Cobresal 1-1 D. Melipilla – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cobresal at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cobresal vs D. Melipilla fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Cobresal and D. Melipilla meet at Estadio El Cobre in Primera División, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 28 July 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Cobresal's overall Primera División record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D W L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cobresal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cobresal's home record at Estadio El Cobre: 3W 0D 2L from 5 Primera División appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Cobresal are significantly better at Estadio El Cobre than their overall form suggests.
D. Melipilla (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Primera División outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: D L W L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for D. Melipilla, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, D. Melipilla have gone 2W 0D 4L from 6 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 17% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
Cobresal — key trading statistics (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
D. Melipilla — key trading statistics (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cobresal 54% versus D. Melipilla 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cobresal 46% | D. Melipilla 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cobresal 1.37 xG and D. Melipilla 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cobresal attack 0.990 / defence 1.107 | D. Melipilla attack 0.819 / defence 1.422. League average goals — home 0.971 / away 0.927. D. Melipilla bring a strong defensive rating of 1.422 — this is suppressing Cobresal's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 11 Cobresal games / 12 D. Melipilla games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cobresal 47% | Draw 33% | D. Melipilla 21%. Fair-value odds: Cobresal 2.13 | Draw 3.03 | D. Melipilla 4.76. Cobresal hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cobresal are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cobresal if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.21 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: Cobresal 40% | D. Melipilla 17% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cobresal vs D. Melipilla | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Estadio El Cobre • Kick-off: Wednesday 28 Jul 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cobresal 47% | Draw 33% | D. Melipilla 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Cobresal 1.37 / D. Melipilla 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Cobresal attack 0.990 / def 1.107 | D. Melipilla attack 0.819 / def 1.422 | league avg home 0.971 / away 0.927 • Poisson stance: Cobresal (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Cobresal xG
Expected Goals
0.84
D. Melipilla xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cobresal vs D. Melipilla kick off?
Cobresal vs D. Melipilla kicked off at 16:00 on Wednesday 28 July 2021 at Estadio El Cobre.
What was the final score in Cobresal vs D. Melipilla?
Cobresal 1 - 1 D. Melipilla.
Where is Cobresal vs D. Melipilla being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Cobre.
What competition is Cobresal vs D. Melipilla part of?
Cobresal vs D. Melipilla is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Cobresal vs D. Melipilla?
Our statistical model gives Cobresal a 47% chance of winning, D. Melipilla a 21% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Cobresal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cobresal vs D. Melipilla?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Cobresal and D. Melipilla will score (BTTS).
Will Cobresal vs D. Melipilla have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cobresal and D. Melipilla?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cobresal and D. Melipilla in?
Cobresal (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-L-D. D. Melipilla (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Cobresal's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against D. Melipilla's defensive record (1.42x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.37. Flip it around — D. Melipilla's attack (0.82x) against Cobresal's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 0.84.
These ratings are built from 11/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.4%), 0-0 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cobresal Win
47%
2.14
33%
3.07
21%
4.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Cobresal xG
Total xG
2.21
0.84
D. Melipilla xG
2.14
47%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
4.84
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
43%
2.32
25%
3.93
Win to Nil
20%
4.95
5%
19.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 9.2 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.0 | 12.6 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 8.6 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.7 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cobresal vs D. Melipilla?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Cobresal and D. Melipilla expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Cobresal and 0.84 for D. Melipilla, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Cobresal vs D. Melipilla?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 11 outings, Cobresal have picked up 1.09 PPG on a 3W 3D 5L record — D-W-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Cobresal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
D. Melipilla's form line: 4W 3D 4L from 11 games, 1.36 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-D. The sample for D. Melipilla is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.09 PPG for Cobresal against 1.36 for D. Melipilla. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Cobresal have posted 1.80 PPG from 5 outings (3W 0D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.09 PPG overall — Cobresal are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, D. Melipilla have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 away games — 1.20 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cobresal come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cobresal are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; D. Melipilla are on 1.45 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Defensively: Cobresal have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cobresal
Blended
D. Melipilla
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cobresal and D. Melipilla in coming into this match?
Cobresal have gone 3W 3D 5L in their last 11 games (1.09 PPG), while D. Melipilla have gone 4W 3D 4L in their last 11 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cobresal at home or D. Melipilla away?
Cobresal's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cobresal at home: 1.80 PPG; D. Melipilla away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Cobresal or D. Melipilla been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cobresal have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, D. Melipilla in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 November 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Cobresal
1
Draws
1
D. Melipilla
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cobresal and D. Melipilla?
From 2 meetings on record, Cobresal have won 0, D. Melipilla have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cobresal and D. Melipilla last play each other?
They last met on 3 November 2021, when D. Melipilla 2-1 Cobresal.
Who has won more matches between Cobresal and D. Melipilla?
D. Melipilla have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cobresal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
D. Melipilla are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 40% (Cobresal) and 20% (D. Melipilla) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Cobresal) and 40% (D. Melipilla).
On the defensive side: Cobresal keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; D. Melipilla in 40%; D. Melipilla in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cobresal home games / D. Melipilla away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cobresal play D. Melipilla?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Cobresal's recent matches and 20% of D. Melipilla's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cobresal vs D. Melipilla usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Cobresal's recent games and 40% of D. Melipilla's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cobresal and D. Melipilla tend to score early?
Cobresal have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, D. Melipilla in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cobresal and D. Melipilla share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cobresal and D. Melipilla finished level at 1-1 at Estadio El Cobre, Regular Season - 13, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cobresal 1.37 xG and D. Melipilla 0.84 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cobresal attack 0.99 / defence 1.11 against D. Melipilla attack 0.82 / defence 1.42, drawn from 11/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cobresal 47% | Draw 33% | D. Melipilla 21%, with Cobresal to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cobresal 46%, D. Melipilla 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cobresal's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
D. Melipilla's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cobresal 1.09 PPG, D. Melipilla 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.