Antofagasta 2-1 Coquimbo Unido – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Antofagasta at 64%, yet other data sources diverge — this Antofagasta vs Coquimbo Unido fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primera División clash, Regular Season - 20 as Antofagasta welcome Coquimbo Unido to Estadio Regional Calvo y Bascuñán. Kick-off is set for Saturday 30 July 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primera División games this season, Antofagasta have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Antofagasta, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Antofagasta's form when playing at home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 games at Estadio Regional Calvo y Bascuñán this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Coquimbo Unido — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Primera División fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Coquimbo Unido, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Coquimbo Unido away from home this season: 0W 2D 7L from 9 away games — 0.22 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.56 goals scored and 2.44 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.22 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Antofagasta at 0.90 PPG versus Coquimbo Unido's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Antofagasta, 1 for Coquimbo Unido and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 Mar 2022, ended 2–3 with Coquimbo Unido winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Antofagasta in-play and half-time data (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Coquimbo Unido in-play and half-time data (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antofagasta 42% versus Coquimbo Unido 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antofagasta 37% | Coquimbo Unido 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antofagasta 2.01 xG and Coquimbo Unido 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antofagasta attack 0.872 / defence 1.120 | Coquimbo Unido attack 0.706 / defence 1.540. League average goals — home 1.496 / away 1.105. Coquimbo Unido bring a strong defensive rating of 1.540 — this is suppressing Antofagasta's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 51 Antofagasta games / 19 Coquimbo Unido games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Antofagasta 64% | Draw 21% | Coquimbo Unido 16%. Fair-value odds: Antofagasta 1.56 | Draw 4.76 | Coquimbo Unido 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Antofagasta (64%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Antofagasta as the most likely outcome at 64% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.88 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Antofagasta 40% | Coquimbo Unido 56%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antofagasta vs Coquimbo Unido | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Estadio Regional Calvo y Bascuñán • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Jul 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antofagasta 64% | Draw 21% | Coquimbo Unido 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 50% | xG Antofagasta 2.01 / Coquimbo Unido 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Antofagasta attack 0.872 / def 1.120 | Coquimbo Unido attack 0.706 / def 1.540 | league avg home 1.496 / away 1.105 • Poisson stance: Antofagasta (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.01
Antofagasta xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Coquimbo Unido xG
50%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antofagasta vs Coquimbo Unido kick off?
Antofagasta vs Coquimbo Unido kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 30 July 2022 at Estadio Regional Calvo y Bascuñán.
What was the final score in Antofagasta vs Coquimbo Unido?
Antofagasta 2 - 1 Coquimbo Unido.
Where is Antofagasta vs Coquimbo Unido being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Regional Calvo y Bascuñán.
What competition is Antofagasta vs Coquimbo Unido part of?
Antofagasta vs Coquimbo Unido is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Antofagasta vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our statistical model gives Antofagasta a 64% chance of winning, Coquimbo Unido a 16% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Antofagasta the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antofagasta vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Antofagasta and Coquimbo Unido will score (BTTS).
Will Antofagasta vs Coquimbo Unido have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antofagasta and Coquimbo Unido?
Record (1 meetings): Antofagasta 0W | Draws 0 | Coquimbo Unido 1W.
What form are Antofagasta and Coquimbo Unido in?
Antofagasta (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Coquimbo Unido (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Antofagasta's attack rating (0.87) and Coquimbo Unido's defence rating (1.54), the model arrives at 2.01 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Coquimbo Unido's attack versus Antofagasta's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.1%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Antofagasta Win
64%
1.57
21%
4.84
16%
6.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.01
Antofagasta xG
Total xG
2.88
0.87
Coquimbo Unido xG
1.57
64%
Home win
4.84
21%
Draw
6.45
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
42%
2.39
13%
7.46
Win to Nil
27%
3.75
2%
48.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.3 | 9.8 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.9 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.6 | 6.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.8 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antofagasta vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Antofagasta and Coquimbo Unido expected to score?
The model projects 2.01 expected goals for Antofagasta and 0.87 for Coquimbo Unido, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Antofagasta vs Coquimbo Unido?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 19 outings, Antofagasta have picked up 0.79 PPG on a 3W 6D 10L record — L-L-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Antofagasta is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Coquimbo Unido's form line: 4W 4D 11L from 19 games, 0.84 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-W. The sample for Coquimbo Unido is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Antofagasta on 0.79 PPG, Coquimbo Unido on 0.84. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Antofagasta have posted 0.89 PPG from 9 outings (1W 5D 3L).
On the road, Coquimbo Unido have gone 0W 2D 7L from 9 away games — 0.22 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.84 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Coquimbo Unido's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Antofagasta come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Antofagasta are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Coquimbo Unido are on 1.16 scored and 2.05 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Coquimbo Unido in 63%.
Last 19 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antofagasta
Blended
Coquimbo Unido
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Antofagasta and Coquimbo Unido in coming into this match?
Antofagasta have gone 3W 6D 10L in their last 19 games (0.79 PPG), while Coquimbo Unido have gone 4W 4D 11L in their last 19 (0.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antofagasta at home or Coquimbo Unido away?
Antofagasta's home record (0.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antofagasta at home: 0.89 PPG; Coquimbo Unido away: 0.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 July 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Antofagasta
0
Draws
1
Coquimbo Unido
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antofagasta and Coquimbo Unido?
From 2 meetings on record, Antofagasta have won 1, Coquimbo Unido have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Antofagasta and Coquimbo Unido last play each other?
They last met on 30 July 2022, when Antofagasta 2-1 Coquimbo Unido.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Antofagasta see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Coquimbo Unido are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antofagasta 44%, Coquimbo Unido 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Antofagasta) and 56% (Coquimbo Unido).
On the defensive side: Antofagasta keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Antofagasta have failed to score in 44% of games; Coquimbo Unido in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antofagasta home games / Coquimbo Unido away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Antofagasta play Coquimbo Unido?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Antofagasta's recent matches and 56% of Coquimbo Unido's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Antofagasta vs Coquimbo Unido usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Antofagasta's recent games and 56% of Coquimbo Unido's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Antofagasta and Coquimbo Unido tend to score early?
Antofagasta have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Coquimbo Unido in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Antofagasta edge out Coquimbo Unido 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antofagasta beat Coquimbo Unido 2-1 at Estadio Regional Calvo y Bascuñán, Regular Season - 20, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antofagasta 2.01 xG and Coquimbo Unido 0.87 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antofagasta attack 0.87 / defence 1.12 against Coquimbo Unido attack 0.71 / defence 1.54, drawn from 51/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antofagasta 64% | Draw 21% | Coquimbo Unido 16%, with Antofagasta to win its most likely call at 64%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antofagasta 37%, Coquimbo Unido 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antofagasta's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Antofagasta 0.79 PPG, Coquimbo Unido 0.84 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Antofagasta win broke the near-deadlock. Antofagasta (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.