Coquimbo Unido 0-1 Universidad de Chile – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Universidad de Chile at 45% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Coquimbo Unido vs Universidad de Chile encounter.

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Match Analysis

Coquimbo Unido host Universidad de Chile at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso in Primera División (matchday 23). Kick-off is Saturday 31 August 2024 at 21:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Coquimbo Unido stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Coquimbo Unido at home: 5W 4D 1L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Coquimbo Unido are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Universidad de Chile — last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

Universidad de Chile away from home: 7W 2D 1L from their last 10 away games — 2.30 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Universidad de Chile are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

H2H

The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Coquimbo Unido: 3 wins from 5 H2H matches against 0 for Universidad de Chile, with 2 draws.

Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.8 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 14 Apr 2024, ended Coquimbo Unido 1–1 Universidad de Chile — a draw.

The head-to-head data gives Coquimbo Unido an edge — 3 wins from 5 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.

Trading Patterns

Coquimbo Unido in-play and half-time data (last 52 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).

Universidad de Chile in-play and half-time data (last 52 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Coquimbo Unido 62% versus Universidad de Chile 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Coquimbo Unido 54% | Universidad de Chile 58%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Coquimbo Unido 1.19 xG and Universidad de Chile 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coquimbo Unido attack 0.943 / defence 0.886 | Universidad de Chile attack 1.439 / defence 0.840. League average goals — home 1.501 / away 1.199. Universidad de Chile have an above-average attack rating of 1.439, which lifts their away xG to 1.53. Data: built from Coquimbo Unido's last 52 games and Universidad de Chile's last 52.

Result probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 29% | Draw 26% | Universidad de Chile 45%. Fair-value odds: Coquimbo Unido 3.40 | Draw 3.90 | Universidad de Chile 2.23. Universidad de Chile hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

Coquimbo Unido have the better head-to-head record in our data (3 wins to 0), yet Universidad de Chile are the in-form side right now — head-to-head edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.

On the Poisson output, Universidad de Chile are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Universidad de Chile offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.72 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging only 1.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Coquimbo Unido 50% (last 10 home games) | Universidad de Chile 50% (last 10 away games).

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