Vancouver FC 0-0 Cavalry FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cavalry FC at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Vancouver FC vs Cavalry FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cavalry FC make the trip to Willoughby Community Park Stadium to face Vancouver FC in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Monday 14 July 2025 at 02:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Vancouver FC have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Vancouver FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vancouver FC at Willoughby Community Park Stadium this season: 0W 3D 7L from 10 home games — 0.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Cavalry FC (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: D W D W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Cavalry FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cavalry FC away from home this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Cavalry FC are the stronger side — 1.40 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 0.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Vancouver FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Cavalry FC in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Vancouver FC 0W, Cavalry FC 1W, 3D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.8 per game from 4 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Apr 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Vancouver FC — key trading statistics (41 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Cavalry FC — key trading statistics (41 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vancouver FC 56% versus Cavalry FC 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vancouver FC 51% | Cavalry FC 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vancouver FC 0.91 xG and Cavalry FC 1.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vancouver FC attack 0.768 / defence 1.229 | Cavalry FC attack 1.096 / defence 0.770. League average goals — home 1.539 / away 1.371. Vancouver FC's attack strength of 0.768 is below the league average — the 0.91 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Cavalry FC's defence strength of 0.770 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 41 Vancouver FC games / 40 Cavalry FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vancouver FC 17% | Draw 25% | Cavalry FC 58%. Fair-value odds: Vancouver FC 5.88 | Draw 4.00 | Cavalry FC 1.72. The model has a clear lean to Cavalry FC (58%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Cavalry FC as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.76 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 0.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Vancouver FC 60% | Cavalry FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vancouver FC vs Cavalry FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Willoughby Community Park Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 14 Jul 2025, 02:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vancouver FC 17% | Draw 25% | Cavalry FC 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 52% | xG Vancouver FC 0.91 / Cavalry FC 1.85 • Poisson strength factors: Vancouver FC attack 0.768 / def 1.229 | Cavalry FC attack 1.096 / def 0.770 | league avg home 1.539 / away 1.371 • Poisson stance: Cavalry FC (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Vancouver FC xG
Expected Goals
1.85
Cavalry FC xG
52%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vancouver FC vs Cavalry FC kick off?
Vancouver FC vs Cavalry FC kicked off at 02:00 on Monday 14 July 2025 at Willoughby Community Park Stadium.
What was the final score in Vancouver FC vs Cavalry FC?
Vancouver FC 0 - 0 Cavalry FC.
Where is Vancouver FC vs Cavalry FC being played?
The match is being played at Willoughby Community Park Stadium.
What competition is Vancouver FC vs Cavalry FC part of?
Vancouver FC vs Cavalry FC is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Vancouver FC vs Cavalry FC?
Our statistical model gives Vancouver FC a 17% chance of winning, Cavalry FC a 58% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Cavalry FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vancouver FC vs Cavalry FC?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Vancouver FC and Cavalry FC will score (BTTS).
Will Vancouver FC vs Cavalry FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vancouver FC and Cavalry FC?
Record (4 meetings): Vancouver FC 0W | Draws 3 | Cavalry FC 1W.
What form are Vancouver FC and Cavalry FC in?
Vancouver FC (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Cavalry FC (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Vancouver FC's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against Cavalry FC's defensive record (0.77x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.91. Flip it around — Cavalry FC's attack (1.10x) against Vancouver FC's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.85.
These ratings are built from 41/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 0-2 (10.8%), 0-1 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cavalry FC Win
17%
5.92
25%
4.00
58%
1.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
10.8%
Away win
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Vancouver FC xG
Total xG
2.76
1.85
Cavalry FC xG
5.92
17%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
1.72
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
16%
6.33
40%
2.49
Win to Nil
3%
37.53
23%
4.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 11.7 | 10.8 | 6.7 | 3.1 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 10.7 | 9.9 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 4.9 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vancouver FC vs Cavalry FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Vancouver FC and Cavalry FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Vancouver FC and 1.85 for Cavalry FC, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Vancouver FC vs Cavalry FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Vancouver FC's recent record stands at 8W 13D 20L from 41 games, a 0.90 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Vancouver FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cavalry FC, meanwhile, have gone 20W 15D 6L across 41 games — 1.83 PPG, with D-W-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for Cavalry FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Cavalry FC by 0.93 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Vancouver FC heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Vancouver FC have managed 3W 6D 10L from 19 games — 0.79 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cavalry FC's away record stands at 10W 6D 3L across 19 trips, a 1.89 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cavalry FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Vancouver FC are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Cavalry FC are on 1.49 scored and 0.90 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cavalry FC in 61%.
Last 41 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vancouver FC
Blended
Cavalry FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vancouver FC and Cavalry FC in coming into this match?
Vancouver FC have gone 8W 13D 20L in their last 41 games (0.90 PPG), while Cavalry FC have gone 20W 15D 6L in their last 41 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vancouver FC at home or Cavalry FC away?
Cavalry FC's away record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vancouver FC at home: 0.79 PPG; Cavalry FC away: 1.89 PPG.
Have Vancouver FC or Cavalry FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vancouver FC have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Cavalry FC in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vancouver FC have gone 1W 3D 2L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Cavalry FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Vancouver FC
5
Draws
4
Cavalry FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vancouver FC and Cavalry FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Vancouver FC have won 1, Cavalry FC have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Vancouver FC and Cavalry FC last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Cavalry FC 1-0 Vancouver FC.
Who has won more matches between Vancouver FC and Cavalry FC?
Cavalry FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Vancouver FC see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Cavalry FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vancouver FC 47%, Cavalry FC 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Vancouver FC) and 37% (Cavalry FC).
On the defensive side: Cavalry FC in 32%; Vancouver FC have failed to score in 42% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vancouver FC home games / Cavalry FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vancouver FC play Cavalry FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Vancouver FC's recent matches and 58% of Cavalry FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vancouver FC vs Cavalry FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Vancouver FC's recent games and 37% of Cavalry FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vancouver FC and Cavalry FC tend to score early?
Vancouver FC have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Cavalry FC in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Vancouver FC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vancouver FC and Cavalry FC finished level at 0-0 at Willoughby Community Park Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vancouver FC 0.91 xG and Cavalry FC 1.85 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Vancouver FC fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Cavalry FC landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vancouver FC attack 0.77 / defence 1.23 against Cavalry FC attack 1.10 / defence 0.77, drawn from 41/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vancouver FC 17% | Draw 25% | Cavalry FC 58%, with Cavalry FC to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vancouver FC 51%, Cavalry FC 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vancouver FC's trading profile (41 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cavalry FC's trading profile (41 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Cavalry FC arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 0.90. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Vancouver FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.63 average — tighter than their form line. Cavalry FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.