York United 3-0 Vancouver FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vancouver FC at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as York United face Vancouver FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
York Lions Stadium plays host to York United versus Vancouver FC in Canadian Premier League (matchday 2). Kick-off: Saturday 27 April 2024 at 01:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
York United have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
York United's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Vancouver FC (all games): 5W 0D 5L across their last 10 — 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Vancouver FC's form when playing away from home: 2W 0D 8L across their last 10 road games (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
York United — key trading statistics (last 28 games, 13 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Vancouver FC — key trading statistics (last 28 games, 13 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — York United 61% versus Vancouver FC 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (York United 64% | Vancouver FC 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects York United 1.20 xG and Vancouver FC 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: York United attack 0.777 / defence 1.275 | Vancouver FC attack 0.978 / defence 1.004. League average goals — home 1.540 / away 1.084. York United's attack rating of 0.777 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.20. York United's defence rating of 1.275 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Vancouver FC's projected output up. Data: built from York United's last 30 games and Vancouver FC's last 30. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: York United 33% | Draw 27% | Vancouver FC 40%. Fair-value odds: York United 3.04 | Draw 3.69 | Vancouver FC 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Vancouver FC as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Vancouver FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.55 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 53% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: York United 50% (last 10 home games) | Vancouver FC 50% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (York United 30 games, Vancouver FC 30) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: York United vs Vancouver FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, matchday 2 | Venue: York Lions Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 27 April 2024 at 01:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: York United 33% | Draw 27% | Vancouver FC 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG York United 1.20 / Vancouver FC 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: York United attack 0.777 / def 1.275 | Vancouver FC attack 0.978 / def 1.004 | league avg home 1.540 / away 1.084 • Poisson stance: Vancouver FC (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
York United xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Vancouver FC xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ York United vs Vancouver FC FAQs
What time does York United vs Vancouver FC kick off?
York United vs Vancouver FC kicked off at 01:00 UK time on Saturday 27 April 2024 at York Lions Stadium.
What was the final score in York United vs Vancouver FC?
York United 3 - 0 Vancouver FC.
Where is York United vs Vancouver FC being played?
The match is being played at York Lions Stadium.
What competition is York United vs Vancouver FC part of?
York United vs Vancouver FC is a Canadian Premier League fixture (matchday 2) (Canada).
Who is favourite to win York United vs Vancouver FC?
Our statistical model gives York United a 33% chance of winning, Vancouver FC a 40% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Vancouver FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in York United vs Vancouver FC?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both York United and Vancouver FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will York United vs Vancouver FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
York United's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against Vancouver FC's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.20. Flip it around — Vancouver FC's attack (0.98x) against York United's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from York United's last 30 games and Vancouver FC's last 30, a sample that still includes some older results.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.4%), 0-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vancouver FC Win
33%
3.04
27%
3.69
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
York United xG
Total xG
2.55
1.35
Vancouver FC xG
3.04
33%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
26%
3.87
30%
3.33
Win to Nil
9%
11.76
12%
8.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 10.5 | 7.1 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.6 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.6 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ York United vs Vancouver FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for York United vs Vancouver FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are York United and Vancouver FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for York United and 1.35 for Vancouver FC, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for York United vs Vancouver FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 28 outings, York United have picked up 1.36 PPG on a 11W 5D 12L record — L-L-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Vancouver FC's form line: 8W 5D 15L from 28 games, 1.04 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.36 PPG for York United against 1.04 for Vancouver FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, York United have posted 1.08 PPG from their last 13 home games (4W 2D 7L).
On the road, Vancouver FC have gone 3W 2D 8L from their last 13 away games — 0.85 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
York United are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Vancouver FC are on 1.00 scored and 1.79 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: York United have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 28 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
York United
Current Season
Vancouver FC
Current Season
York United (Home) vs Vancouver FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
York United
Current Season
Vancouver FC
Current Season
❓ York United vs Vancouver FC Form FAQs
What form are York United and Vancouver FC in coming into this match?
York United have gone 11W 5D 12L in their last 28 games (1.36 PPG), while Vancouver FC have gone 8W 5D 15L in their last 28 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — York United at home or Vancouver FC away?
York United's home record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — York United at home: 1.08 PPG; Vancouver FC away: 0.85 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between York United and Vancouver FC, the earliest from July 2024. All of them came in Canadian Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 24 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: York United won York United 4-0 Vancouver FC on 19 Jul 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, York United have gone 4W 0D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Vancouver FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
York United
2
Draws
2
Vancouver FC
Recent Meetings
❓ York United vs Vancouver FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between York United and Vancouver FC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, York United have won 6, Vancouver FC have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did York United and Vancouver FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 September 2026: Vancouver FC 3-3 York United.
Who has won more matches between York United and Vancouver FC?
York United have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
York United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Vancouver FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — York United 46%, Vancouver FC 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (York United) and 54% (Vancouver FC).
On the defensive side: York United have failed to score in 38% of games; Vancouver FC in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = York United home games / Vancouver FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ York United vs Vancouver FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in York United and Vancouver FC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of York United's recent matches and 54% of Vancouver FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are York United and Vancouver FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of York United's recent games and 54% of Vancouver FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do York United and Vancouver FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 85% of York United's recent matches and 69% of Vancouver FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant York United run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Vancouver FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
York United beat Vancouver FC 3-0 at York Lions Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting York United 1.20 xG and Vancouver FC 1.35 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. York United beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Vancouver FC landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of York United attack 0.78 / defence 1.27 against Vancouver FC attack 0.98 / defence 1.00, drawn from 30/30 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it York United 33% | Draw 27% | Vancouver FC 40%, with Vancouver FC to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual York United win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (York United 64%, Vancouver FC 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
York United's trading profile (28 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Vancouver FC's trading profile (28 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — York United 1.36 PPG, Vancouver FC 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the York United win broke the near-deadlock. York United (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.85 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line. Vancouver FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.54 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.