York United 1-3 Valour – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates York United at 40% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this York United vs Valour encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Valour make the trip to York Lions Stadium to face York United in Canadian Premier League (matchday 10). The match kicks off on Saturday 9 September 2023 at 01:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
York United have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, York United have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Valour's record over their last 10 games: 1W 2D 7L (0.50 PPG). Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Valour away from home: 0W 4D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in York United's favour (1.50 vs 0.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, York United edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 24 Jul 2023, ended York United 2–1 Valour — a York United win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
York United half-time and goal-timing data (last 50 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Valour half-time and goal-timing data (last 50 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — York United 50% versus Valour 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (York United 54% | Valour 36%). Note also that Valour surrender HT leads in 50% of cases while York United recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 31% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects York United 1.16 xG and Valour 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: York United attack 0.817 / defence 1.146 | Valour attack 0.624 / defence 1.087. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.312. Valour's attack rating of 0.624 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.94. Data: built from York United's last 51 games and Valour's last 50.
Result probabilities: York United 40% | Draw 31% | Valour 29%. Fair-value odds: York United 2.48 | Draw 3.26 | Valour 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates York United as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on York United if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.10 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 65% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (York United's last 10 home games and Valour's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: York United 40% (last 10 home games) | Valour 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: York United vs Valour | Competition: Canadian Premier League, matchday 10 | Venue: York Lions Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 9 September 2023 at 01:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: York United 40% | Draw 31% | Valour 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% (Under 65%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG York United 1.16 / Valour 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: York United attack 0.817 / def 1.146 | Valour attack 0.624 / def 1.087 | league avg home 1.305 / away 1.312 • Poisson stance: York United (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
York United xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Valour xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ York United vs Valour FAQs
What time does York United vs Valour kick off?
York United vs Valour kicked off at 01:00 UK time on Saturday 9 September 2023 at York Lions Stadium.
What was the final score in York United vs Valour?
York United 1 - 3 Valour.
Where is York United vs Valour being played?
The match is being played at York Lions Stadium.
What competition is York United vs Valour part of?
York United vs Valour is a Canadian Premier League fixture (matchday 10) (Canada).
Who is favourite to win York United vs Valour?
Our statistical model gives York United a 40% chance of winning, Valour a 29% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making York United the favourite.
Will both teams score in York United vs Valour?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both York United and Valour will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will York United vs Valour have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (65%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from York United's attack rating (0.82) and Valour's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.16 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Valour's attack (0.62x) against York United's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from York United's last 51 games and Valour's last 50 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.0%), 1-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
York United Win
40%
2.48
31%
3.26
29%
3.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
York United xG
Total xG
2.10
0.94
Valour xG
2.48
40%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
3.45
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
31%
3.19
Win to Nil
16%
6.34
9%
10.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 11.5 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 13.4 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 7.7 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ York United vs Valour Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for York United vs Valour?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are York United and Valour expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for York United and 0.94 for Valour, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for York United vs Valour?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
York United come into this having played 50 games, going 18W 12D 20L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-W-W.
On the other side, Valour sit at 1.14 PPG from 50 outings (14W 15D 21L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.32 PPG for York United against 1.14 for Valour. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
York United's home form reads 8W 5D 10L across their last 23 home games, a 1.26 PPG return.
Away from home, Valour have taken 0.78 points per game from their last 23 away games (4W 6D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, York United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
York United are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Valour are on 1.08 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 50 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
York United
Blended
Valour
Blended
York United (Home) vs Valour (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
York United
Blended
Valour
Blended
❓ York United vs Valour Form FAQs
What form are York United and Valour in coming into this match?
York United have gone 18W 12D 20L in their last 50 games (1.32 PPG), while Valour have gone 14W 15D 21L in their last 50 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — York United at home or Valour away?
York United's home record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — York United at home: 1.26 PPG; Valour away: 0.78 PPG.
Have York United or Valour been keeping clean sheets recently?
York United have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Valour in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to July 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Canadian Premier League. The most recent in our data was on 28 September 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, York United have gone 3W 1D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Valour — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
York United
2
Draws
3
Valour
Recent Meetings
❓ York United vs Valour H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between York United and Valour?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, York United have won 5, Valour have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did York United and Valour last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 September 2025: York United 1-0 Valour.
Who has won more matches between York United and Valour?
York United have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
York United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Valour are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — York United 44%, Valour 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (York United) and 48% (Valour).
On the defensive side: York United have failed to score in 44% of games; Valour in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = York United home games / Valour away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ York United vs Valour Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in York United and Valour matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of York United's recent matches and 56% of Valour's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are York United and Valour matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of York United's recent games and 48% of Valour's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do York United and Valour matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 65% of York United's recent matches and 61% of Valour's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Valour cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over York United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valour beat York United 1-3 at York Lions Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting York United 1.16 xG and Valour 0.94 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Valour outscored their 0.94 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of York United attack 0.82 / defence 1.15 against Valour attack 0.62 / defence 1.09, drawn from 51/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it York United 40% | Draw 31% | Valour 29%, with York United to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Valour win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (York United 54%, Valour 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
York United's trading profile (50 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Valour's trading profile (50 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — York United 1.32 PPG, Valour 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Valour win broke the near-deadlock. York United (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Valour (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.