Cobresal 2-5 Deportes Limache – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Cobresal at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cobresal vs Deportes Limache fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primera División clash, Regular Season - 7 as Cobresal welcome Deportes Limache to El Cobre. Kick-off is set for Sunday 15 March 2026 at 21:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Cobresal — All Games: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Primera División outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at El Cobre, Cobresal have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Deportes Limache stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Primera División matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Deportes Limache's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Cobresal) versus 1.40 (Deportes Limache). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Cobresal register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Deportes Limache in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Cobresal, 1 for Deportes Limache and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Oct 2025, ended 0–2 with Deportes Limache winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Cobresal in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Deportes Limache in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 30% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cobresal 57% versus Deportes Limache 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cobresal 57% | Deportes Limache 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cobresal 1.58 xG and Deportes Limache 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cobresal attack 1.024 / defence 0.977 | Deportes Limache attack 1.004 / defence 1.093. League average goals — home 1.411 / away 1.022. Data: 36 Cobresal games / 36 Deportes Limache games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cobresal 51% | Draw 25% | Deportes Limache 24%. Fair-value odds: Cobresal 1.96 | Draw 4.00 | Deportes Limache 4.17. Cobresal hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cobresal as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cobresal offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Cobresal 60% | Deportes Limache 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cobresal vs Deportes Limache | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: El Cobre • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Mar 2026, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cobresal 51% | Draw 25% | Deportes Limache 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 50% | xG Cobresal 1.58 / Deportes Limache 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Cobresal attack 1.024 / def 0.977 | Deportes Limache attack 1.004 / def 1.093 | league avg home 1.411 / away 1.022 • Poisson stance: Cobresal (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Cobresal xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Deportes Limache xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cobresal vs Deportes Limache kick off?
Cobresal vs Deportes Limache kicked off at 21:00 on Sunday 15 March 2026 at El Cobre.
What was the final score in Cobresal vs Deportes Limache?
Cobresal 2 - 5 Deportes Limache.
Where is Cobresal vs Deportes Limache being played?
The match is being played at El Cobre.
What competition is Cobresal vs Deportes Limache part of?
Cobresal vs Deportes Limache is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Cobresal vs Deportes Limache?
Our statistical model gives Cobresal a 51% chance of winning, Deportes Limache a 24% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Cobresal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cobresal vs Deportes Limache?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Cobresal and Deportes Limache will score (BTTS).
Will Cobresal vs Deportes Limache have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cobresal and Deportes Limache?
Record (2 meetings): Cobresal 1W | Draws 0 | Deportes Limache 1W.
What form are Cobresal and Deportes Limache in?
Cobresal (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Deportes Limache (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Cobresal's attack at 1.02x the league average against Deportes Limache's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.58 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Deportes Limache's attack versus Cobresal's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.4%), 2-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cobresal Win
51%
1.97
25%
3.97
24%
4.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Cobresal xG
Total xG
2.58
1.00
Deportes Limache xG
1.97
51%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
4.15
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
21%
4.85
Win to Nil
19%
5.38
5%
20.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 7.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 12.0 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.5 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cobresal vs Deportes Limache?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Cobresal and Deportes Limache expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Cobresal and 1.00 for Deportes Limache, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Cobresal vs Deportes Limache?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cobresal come into this having played 30 games, going 14W 5D 11L for 1.57 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-L.
On the other side, Deportes Limache sit at 1.03 PPG from 30 outings (8W 7D 15L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-W across their last five.
Cobresal carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.54 PPG clear of Deportes Limache — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Cobresal's home form reads 9W 3D 3L across 15 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.57 PPG overall — Cobresal are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Deportes Limache have taken 0.53 points per game from 15 outings (1W 5D 9L). That's a step down from their 1.03 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Deportes Limache's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cobresal come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cobresal are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Deportes Limache are on 1.20 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cobresal
Current Season
Deportes Limache
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cobresal and Deportes Limache in coming into this match?
Cobresal have gone 14W 5D 11L in their last 30 games (1.57 PPG), while Deportes Limache have gone 8W 7D 15L in their last 30 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cobresal at home or Deportes Limache away?
Cobresal's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cobresal at home: 2.00 PPG; Deportes Limache away: 0.53 PPG.
Have Cobresal or Deportes Limache been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cobresal have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Deportes Limache in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Deportes Limache have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Mar 2026, when Deportes Limache won 2-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cobresal's record when hosting Deportes Limache specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Cobresal
0
Draws
2
Deportes Limache
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cobresal and Deportes Limache?
From 3 meetings on record, Cobresal have won 1, Deportes Limache have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cobresal and Deportes Limache last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Cobresal 2-5 Deportes Limache.
Who has won more matches between Cobresal and Deportes Limache?
Deportes Limache have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cobresal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Deportes Limache are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 47% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Cobresal at 67%, Deportes Limache at 80%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Cobresal and 73% for Deportes Limache. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cobresal home games / Deportes Limache away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cobresal play Deportes Limache?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Cobresal's games and 80% of Deportes Limache's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cobresal vs Deportes Limache usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Cobresal's matches and 73% of Deportes Limache's.
Do Cobresal and Deportes Limache tend to score early?
Cobresal have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Deportes Limache in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Deportes Limache run riot with a 2-5 hammering of Cobresal.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Deportes Limache beat Cobresal 2-5 at El Cobre, Regular Season - 7, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cobresal 1.58 xG and Deportes Limache 1.00 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 2-5 for 7 actual goals. Deportes Limache outscored their 1.00 projection by 4.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cobresal attack 1.02 / defence 0.98 against Deportes Limache attack 1.00 / defence 1.09, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cobresal 51% | Draw 25% | Deportes Limache 24%, with Cobresal to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Deportes Limache win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cobresal 57%, Deportes Limache 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cobresal's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Deportes Limache's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Cobresal arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 1.03. Form was overturned, with Deportes Limache winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Cobresal (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Deportes Limache (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.