Universidad de Chile 1-2 Coquimbo Unido – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Universidad de Chile at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Universidad de Chile face Coquimbo Unido.

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Analysis & Preview

Coquimbo Unido travel to Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK to take on Universidad de Chile in Primera División (matchday 28). The game is scheduled for Friday 24 November 2023 at 21:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Universidad de Chile have gone 2W 2D 6L — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: D L W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

Universidad de Chile's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 5D 3L (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Coquimbo Unido — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

On the road, Coquimbo Unido have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Universidad de Chile) versus 1.20 (Coquimbo Unido). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Universidad de Chile have won 0, Coquimbo Unido 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Scoring has been limited in the 3 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.3 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 10 May 2023, ended Universidad de Chile 1–2 Coquimbo Unido — a Coquimbo Unido win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Universidad de Chile in-play and half-time data (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).

Coquimbo Unido in-play and half-time data (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Universidad de Chile 61% and Coquimbo Unido 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Universidad de Chile 54% | Coquimbo Unido 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Universidad de Chile 1.41 xG and Coquimbo Unido 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Universidad de Chile attack 0.939 / defence 0.988 | Coquimbo Unido attack 1.012 / defence 1.054. League average goals — home 1.420 / away 1.354. Data: built from Universidad de Chile's last 57 games and Coquimbo Unido's last 57.

Result probabilities: Universidad de Chile 38% | Draw 25% | Coquimbo Unido 36%. Fair-value odds: Universidad de Chile 2.60 | Draw 3.92 | Coquimbo Unido 2.77. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Universidad de Chile as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Universidad de Chile offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.76 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging only 1.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.

Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Universidad de Chile 50% (last 10 home games) | Coquimbo Unido 70% (last 10 away games).

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