York United vs Pacific FC – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates York United at 50% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this York United vs Pacific FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Canadian Premier League encounter, Group Stage sees Pacific FC travel to York Lions Stadium to take on York United. The game is scheduled for Sunday 27 September 2026, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Canadian Premier League games this season, York United have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: D W D L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for York United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, York United have posted 4W 3D 3L at York Lions Stadium — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — York United are significantly better at York Lions Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Pacific FC — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Canadian Premier League fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Pacific FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Pacific FC have gone 0W 5D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: York United 0.70 PPG, Pacific FC 0.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
York United hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 5 wins from 10 previous encounters compared to 2 for Pacific FC, with 3 draws in between.
The 10 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.9 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 Aug 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both York United and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 10 meetings, combined with an average of 2.9 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
York United trading profile (47 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Pacific FC trading profile (47 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — York United 70% and Pacific FC 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (York United 64% | Pacific FC 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects York United 1.86 xG and Pacific FC 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: York United attack 1.010 / defence 0.997 | Pacific FC attack 0.986 / defence 1.019. League average goals — home 1.811 / away 1.267. Data: 28 York United games / 28 Pacific FC games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: York United 50% | Draw 26% | Pacific FC 24%. Fair-value odds: York United 2.00 | Draw 3.85 | Pacific FC 4.17. York United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.86 / 1.25) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, York United are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on York United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.11 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: York United 80% | Pacific FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (28 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: York United vs Pacific FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Group Stage | Venue: York Lions Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Sep 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: York United 50% | Draw 26% | Pacific FC 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG York United 1.86 / Pacific FC 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: York United attack 1.010 / def 0.997 | Pacific FC attack 0.986 / def 1.019 | league avg home 1.811 / away 1.267 • Poisson stance: York United (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
York United xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Pacific FC xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does York United vs Pacific FC kick off?
York United vs Pacific FC is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Sunday 27 September 2026 at York Lions Stadium.
Where is York United vs Pacific FC being played?
The match is being played at York Lions Stadium.
What competition is York United vs Pacific FC part of?
York United vs Pacific FC is a Group Stage fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win York United vs Pacific FC?
Our statistical model gives York United a 50% chance of winning, Pacific FC a 24% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making York United the favourite.
Will both teams score in York United vs Pacific FC?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both York United and Pacific FC will score (BTTS).
Will York United vs Pacific FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between York United and Pacific FC?
Record (10 meetings): York United 5W | Draws 3 | Pacific FC 2W.
What form are York United and Pacific FC in?
York United (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.60 | L5 D-W-D-L-D. Pacific FC (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates York United's attack at 1.01x the league average against Pacific FC's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.86 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Pacific FC's attack versus York United's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
York United Win
50%
1.99
26%
3.85
24%
4.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
York United xG
Total xG
3.11
1.25
Pacific FC xG
1.99
50%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
4.19
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.62
Clean Sheet
29%
3.48
16%
6.45
Win to Nil
14%
6.92
4%
27.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 5.6 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 10.4 | 6.5 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 6.0 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for York United vs Pacific FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are York United and Pacific FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for York United and 1.25 for Pacific FC, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for York United vs Pacific FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
York United's recent record stands at 13W 16D 18L from 47 games, a 1.17 PPG return, with D-W-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for York United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pacific FC, meanwhile, have gone 6W 14D 27L across 47 games — 0.68 PPG, with D-D-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Pacific FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours York United by 0.49 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Pacific FC heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, York United have managed 10W 6D 6L from 22 games — 1.64 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.17 PPG overall — York United are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Pacific FC's away record stands at 1W 8D 13L across 22 trips, a 0.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, York United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
York United are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Pacific FC are on 1.11 scored and 2.09 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: York United have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; Pacific FC in 62%.
Last 47 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
York United
Blended
Pacific FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are York United and Pacific FC in coming into this match?
York United have gone 13W 16D 18L in their last 47 games (1.17 PPG), while Pacific FC have gone 6W 14D 27L in their last 47 (0.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — York United at home or Pacific FC away?
York United's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — York United at home: 1.64 PPG; Pacific FC away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Aug 2025, when York United won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
York United's record when hosting Pacific FC specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
York United
3
Draws
2
Pacific FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between York United and Pacific FC?
From 10 meetings on record, York United have won 5, Pacific FC have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did York United and Pacific FC last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Pacific FC 1-1 York United.
Who has won more matches between York United and Pacific FC?
York United have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
York United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Pacific FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — York United 73%, Pacific FC 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for York United and 54% for Pacific FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 59% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Pacific FC in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = York United home games / Pacific FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when York United play Pacific FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of York United's games and 54% of Pacific FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is York United vs Pacific FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of York United's matches and 54% of Pacific FC's.
Do York United and Pacific FC tend to score early?
York United have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, Pacific FC in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.