Antofagasta 0-0 Union La Calera – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Union La Calera at 36%, yet in-form Antofagasta provide a compelling counter-argument — this Antofagasta vs Union La Calera fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primera División clash, Regular Season - 7 as Antofagasta welcome Union La Calera to Estadio Regional Calvo y Bascuñán. Kick-off is set for Monday 21 March 2022 at 21:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Antofagasta — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Primera División outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: L D D D W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
In front of their own supporters this season, Antofagasta have posted 5W 2D 3L at Estadio Regional Calvo y Bascuñán — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Union La Calera stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Primera División matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Union La Calera have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.00 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Antofagasta carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Antofagasta register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Union La Calera in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Antofagasta, 2 for Union La Calera and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Sep 2021, ended 1–3 with Union La Calera winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Antofagasta in-play tendencies (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Union La Calera in-play tendencies (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antofagasta 56% versus Union La Calera 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antofagasta 41% | Union La Calera 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antofagasta 0.86 xG and Union La Calera 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antofagasta attack 0.812 / defence 0.931 | Union La Calera attack 0.848 / defence 0.749. League average goals — home 1.417 / away 1.209. Union La Calera's defence strength of 0.749 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 38 Antofagasta games / 38 Union La Calera games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Antofagasta 31% | Draw 34% | Union La Calera 36%. Fair-value odds: Antofagasta 3.23 | Draw 2.94 | Union La Calera 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.82. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.82 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Union La Calera at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Antofagasta (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Union La Calera offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.82 combined xG gives a 27% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 36% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Antofagasta 60% | Union La Calera 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antofagasta vs Union La Calera | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Estadio Regional Calvo y Bascuñán • Kick-off: Monday 21 Mar 2022, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antofagasta 31% | Draw 34% | Union La Calera 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 36% | xG Antofagasta 0.86 / Union La Calera 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Antofagasta attack 0.812 / def 0.931 | Union La Calera attack 0.848 / def 0.749 | league avg home 1.417 / away 1.209 • Poisson stance: Union La Calera (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.86
Antofagasta xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Union La Calera xG
36%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antofagasta vs Union La Calera kick off?
Antofagasta vs Union La Calera kicked off at 21:00 on Monday 21 March 2022 at Estadio Regional Calvo y Bascuñán.
What was the final score in Antofagasta vs Union La Calera?
Antofagasta 0 - 0 Union La Calera.
Where is Antofagasta vs Union La Calera being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Regional Calvo y Bascuñán.
What competition is Antofagasta vs Union La Calera part of?
Antofagasta vs Union La Calera is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Antofagasta vs Union La Calera?
Our statistical model gives Antofagasta a 31% chance of winning, Union La Calera a 36% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Union La Calera the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antofagasta vs Union La Calera?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Antofagasta and Union La Calera will score (BTTS).
Will Antofagasta vs Union La Calera have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antofagasta and Union La Calera?
Record (2 meetings): Antofagasta 0W | Draws 0 | Union La Calera 2W.
What form are Antofagasta and Union La Calera in?
Antofagasta (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-D-D-D-W. Union La Calera (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Antofagasta's attack rating (0.81) and Union La Calera's defence rating (0.75), the model arrives at 0.86 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Union La Calera's attack versus Antofagasta's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union La Calera Win
31%
3.27
34%
2.95
36%
2.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.5%
Away win
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.86
Antofagasta xG
Total xG
1.82
0.95
Union La Calera xG
3.27
31%
Home win
2.95
34%
Draw
2.81
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.77
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
38%
2.60
42%
2.37
Win to Nil
12%
8.51
15%
6.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.3 | 15.5 | 7.4 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.0 | 13.4 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antofagasta vs Union La Calera?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.0%.
How many goals are Antofagasta and Union La Calera expected to score?
The model projects 0.86 expected goals for Antofagasta and 0.95 for Union La Calera, a combined total of 1.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Antofagasta vs Union La Calera?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Antofagasta come into this having played 32 games, going 12W 11D 9L for 1.47 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-D-W.
On the other side, Union La Calera sit at 1.59 PPG from 32 outings (15W 6D 11L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Antofagasta on 1.47 PPG, Union La Calera on 1.59. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Antofagasta's home form reads 9W 2D 5L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.81 PPG return.
Away from home, Union La Calera have taken 1.75 points per game from 16 outings (8W 4D 4L).
Goals in Recent Form
Antofagasta are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Union La Calera are on 1.28 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 32 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antofagasta
Current Season
Union La Calera
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Antofagasta and Union La Calera in coming into this match?
Antofagasta have gone 12W 11D 9L in their last 32 games (1.47 PPG), while Union La Calera have gone 15W 6D 11L in their last 32 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antofagasta at home or Union La Calera away?
Antofagasta's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antofagasta at home: 1.81 PPG; Union La Calera away: 1.75 PPG.
Have Antofagasta or Union La Calera been keeping clean sheets recently?
Antofagasta have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Union La Calera in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 August 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Antofagasta's record when hosting Union La Calera specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Antofagasta
2
Draws
2
Union La Calera
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antofagasta and Union La Calera?
From 4 meetings on record, Antofagasta have won 0, Union La Calera have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Antofagasta and Union La Calera last play each other?
They last met on 14 August 2022, when Union La Calera 1-1 Antofagasta.
Who has won more matches between Antofagasta and Union La Calera?
Union La Calera have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Antofagasta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Union La Calera are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antofagasta 62%, Union La Calera 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Antofagasta) and 62% (Union La Calera). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 12% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Antofagasta keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antofagasta home games / Union La Calera away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Antofagasta play Union La Calera?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Antofagasta's games and 62% of Union La Calera's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Antofagasta vs Union La Calera usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Antofagasta's matches and 62% of Union La Calera's.
Do Antofagasta and Union La Calera tend to score early?
Antofagasta have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Union La Calera in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Antofagasta's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Regional Calvo y Bascuñán, Regular Season - 7, as Antofagasta and Union La Calera drew 0-0 in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antofagasta 0.86 xG and Union La Calera 0.95 xG, a combined 1.82. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Antofagasta fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Union La Calera landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antofagasta attack 0.81 / defence 0.93 against Union La Calera attack 0.85 / defence 0.75, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antofagasta 31% | Draw 34% | Union La Calera 36%, with Union La Calera to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 55% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antofagasta 41%, Union La Calera 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antofagasta's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Union La Calera's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Antofagasta 1.47 PPG, Union La Calera 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Antofagasta (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line. Union La Calera (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.