Colo Colo 2-3 Coquimbo Unido – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Colo Colo at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Colo Colo vs Coquimbo Unido encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Colo Colo host Coquimbo Unido at Estadio Monumental David Arellano in Primera División, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 26 February 2023 at 23:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Colo Colo — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Primera División outings this season, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: D D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.40 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Colo Colo's home record at Estadio Monumental David Arellano: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Primera División appearances (2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.10 conceded per game. 9 clean sheets from 10 home games (90%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Monumental David Arellano. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Coquimbo Unido stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Primera División matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Coquimbo Unido away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Colo Colo carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.10 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Colo Colo, 0 for Coquimbo Unido and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Oct 2022, ended 2–0 with Colo Colo winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Colo Colo trading profile (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Coquimbo Unido trading profile (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Colo Colo 47% versus Coquimbo Unido 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Colo Colo 40% | Coquimbo Unido 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Colo Colo 1.49 xG and Coquimbo Unido 0.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Colo Colo attack 0.959 / defence 0.729 | Coquimbo Unido attack 0.709 / defence 1.018. League average goals — home 1.521 / away 1.270. Colo Colo's defence rating of 0.729 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 34 Colo Colo games / 35 Coquimbo Unido games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Colo Colo 57% | Draw 28% | Coquimbo Unido 16%. Fair-value odds: Colo Colo 1.75 | Draw 3.57 | Coquimbo Unido 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Colo Colo (57%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Colo Colo are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.14 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates corroborate: Colo Colo 10% | Coquimbo Unido 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Colo Colo vs Coquimbo Unido | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Estadio Monumental David Arellano • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Feb 2023, 23:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Colo Colo 57% | Draw 28% | Coquimbo Unido 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 38% | xG Colo Colo 1.49 / Coquimbo Unido 0.66 • Poisson strength factors: Colo Colo attack 0.959 / def 0.729 | Coquimbo Unido attack 0.709 / def 1.018 | league avg home 1.521 / away 1.270 • Poisson stance: Colo Colo (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Colo Colo xG
Expected Goals
0.66
Coquimbo Unido xG
38%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Colo Colo vs Coquimbo Unido kick off?
Colo Colo vs Coquimbo Unido kicked off at 23:30 on Sunday 26 February 2023 at Estadio Monumental David Arellano.
What was the final score in Colo Colo vs Coquimbo Unido?
Colo Colo 2 - 3 Coquimbo Unido.
Where is Colo Colo vs Coquimbo Unido being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Monumental David Arellano.
What competition is Colo Colo vs Coquimbo Unido part of?
Colo Colo vs Coquimbo Unido is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Colo Colo vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our statistical model gives Colo Colo a 57% chance of winning, Coquimbo Unido a 16% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Colo Colo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Colo Colo vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Colo Colo and Coquimbo Unido will score (BTTS).
Will Colo Colo vs Coquimbo Unido have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Colo Colo and Coquimbo Unido?
Record (2 meetings): Colo Colo 2W | Draws 0 | Coquimbo Unido 0W.
What form are Colo Colo and Coquimbo Unido in?
Colo Colo (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.40 | L5 D-D-W-W-D. Coquimbo Unido (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Colo Colo's attack rating (0.96) and Coquimbo Unido's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.49 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Coquimbo Unido's attack versus Colo Colo's defence, projects 0.66 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 2-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Colo Colo Win
57%
1.77
28%
3.61
16%
6.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.0%
Home win
0 – 0
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Colo Colo xG
Total xG
2.14
0.66
Coquimbo Unido xG
1.77
57%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
6.36
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.64
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
52%
1.93
23%
4.42
Win to Nil
29%
3.41
4%
28.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 7.7 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.4 | 11.5 | 3.8 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.0 | 8.5 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.4 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Colo Colo vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.9%.
How many goals are Colo Colo and Coquimbo Unido expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Colo Colo and 0.66 for Coquimbo Unido, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Colo Colo vs Coquimbo Unido?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Colo Colo come into this having played 30 games, going 18W 9D 3L for 2.10 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-W-D.
On the other side, Coquimbo Unido sit at 0.90 PPG from 30 outings (7W 6D 17L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-D across their last five.
Colo Colo carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.20 PPG clear of Coquimbo Unido — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Colo Colo's home form reads 11W 4D 0L across 15 games on their own ground, a 2.47 PPG return.
Away from home, Coquimbo Unido have taken 0.60 points per game from 15 outings (2W 3D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Colo Colo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Colo Colo are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.57 conceded per game recently; Coquimbo Unido are on 1.07 scored and 1.73 conceded.
Defensively: Colo Colo have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Colo Colo
Current Season
Coquimbo Unido
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Colo Colo and Coquimbo Unido in coming into this match?
Colo Colo have gone 18W 9D 3L in their last 30 games (2.10 PPG), while Coquimbo Unido have gone 7W 6D 17L in their last 30 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Colo Colo at home or Coquimbo Unido away?
Colo Colo's home record (2.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Colo Colo at home: 2.47 PPG; Coquimbo Unido away: 0.60 PPG.
Have Colo Colo or Coquimbo Unido been keeping clean sheets recently?
Colo Colo have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Coquimbo Unido in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 May 2022, when Colo Colo won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Colo Colo's record when hosting Coquimbo Unido specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Colo Colo
2
Draws
2
Coquimbo Unido
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Colo Colo and Coquimbo Unido?
From 9 meetings on record, Colo Colo have won 5, Coquimbo Unido have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Colo Colo and Coquimbo Unido last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Colo Colo 3-1 Coquimbo Unido.
Who has won more matches between Colo Colo and Coquimbo Unido?
Colo Colo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Colo Colo see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Coquimbo Unido are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Colo Colo 27%, Coquimbo Unido 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Colo Colo) and 53% (Coquimbo Unido).
On the defensive side: Colo Colo keep a clean sheet in 73% of their matches; Coquimbo Unido in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Colo Colo home games / Coquimbo Unido away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Colo Colo play Coquimbo Unido?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 27% of Colo Colo's recent matches and 53% of Coquimbo Unido's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Colo Colo vs Coquimbo Unido usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Colo Colo's recent games and 53% of Coquimbo Unido's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Colo Colo and Coquimbo Unido tend to score early?
Colo Colo have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Coquimbo Unido in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Coquimbo Unido defy the odds to beat Colo Colo 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Coquimbo Unido beat Colo Colo 2-3 at Estadio Monumental David Arellano, Regular Season - 6, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Colo Colo 1.49 xG and Coquimbo Unido 0.66 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Coquimbo Unido outscored their 0.66 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Colo Colo attack 0.96 / defence 0.73 against Coquimbo Unido attack 0.71 / defence 1.02, drawn from 34/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Colo Colo 57% | Draw 28% | Coquimbo Unido 16%, with Colo Colo to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Coquimbo Unido win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Colo Colo 40%, Coquimbo Unido 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Colo Colo's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Colo Colo arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 0.90. Form was overturned, with Coquimbo Unido winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Colo Colo (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Coquimbo Unido (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.73 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.