A. Italiano 2-1 Universidad de Chile – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as A. Italiano take on Universidad de Chile.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio El Teniente plays host to A. Italiano versus Universidad de Chile in Primera División, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Tuesday 1 June 2021 at 01:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects A. Italiano 0.83 xG and Universidad de Chile 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: A. Italiano attack 0.840 / defence 0.862 | Universidad de Chile attack 0.797 / defence 1.025. League average goals — home 0.962 / away 1.011. Data: 7 A. Italiano games / 7 Universidad de Chile games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: A. Italiano 36% | Draw 36% | Universidad de Chile 28%. Fair-value odds: A. Italiano 2.78 | Draw 2.78 | Universidad de Chile 3.57. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 20% | BTTS probability 28% | Total xG 1.52. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 80% probability — total xG of 1.52 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 72% — Universidad de Chile's lower xG of 0.69 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 28%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 28% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 20% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: A. Italiano vs Universidad de Chile | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Estadio El Teniente • Kick-off: Tuesday 1 Jun 2021, 01:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: A. Italiano 36% | Draw 36% | Universidad de Chile 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 20% | BTTS 28% | xG A. Italiano 0.83 / Universidad de Chile 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: A. Italiano attack 0.840 / def 0.862 | Universidad de Chile attack 0.797 / def 1.025 | league avg home 0.962 / away 1.011 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.83
A. Italiano xG
Expected Goals
0.69
Universidad de Chile xG
28%
BTTS
45%
Over 1.5
20%
Over 2.5
7%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does A. Italiano vs Universidad de Chile kick off?
A. Italiano vs Universidad de Chile kicked off at 01:30 on Tuesday 1 June 2021 at Estadio El Teniente.
What was the final score in A. Italiano vs Universidad de Chile?
A. Italiano 2 - 1 Universidad de Chile.
Where is A. Italiano vs Universidad de Chile being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Teniente.
What competition is A. Italiano vs Universidad de Chile part of?
A. Italiano vs Universidad de Chile is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win A. Italiano vs Universidad de Chile?
Our statistical model gives A. Italiano a 36% chance of winning, Universidad de Chile a 28% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in A. Italiano vs Universidad de Chile?
Our model estimates a 28% probability that both A. Italiano and Universidad de Chile will score (BTTS).
Will A. Italiano vs Universidad de Chile have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 20%.
What is the head-to-head record between A. Italiano and Universidad de Chile?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are A. Italiano and Universidad de Chile in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
A. Italiano's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Universidad de Chile's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.83. Flip it around — Universidad de Chile's attack (0.80x) against A. Italiano's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.69.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 23.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (16.4%), 1-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 54% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
36%
2.80
36%
2.76
28%
3.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
21.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
18.1%
Home win
0 – 1
15.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.83
A. Italiano xG
Total xG
1.52
0.69
Universidad de Chile xG
2.80
36%
Home win
2.76
36%
Draw
3.58
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
45%
Over 1.5
2.22
55%
Under 1.5
1.82
20%
Over 2.5
5.00
80%
Under 2.5
1.25
7%
Over 3.5
14.29
93%
Under 3.5
1.08
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
28%
BTTS Yes
3.55
72%
BTTS No
1.39
Clean Sheet
50%
2.00
44%
2.29
Win to Nil
18%
5.60
12%
8.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 21.8 | 15.1 | 5.3 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 18.1 | 12.5 | 4.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 7.5 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for A. Italiano vs Universidad de Chile?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 23.5%.
How many goals are A. Italiano and Universidad de Chile expected to score?
The model projects 0.83 expected goals for A. Italiano and 0.69 for Universidad de Chile, a combined total of 1.52.
How confident is the prediction model for A. Italiano vs Universidad de Chile?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
A. Italiano
Pre-Season
Universidad de Chile
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, A. Italiano have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Universidad de Chile — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
A. Italiano
2
Draws
4
Universidad de Chile
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between A. Italiano and Universidad de Chile?
From 10 meetings on record, A. Italiano have won 4, Universidad de Chile have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did A. Italiano and Universidad de Chile last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when A. Italiano 1-2 Universidad de Chile.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = A. Italiano home games / Universidad de Chile away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as A. Italiano edge out Universidad de Chile 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
A. Italiano beat Universidad de Chile 2-1 at Estadio El Teniente, Regular Season - 9, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting A. Italiano 0.83 xG and Universidad de Chile 0.69 xG, a combined 1.52. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. A. Italiano beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of A. Italiano attack 0.84 / defence 0.86 against Universidad de Chile attack 0.80 / defence 1.02, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it A. Italiano 36% | Draw 36% | Universidad de Chile 28%, with A. Italiano to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 20%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 45% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 28% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.