Everton de Vina 0-0 Curico Unido – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Everton de Vina at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Everton de Vina vs Curico Unido fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primera División encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Curico Unido travel to Estadio Sausalito to take on Everton de Vina. The game is scheduled for Sunday 26 September 2021, 00:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Everton de Vina stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Primera División matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Everton de Vina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Everton de Vina's home record at Estadio Sausalito: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Primera División appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Sausalito. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Primera División games this season, Curico Unido have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D W D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Curico Unido, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Curico Unido have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Everton de Vina 1.30 PPG, Curico Unido 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Everton de Vina, 0 for Curico Unido and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Apr 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Everton de Vina trading profile (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Curico Unido trading profile (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton de Vina 30% versus Curico Unido 60%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Everton de Vina 20% | Curico Unido 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton de Vina 1.08 xG and Curico Unido 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton de Vina attack 0.842 / defence 0.972 | Curico Unido attack 0.740 / defence 1.141. League average goals — home 1.121 / away 1.182. Data: 20 Everton de Vina games / 20 Curico Unido games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Everton de Vina 38% | Draw 36% | Curico Unido 26%. Fair-value odds: Everton de Vina 2.63 | Draw 2.78 | Curico Unido 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.93. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.93 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Everton de Vina are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Everton de Vina offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.93 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 30% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates corroborate: Everton de Vina 30% | Curico Unido 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton de Vina vs Curico Unido | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Estadio Sausalito • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Sep 2021, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton de Vina 38% | Draw 36% | Curico Unido 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 40% | xG Everton de Vina 1.08 / Curico Unido 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Everton de Vina attack 0.842 / def 0.972 | Curico Unido attack 0.740 / def 1.141 | league avg home 1.121 / away 1.182 • Poisson stance: Everton de Vina (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Everton de Vina xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Curico Unido xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Everton de Vina vs Curico Unido kick off?
Everton de Vina vs Curico Unido kicked off at 00:00 on Sunday 26 September 2021 at Estadio Sausalito.
What was the final score in Everton de Vina vs Curico Unido?
Everton de Vina 0 - 0 Curico Unido.
Where is Everton de Vina vs Curico Unido being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Sausalito.
What competition is Everton de Vina vs Curico Unido part of?
Everton de Vina vs Curico Unido is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Everton de Vina vs Curico Unido?
Our statistical model gives Everton de Vina a 38% chance of winning, Curico Unido a 26% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Everton de Vina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton de Vina vs Curico Unido?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Everton de Vina and Curico Unido will score (BTTS).
Will Everton de Vina vs Curico Unido have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and Curico Unido?
Record (1 meetings): Everton de Vina 0W | Draws 1 | Curico Unido 0W.
What form are Everton de Vina and Curico Unido in?
Everton de Vina (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Curico Unido (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Everton de Vina's attack at 0.84x the league average against Curico Unido's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.08 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Curico Unido's attack versus Everton de Vina's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton de Vina Win
38%
2.63
36%
2.78
26%
3.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.7%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.6%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Everton de Vina xG
Total xG
1.93
0.85
Curico Unido xG
2.63
38%
Home win
2.78
36%
Draw
3.84
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.49
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
43%
2.34
34%
2.94
Win to Nil
16%
6.15
9%
11.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.6 | 12.4 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.7 | 13.3 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 7.2 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton de Vina vs Curico Unido?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.3%.
How many goals are Everton de Vina and Curico Unido expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Everton de Vina and 0.85 for Curico Unido, a combined total of 1.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton de Vina vs Curico Unido?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Everton de Vina's recent record stands at 7W 6D 7L from 20 games, a 1.35 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Everton de Vina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Curico Unido, meanwhile, have gone 4W 7D 9L across 20 games — 0.95 PPG, with D-D-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for Curico Unido is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Everton de Vina by 0.40 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Curico Unido heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Everton de Vina have managed 4W 3D 3L from 10 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Curico Unido's away record stands at 1W 3D 6L across 10 trips, a 0.60 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Everton de Vina come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Everton de Vina are averaging 0.85 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Curico Unido are on 1.15 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Everton de Vina have seen both teams score in 30% of their recent games; Curico Unido in 60%.
Defensively: Everton de Vina have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton de Vina
Blended
Curico Unido
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Everton de Vina and Curico Unido in coming into this match?
Everton de Vina have gone 7W 6D 7L in their last 20 games (1.35 PPG), while Curico Unido have gone 4W 7D 9L in their last 20 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton de Vina at home or Curico Unido away?
Everton de Vina's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton de Vina at home: 1.50 PPG; Curico Unido away: 0.60 PPG.
Have Everton de Vina or Curico Unido been keeping clean sheets recently?
Everton de Vina have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Curico Unido in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 November 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Jul 2022, when Everton de Vina won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Everton de Vina's record when hosting Curico Unido specifically: 0W 3D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Everton de Vina
4
Draws
0
Curico Unido
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and Curico Unido?
From 6 meetings on record, Everton de Vina have won 2, Curico Unido have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Everton de Vina and Curico Unido last play each other?
They last met on 12 November 2023, when Everton de Vina 1-1 Curico Unido.
Who has won more matches between Everton de Vina and Curico Unido?
Everton de Vina have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Everton de Vina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Curico Unido are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Everton de Vina 30% BTTS, Curico Unido 40%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 30% for Everton de Vina and 20% for Curico Unido.
On the defensive side: Everton de Vina keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Everton de Vina have failed to score in 30% of games; Curico Unido in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton de Vina home games / Curico Unido away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Everton de Vina play Curico Unido?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of Everton de Vina's recent matches and 40% of Curico Unido's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Everton de Vina vs Curico Unido usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Everton de Vina's recent games and 20% of Curico Unido's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Everton de Vina and Curico Unido tend to score early?
Everton de Vina have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Curico Unido in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Everton de Vina's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Sausalito, Regular Season - 22, as Everton de Vina and Curico Unido drew 0-0 in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton de Vina 1.08 xG and Curico Unido 0.85 xG, a combined 1.93. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Everton de Vina fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Curico Unido landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton de Vina attack 0.84 / defence 0.97 against Curico Unido attack 0.74 / defence 1.14, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Everton de Vina 38% | Draw 36% | Curico Unido 26%, with Everton de Vina to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 30% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton de Vina 20%, Curico Unido 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Everton de Vina's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Curico Unido's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Everton de Vina arrived the stronger side — 1.35 PPG against 0.95. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Everton de Vina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Curico Unido (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.