York United 2-0 Pacific FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates York United at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this York United vs Pacific FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Canadian Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees Pacific FC travel to York Lions Stadium to take on York United. The game is scheduled for Thursday 20 June 2024, 00:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Canadian Premier League games this season, York United have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, York United have posted 3W 2D 5L at York Lions Stadium — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Pacific FC — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Canadian Premier League fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Pacific FC have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: York United 1.30 PPG, Pacific FC 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
York United trading profile (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Pacific FC trading profile (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — York United 49% versus Pacific FC 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (York United 53% | Pacific FC 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects York United 1.44 xG and Pacific FC 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: York United attack 1.101 / defence 1.177 | Pacific FC attack 1.020 / defence 0.893. League average goals — home 1.467 / away 1.071. Data: 38 York United games / 38 Pacific FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: York United 37% | Draw 33% | Pacific FC 30%. Fair-value odds: York United 2.70 | Draw 3.03 | Pacific FC 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, York United are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on York United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.73 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: York United 50% | Pacific FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: York United vs Pacific FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: York Lions Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 20 Jun 2024, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: York United 37% | Draw 33% | Pacific FC 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 59% | xG York United 1.44 / Pacific FC 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: York United attack 1.101 / def 1.177 | Pacific FC attack 1.020 / def 0.893 | league avg home 1.467 / away 1.071 • Poisson stance: York United (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
York United xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Pacific FC xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does York United vs Pacific FC kick off?
York United vs Pacific FC kicked off at 00:00 on Thursday 20 June 2024 at York Lions Stadium.
What was the final score in York United vs Pacific FC?
York United 2 - 0 Pacific FC.
Where is York United vs Pacific FC being played?
The match is being played at York Lions Stadium.
What competition is York United vs Pacific FC part of?
York United vs Pacific FC is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win York United vs Pacific FC?
Our statistical model gives York United a 37% chance of winning, Pacific FC a 30% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making York United the favourite.
Will both teams score in York United vs Pacific FC?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both York United and Pacific FC will score (BTTS).
Will York United vs Pacific FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between York United and Pacific FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are York United and Pacific FC in?
York United (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Pacific FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates York United's attack at 1.10x the league average against Pacific FC's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.44 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Pacific FC's attack versus York United's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 0-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
York United Win
37%
2.69
33%
3.04
30%
3.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
York United xG
Total xG
2.73
1.29
Pacific FC xG
2.69
37%
Home win
3.04
33%
Draw
3.33
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
28%
3.62
24%
4.23
Win to Nil
10%
9.74
7%
14.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 8.4 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.1 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.7 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for York United vs Pacific FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are York United and Pacific FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for York United and 1.29 for Pacific FC, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for York United vs Pacific FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
York United's recent record stands at 20W 12D 25L from 57 games, a 1.26 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-L in the last five.
Pacific FC, meanwhile, have gone 23W 14D 20L across 57 games — 1.46 PPG, with L-L-W-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: York United on 1.26 PPG, Pacific FC on 1.46. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, York United have managed 9W 5D 14L from 28 games — 1.14 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pacific FC's away record stands at 12W 5D 11L across 28 trips, a 1.46 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
York United are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Pacific FC are on 1.32 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 57 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
York United
Current Season
Pacific FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are York United and Pacific FC in coming into this match?
York United have gone 20W 12D 25L in their last 57 games (1.26 PPG), while Pacific FC have gone 23W 14D 20L in their last 57 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — York United at home or Pacific FC away?
Pacific FC's away record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — York United at home: 1.14 PPG; Pacific FC away: 1.46 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Aug 2025, when York United won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
York United's record when hosting Pacific FC specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
York United
3
Draws
2
Pacific FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between York United and Pacific FC?
From 10 meetings on record, York United have won 5, Pacific FC have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did York United and Pacific FC last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Pacific FC 1-1 York United.
Who has won more matches between York United and Pacific FC?
York United have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
York United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Pacific FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — York United 43%, Pacific FC 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (York United) and 54% (Pacific FC).
On the defensive side: York United have failed to score in 43% of games; Pacific FC in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = York United home games / Pacific FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when York United play Pacific FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of York United's recent matches and 54% of Pacific FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is York United vs Pacific FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of York United's recent games and 54% of Pacific FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do York United and Pacific FC tend to score early?
York United have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Pacific FC in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
York United cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Pacific FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
York United beat Pacific FC 2-0 at York Lions Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting York United 1.44 xG and Pacific FC 1.29 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Pacific FC landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of York United attack 1.10 / defence 1.18 against Pacific FC attack 1.02 / defence 0.89, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it York United 37% | Draw 33% | Pacific FC 30%, with York United to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (York United 53%, Pacific FC 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
York United's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.
Pacific FC's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — York United 1.26 PPG, Pacific FC 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the York United win broke the near-deadlock. York United (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.54 average — tighter than their form line. Pacific FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.