Valour 1-1 York United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Valour take on York United.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
IG Field plays host to Valour versus York United in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off: Sunday 4 June 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
Valour's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Valour at IG Field this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at IG Field. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Valour are significantly better at IG Field than their overall form suggests.
York United (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W D W L D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
York United's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
York United arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading & In-Play
Valour — key trading statistics (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games).
York United — key trading statistics (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valour 50% versus York United 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valour 45% | York United 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valour 0.98 xG and York United 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valour attack 0.869 / defence 0.721 | York United attack 1.124 / defence 1.084. League average goals — home 1.038 / away 1.409. Valour's defence rating of 0.721 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 35 Valour games / 36 York United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valour 27% | Draw 38% | York United 35%. Fair-value odds: Valour 3.70 | Draw 2.63 | York United 2.86. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 27% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.12 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Valour 40% | York United 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valour vs York United | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: IG Field • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Jun 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valour 27% | Draw 38% | York United 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 46% | xG Valour 0.98 / York United 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Valour attack 0.869 / def 0.721 | York United attack 1.124 / def 1.084 | league avg home 1.038 / away 1.409 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Valour xG
Expected Goals
1.14
York United xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valour vs York United kick off?
Valour vs York United kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 4 June 2023 at IG Field.
What was the final score in Valour vs York United?
Valour 1 - 1 York United.
Where is Valour vs York United being played?
The match is being played at IG Field.
What competition is Valour vs York United part of?
Valour vs York United is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Valour vs York United?
Our statistical model gives Valour a 27% chance of winning, York United a 35% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Valour vs York United?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Valour and York United will score (BTTS).
Will Valour vs York United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valour and York United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Valour and York United in?
Valour (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. York United (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Valour's attack at 0.87x the league average against York United's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 0.98 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — York United's attack (1.12x) against Valour's defence (0.72x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 35/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 0-1 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
27%
3.70
38%
2.65
35%
2.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Valour xG
Total xG
2.12
1.14
York United xG
3.70
27%
Home win
2.65
38%
Draw
2.83
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.15
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
32%
3.13
38%
2.66
Win to Nil
9%
11.59
13%
7.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 13.7 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valour vs York United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Valour and York United expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Valour and 1.14 for York United, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Valour vs York United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Valour come into this having played 56 games, going 20W 12D 24L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-L.
On the other side, York United sit at 1.25 PPG from 56 outings (17W 19D 20L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.29 PPG for Valour against 1.25 for York United. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Valour's home form reads 14W 7D 7L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.75 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.29 PPG overall — Valour are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, York United have taken 1.18 points per game from 28 outings (8W 9D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Valour come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Valour are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; York United are on 1.18 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valour
Current Season
York United
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valour and York United in coming into this match?
Valour have gone 20W 12D 24L in their last 56 games (1.29 PPG), while York United have gone 17W 19D 20L in their last 56 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valour at home or York United away?
Valour's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valour at home: 1.75 PPG; York United away: 1.18 PPG.
Have Valour or York United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Valour have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, York United in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. They last met on 28 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Valour have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against York United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Valour
2
Draws
5
York United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valour and York United?
From 10 meetings on record, Valour have won 3, York United have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Valour and York United last play each other?
They last met on 28 September 2025, when York United 1-0 Valour.
Who has won more matches between Valour and York United?
York United have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Valour are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
York United see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valour 32%, York United 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Valour) and 50% (York United).
On the defensive side: Valour keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; York United in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valour home games / York United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valour play York United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of Valour's recent matches and 54% of York United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Valour vs York United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Valour's recent games and 50% of York United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Valour and York United tend to score early?
Valour have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, York United in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Valour and York United share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valour and York United finished level at 1-1 at IG Field, Regular Season - 5, in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valour 0.98 xG and York United 1.14 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valour attack 0.87 / defence 0.72 against York United attack 1.12 / defence 1.08, drawn from 35/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valour 27% | Draw 38% | York United 35%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valour 45%, York United 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valour's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
York United's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Valour 1.29 PPG, York United 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.