Cobreloa 0-1 Colo Colo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Colo Colo at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cobreloa vs Colo Colo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primera División encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Colo Colo travel to Estadio Zorros del Desierto to take on Cobreloa. The game is scheduled for Sunday 1 September 2024, 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cobreloa stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Primera División matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Cobreloa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estadio Zorros del Desierto, Cobreloa have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Cobreloa are significantly better at Estadio Zorros del Desierto than their overall form suggests.
Across all Primera División games this season, Colo Colo have recorded 8W 1D 1L from 10 outings — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Colo Colo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Colo Colo's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.80 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Colo Colo — 1.40 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.50 vs 1.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Cobreloa have won 1, Colo Colo 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Apr 2024, ended 2–0 with Cobreloa winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Cobreloa trading profile (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Colo Colo trading profile (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 18% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cobreloa 46% versus Colo Colo 32%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cobreloa 68% | Colo Colo 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cobreloa 0.88 xG and Colo Colo 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cobreloa attack 0.916 / defence 1.086 | Colo Colo attack 1.037 / defence 0.643. League average goals — home 1.498 / away 1.213. Colo Colo's defence strength of 0.643 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 22 Cobreloa games / 51 Colo Colo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cobreloa 24% | Draw 28% | Colo Colo 48%. Fair-value odds: Cobreloa 4.17 | Draw 3.57 | Colo Colo 2.08. Colo Colo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Colo Colo as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Colo Colo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.25 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Cobreloa 50% | Colo Colo 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cobreloa vs Colo Colo | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Estadio Zorros del Desierto • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Sep 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cobreloa 24% | Draw 28% | Colo Colo 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 44% | xG Cobreloa 0.88 / Colo Colo 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Cobreloa attack 0.916 / def 1.086 | Colo Colo attack 1.037 / def 0.643 | league avg home 1.498 / away 1.213 • Poisson stance: Colo Colo (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Cobreloa xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Colo Colo xG
44%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cobreloa vs Colo Colo kick off?
Cobreloa vs Colo Colo kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 1 September 2024 at Estadio Zorros del Desierto.
What was the final score in Cobreloa vs Colo Colo?
Cobreloa 0 - 1 Colo Colo.
Where is Cobreloa vs Colo Colo being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Zorros del Desierto.
What competition is Cobreloa vs Colo Colo part of?
Cobreloa vs Colo Colo is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Cobreloa vs Colo Colo?
Our statistical model gives Cobreloa a 24% chance of winning, Colo Colo a 48% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Colo Colo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cobreloa vs Colo Colo?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Cobreloa and Colo Colo will score (BTTS).
Will Cobreloa vs Colo Colo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cobreloa and Colo Colo?
Record (1 meetings): Cobreloa 1W | Draws 0 | Colo Colo 0W.
What form are Cobreloa and Colo Colo in?
Cobreloa (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Colo Colo (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Cobreloa's attack rating (0.92) and Colo Colo's defence rating (0.64), the model arrives at 0.88 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Colo Colo's attack versus Cobreloa's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.8%), 0-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Colo Colo Win
24%
4.18
28%
3.53
48%
2.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Cobreloa xG
Total xG
2.25
1.36
Colo Colo xG
4.18
24%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
2.09
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
26%
3.92
41%
2.42
Win to Nil
6%
16.38
20%
5.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 14.4 | 9.8 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.7 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 5.6 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cobreloa vs Colo Colo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Cobreloa and Colo Colo expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Cobreloa and 1.36 for Colo Colo, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Cobreloa vs Colo Colo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cobreloa come into this having played 22 games, going 7W 3D 12L for 1.09 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-W. The sample for Cobreloa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Colo Colo sit at 2.05 PPG from 22 outings (14W 3D 5L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Colo Colo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Colo Colo carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.96 PPG clear of Cobreloa — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Cobreloa's home form reads 5W 2D 4L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.55 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.09 PPG overall — Cobreloa are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Colo Colo have taken 1.91 points per game from 11 outings (6W 3D 2L).
Goals in Recent Form
Cobreloa are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 2.23 conceded per game recently; Colo Colo are on 1.55 scored and 0.73 conceded.
Defensively: Colo Colo in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cobreloa
Blended
Colo Colo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cobreloa and Colo Colo in coming into this match?
Cobreloa have gone 7W 3D 12L in their last 22 games (1.09 PPG), while Colo Colo have gone 14W 3D 5L in their last 22 (2.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cobreloa at home or Colo Colo away?
Colo Colo's away record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cobreloa at home: 1.55 PPG; Colo Colo away: 1.91 PPG.
Have Cobreloa or Colo Colo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cobreloa have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Colo Colo in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 September 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Cobreloa
0
Draws
1
Colo Colo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cobreloa and Colo Colo?
From 2 meetings on record, Cobreloa have won 1, Colo Colo have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cobreloa and Colo Colo last play each other?
They last met on 1 September 2024, when Cobreloa 0-1 Colo Colo.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cobreloa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Colo Colo see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cobreloa 54%, Colo Colo 18% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Cobreloa) and 46% (Colo Colo).
On the defensive side: Colo Colo in 64%; Colo Colo in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cobreloa home games / Colo Colo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cobreloa play Colo Colo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Cobreloa's recent matches and 18% of Colo Colo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cobreloa vs Colo Colo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Cobreloa's recent games and 46% of Colo Colo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cobreloa and Colo Colo tend to score early?
Cobreloa have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Colo Colo in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Colo Colo edge out Cobreloa 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Colo Colo beat Cobreloa 0-1 at Estadio Zorros del Desierto, Regular Season - 23, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cobreloa 0.88 xG and Colo Colo 1.36 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Cobreloa fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cobreloa attack 0.92 / defence 1.09 against Colo Colo attack 1.04 / defence 0.64, drawn from 22/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cobreloa 24% | Draw 28% | Colo Colo 48%, with Colo Colo to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cobreloa 68%, Colo Colo 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cobreloa's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Colo Colo's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Colo Colo arrived the stronger side — 2.05 PPG against 1.09. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Cobreloa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.