Everton de Vina 0-0 Deportes Limache – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Everton de Vina at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Everton de Vina vs Deportes Limache fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Everton de Vina host Deportes Limache at Estadio Sausalito in Primera División, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 19 July 2025 at 00:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Everton de Vina — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Primera División outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W D D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Everton de Vina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Everton de Vina have posted 2W 4D 4L at Estadio Sausalito — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Across all Primera División games this season, Deportes Limache have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Deportes Limache, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Deportes Limache away from home this season: 0W 3D 4L from 7 away games — 0.43 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.14 goals scored and 2.14 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.43 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Everton de Vina 1.20 PPG, Deportes Limache 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Everton de Vina, 0 for Deportes Limache and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Feb 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Everton de Vina in-play tendencies (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Deportes Limache in-play tendencies (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Everton de Vina 53% and Deportes Limache 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton de Vina 53% | Deportes Limache 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton de Vina 1.62 xG and Deportes Limache 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton de Vina attack 0.839 / defence 1.054 | Deportes Limache attack 0.924 / defence 1.287. League average goals — home 1.498 / away 1.049. Deportes Limache bring a strong defensive rating of 1.287 — this is suppressing Everton de Vina's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 45 Everton de Vina games / 15 Deportes Limache games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Everton de Vina 51% | Draw 25% | Deportes Limache 24%. Fair-value odds: Everton de Vina 1.96 | Draw 4.00 | Deportes Limache 4.17. Everton de Vina hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Everton de Vina are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Everton de Vina offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.64 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Everton de Vina 50% | Deportes Limache 100% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton de Vina vs Deportes Limache | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Estadio Sausalito • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Jul 2025, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton de Vina 51% | Draw 25% | Deportes Limache 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 51% | xG Everton de Vina 1.62 / Deportes Limache 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Everton de Vina attack 0.839 / def 1.054 | Deportes Limache attack 0.924 / def 1.287 | league avg home 1.498 / away 1.049 • Poisson stance: Everton de Vina (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Everton de Vina xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Deportes Limache xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Everton de Vina vs Deportes Limache kick off?
Everton de Vina vs Deportes Limache kicked off at 00:00 on Saturday 19 July 2025 at Estadio Sausalito.
What was the final score in Everton de Vina vs Deportes Limache?
Everton de Vina 0 - 0 Deportes Limache.
Where is Everton de Vina vs Deportes Limache being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Sausalito.
What competition is Everton de Vina vs Deportes Limache part of?
Everton de Vina vs Deportes Limache is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Everton de Vina vs Deportes Limache?
Our statistical model gives Everton de Vina a 51% chance of winning, Deportes Limache a 24% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Everton de Vina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton de Vina vs Deportes Limache?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Everton de Vina and Deportes Limache will score (BTTS).
Will Everton de Vina vs Deportes Limache have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and Deportes Limache?
Record (1 meetings): Everton de Vina 0W | Draws 1 | Deportes Limache 0W.
What form are Everton de Vina and Deportes Limache in?
Everton de Vina (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-D-W-L. Deportes Limache (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Everton de Vina's attack rating (0.84) and Deportes Limache's defence rating (1.29), the model arrives at 1.62 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Deportes Limache's attack versus Everton de Vina's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton de Vina Win
51%
1.95
25%
4.03
24%
4.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Everton de Vina xG
Total xG
2.64
1.02
Deportes Limache xG
1.95
51%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
4.18
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
20%
5.04
Win to Nil
18%
5.42
5%
21.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 7.3 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 11.8 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.5 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton de Vina vs Deportes Limache?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Everton de Vina and Deportes Limache expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Everton de Vina and 1.02 for Deportes Limache, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton de Vina vs Deportes Limache?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Everton de Vina come into this having played 15 games, going 3W 5D 7L for 0.93 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-W-L. The sample for Everton de Vina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Deportes Limache sit at 0.87 PPG from 15 outings (3W 4D 8L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Deportes Limache is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Everton de Vina on 0.93 PPG, Deportes Limache on 0.87. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Everton de Vina's home form reads 1W 4D 2L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Deportes Limache have taken 0.43 points per game from 7 outings (0W 3D 4L). That's a step down from their 0.87 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Deportes Limache's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Everton de Vina come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Everton de Vina are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Deportes Limache are on 1.13 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Deportes Limache in 67%.
Last 15 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton de Vina
Blended
Deportes Limache
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Everton de Vina and Deportes Limache in coming into this match?
Everton de Vina have gone 3W 5D 7L in their last 15 games (0.93 PPG), while Deportes Limache have gone 3W 4D 8L in their last 15 (0.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton de Vina at home or Deportes Limache away?
Everton de Vina's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton de Vina at home: 1.00 PPG; Deportes Limache away: 0.43 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Everton de Vina and Deportes Limache runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Everton de Vina go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Aug 2026, when Everton de Vina won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Everton de Vina's record when hosting Deportes Limache specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Everton de Vina
2
Draws
0
Deportes Limache
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and Deportes Limache?
From 4 meetings on record, Everton de Vina have won 2, Deportes Limache have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Everton de Vina and Deportes Limache last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Deportes Limache 0-3 Everton de Vina.
Who has won more matches between Everton de Vina and Deportes Limache?
Everton de Vina have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Everton de Vina see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Deportes Limache are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 57% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Everton de Vina at 57%, Deportes Limache at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Everton de Vina) and 71% (Deportes Limache).
On the defensive side: Everton de Vina have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton de Vina home games / Deportes Limache away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Everton de Vina play Deportes Limache?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Everton de Vina's games and 100% of Deportes Limache's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Everton de Vina vs Deportes Limache usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Everton de Vina's recent games and 71% of Deportes Limache's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Everton de Vina and Deportes Limache tend to score early?
Everton de Vina have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Deportes Limache in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Everton de Vina's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Sausalito, Regular Season - 16, as Everton de Vina and Deportes Limache drew 0-0 in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton de Vina 1.62 xG and Deportes Limache 1.02 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Everton de Vina fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Deportes Limache landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton de Vina attack 0.84 / defence 1.05 against Deportes Limache attack 0.92 / defence 1.29, drawn from 45/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Everton de Vina 51% | Draw 25% | Deportes Limache 24%, with Everton de Vina to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton de Vina 53%, Deportes Limache 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Everton de Vina's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Deportes Limache's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Everton de Vina 0.93 PPG, Deportes Limache 0.87 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Everton de Vina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Deportes Limache (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.