Colo Colo 2-0 Everton de Vina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Colo Colo (56%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Colo Colo face Everton de Vina.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Monumental David Arellano plays host to Colo Colo versus Everton de Vina in Primera División, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Saturday 7 February 2026 at 23:30 UTC.
Form
Colo Colo (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Primera División fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Colo Colo's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Estadio Monumental David Arellano this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Everton de Vina's overall Primera División record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Everton de Vina have gone 3W 0D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in Colo Colo's favour (1.70 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Historically, Colo Colo have had the better of this match-up — 5 wins from 8 meetings, with Everton de Vina managing just 0 victories and 3 draws shared.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Aug 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The historical record gives Colo Colo a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 8 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading
Colo Colo half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Everton de Vina half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Colo Colo 47% versus Everton de Vina 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Colo Colo 52% | Everton de Vina 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Colo Colo 1.79 xG and Everton de Vina 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Colo Colo attack 1.178 / defence 1.081 | Everton de Vina attack 0.906 / defence 1.007. League average goals — home 1.508 / away 1.005. Data: 31 Colo Colo games / 31 Everton de Vina games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Colo Colo 56% | Draw 23% | Everton de Vina 21%. Fair-value odds: Colo Colo 1.79 | Draw 4.35 | Everton de Vina 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Colo Colo (56%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Colo Colo at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.77 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Colo Colo 70% | Everton de Vina 40% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Colo Colo vs Everton de Vina | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Estadio Monumental David Arellano • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Feb 2026, 23:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Colo Colo 56% | Draw 23% | Everton de Vina 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 52% | xG Colo Colo 1.79 / Everton de Vina 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Colo Colo attack 1.178 / def 1.081 | Everton de Vina attack 0.906 / def 1.007 | league avg home 1.508 / away 1.005 • Poisson stance: Colo Colo (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Colo Colo xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Everton de Vina xG
52%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Colo Colo vs Everton de Vina kick off?
Colo Colo vs Everton de Vina kicked off at 23:30 on Saturday 7 February 2026 at Estadio Monumental David Arellano.
What was the final score in Colo Colo vs Everton de Vina?
Colo Colo 2 - 0 Everton de Vina.
Where is Colo Colo vs Everton de Vina being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Monumental David Arellano.
What competition is Colo Colo vs Everton de Vina part of?
Colo Colo vs Everton de Vina is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Colo Colo vs Everton de Vina?
Our statistical model gives Colo Colo a 56% chance of winning, Everton de Vina a 21% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Colo Colo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Colo Colo vs Everton de Vina?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Colo Colo and Everton de Vina will score (BTTS).
Will Colo Colo vs Everton de Vina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Colo Colo and Everton de Vina?
Record (8 meetings): Colo Colo 5W | Draws 3 | Everton de Vina 0W.
What form are Colo Colo and Everton de Vina in?
Colo Colo (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. Everton de Vina (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Colo Colo's attacking strength (1.18x league average) is weighed against Everton de Vina's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.79. Flip it around — Everton de Vina's attack (0.91x) against Colo Colo's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Colo Colo Win
56%
1.78
23%
4.32
21%
4.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Colo Colo xG
Total xG
2.77
0.98
Everton de Vina xG
1.78
56%
Home win
4.32
23%
Draw
4.86
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
17%
5.99
Win to Nil
21%
4.76
3%
29.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.2 | 11.0 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.8 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Colo Colo vs Everton de Vina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Colo Colo and Everton de Vina expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Colo Colo and 0.98 for Everton de Vina, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Colo Colo vs Everton de Vina?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Colo Colo's recent record stands at 33W 12D 15L from 60 games, a 1.85 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-L in the last five.
Everton de Vina, meanwhile, have gone 18W 17D 25L across 60 games — 1.18 PPG, with L-W-L-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Colo Colo by 0.67 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Everton de Vina heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Colo Colo have managed 20W 4D 6L from 30 games — 2.13 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Everton de Vina's away record stands at 9W 5D 16L across 30 trips, a 1.07 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Colo Colo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Colo Colo are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Everton de Vina are on 1.23 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Defensively: Colo Colo have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Colo Colo
Current Season
Everton de Vina
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Colo Colo and Everton de Vina in coming into this match?
Colo Colo have gone 33W 12D 15L in their last 60 games (1.85 PPG), while Everton de Vina have gone 18W 17D 25L in their last 60 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Colo Colo at home or Everton de Vina away?
Colo Colo's home record (2.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Colo Colo at home: 2.13 PPG; Everton de Vina away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Colo Colo or Everton de Vina been keeping clean sheets recently?
Colo Colo have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Everton de Vina in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to February 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Colo Colo go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Colo Colo won 4-1 on 30 Mar 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Colo Colo have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Everton de Vina — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Colo Colo
3
Draws
0
Everton de Vina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Colo Colo and Everton de Vina?
From 10 meetings on record, Colo Colo have won 7, Everton de Vina have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Colo Colo and Everton de Vina last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when Everton de Vina 3-4 Colo Colo.
Who has won more matches between Colo Colo and Everton de Vina?
Colo Colo have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Colo Colo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Everton de Vina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Colo Colo 50%, Everton de Vina 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Colo Colo) and 60% (Everton de Vina). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Colo Colo keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Everton de Vina in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Colo Colo home games / Everton de Vina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Colo Colo play Everton de Vina?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Colo Colo's games and 63% of Everton de Vina's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Colo Colo vs Everton de Vina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Colo Colo's matches and 60% of Everton de Vina's.
Do Colo Colo and Everton de Vina tend to score early?
Colo Colo have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Everton de Vina in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Colo Colo cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Everton de Vina.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Colo Colo beat Everton de Vina 2-0 at Estadio Monumental David Arellano, Regular Season - 2, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Colo Colo 1.79 xG and Everton de Vina 0.98 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Everton de Vina landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Colo Colo attack 1.18 / defence 1.08 against Everton de Vina attack 0.91 / defence 1.01, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Colo Colo 56% | Draw 23% | Everton de Vina 21%, with Colo Colo to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Colo Colo 52%, Everton de Vina 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Colo Colo's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Everton de Vina's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Colo Colo arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.18. That form edge translated into the three points. Colo Colo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.90 average — tighter than their form line. Everton de Vina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.