina
Recent Meetings
❓ Colo Colo vs Everton de Vina H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Colo Colo and Everton de Vina?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Colo Colo have won 7, Everton de Vina have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Colo Colo and Everton de Vina last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 August 2026: Everton de Vina 3-4 Colo Colo.
Who has won more matches between Colo Colo and Everton de Vina?
Colo Colo have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Colo Colo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Everton de Vina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Colo Colo 43%, Everton de Vina 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Colo Colo) and 53% (Everton de Vina).
On the defensive side: Colo Colo keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Colo Colo home games / Everton de Vina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Colo Colo vs Everton de Vina Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Colo Colo and Everton de Vina matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 43% of Colo Colo's games and 70% of Everton de Vina's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Colo Colo and Everton de Vina matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Colo Colo's recent games and 53% of Everton de Vina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Colo Colo and Everton de Vina matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Colo Colo's recent matches and 83% of Everton de Vina's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Colo Colo cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Everton de Vina.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Colo Colo beat Everton de Vina 2-0 at Estadio Monumental David Arellano, Regular Season - 4, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Colo Colo 1.62 xG and Everton de Vina 0.99 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Everton de Vina landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Colo Colo attack 0.90 / defence 0.88 against Everton de Vina attack 0.97 / defence 1.19, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Colo Colo 52% | Draw 25% | Everton de Vina 23%, with Colo Colo to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Colo Colo 43%, Everton de Vina 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Colo Colo's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Everton de Vina's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Colo Colo arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 1.50. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Everton de Vina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.