Valour 1-1 Pacific FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Pacific FC at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Valour vs Pacific FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Canadian Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Pacific FC travel to IG Field to take on Valour. The game is scheduled for Saturday 20 May 2023, 22:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Canadian Premier League games this season, Valour have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at IG Field, Valour have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at IG Field. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Valour are significantly better at IG Field than their overall form suggests.
Pacific FC — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Canadian Premier League fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Pacific FC away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Valour) versus 1.20 (Pacific FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Valour in-play and half-time data (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games).
Pacific FC in-play and half-time data (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valour 50% versus Pacific FC 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valour 45% | Pacific FC 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valour 0.88 xG and Pacific FC 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valour attack 0.914 / defence 0.722 | Pacific FC attack 1.249 / defence 1.018. League average goals — home 0.943 / away 1.548. Pacific FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.249 — the away xG of 1.40 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Valour's defence rating of 0.722 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 33 Valour games / 33 Pacific FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Valour 20% | Draw 35% | Pacific FC 45%. Fair-value odds: Valour 5.00 | Draw 2.86 | Pacific FC 2.22. Pacific FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (35%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Pacific FC as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pacific FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.27 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Valour 40% | Pacific FC 40% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (33 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valour vs Pacific FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: IG Field • Kick-off: Saturday 20 May 2023, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valour 20% | Draw 35% | Pacific FC 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 48% | xG Valour 0.88 / Pacific FC 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Valour attack 0.914 / def 0.722 | Pacific FC attack 1.249 / def 1.018 | league avg home 0.943 / away 1.548 • Poisson stance: Pacific FC (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Valour xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Pacific FC xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valour vs Pacific FC kick off?
Valour vs Pacific FC kicked off at 22:00 on Saturday 20 May 2023 at IG Field.
What was the final score in Valour vs Pacific FC?
Valour 1 - 1 Pacific FC.
Where is Valour vs Pacific FC being played?
The match is being played at IG Field.
What competition is Valour vs Pacific FC part of?
Valour vs Pacific FC is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Valour vs Pacific FC?
Our statistical model gives Valour a 20% chance of winning, Pacific FC a 45% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Pacific FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valour vs Pacific FC?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Valour and Pacific FC will score (BTTS).
Will Valour vs Pacific FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valour and Pacific FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Valour and Pacific FC in?
Valour (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Pacific FC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Valour's attack rating (0.91) and Pacific FC's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 0.88 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Pacific FC's attack versus Valour's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (33/33 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.7%), 0-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pacific FC Win
20%
5.04
35%
2.86
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Valour xG
Total xG
2.27
1.40
Pacific FC xG
5.04
20%
Home win
2.86
35%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
25%
4.03
42%
2.41
Win to Nil
5%
20.33
19%
5.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 14.4 | 10.0 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.6 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 5.5 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valour vs Pacific FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Valour and Pacific FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Valour and 1.40 for Pacific FC, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Valour vs Pacific FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 56 outings, Valour have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 20W 12D 24L record — L-D-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Pacific FC's form line: 26W 13D 17L from 56 games, 1.62 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Valour on 1.29 PPG, Pacific FC on 1.62. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Valour have posted 1.75 PPG from 28 outings (14W 7D 7L). That's noticeably better than their 1.29 PPG overall — Valour are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Pacific FC have gone 11W 6D 11L from 28 away games — 1.39 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Valour are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Pacific FC are on 1.46 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valour
Current Season
Pacific FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valour and Pacific FC in coming into this match?
Valour have gone 20W 12D 24L in their last 56 games (1.29 PPG), while Pacific FC have gone 26W 13D 17L in their last 56 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valour at home or Pacific FC away?
Valour's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valour at home: 1.75 PPG; Pacific FC away: 1.39 PPG.
Have Valour or Pacific FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Valour have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Pacific FC in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. They last met on 18 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Jul 2023, when Pacific FC won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Valour's record when hosting Pacific FC specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Valour
2
Draws
5
Pacific FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valour and Pacific FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Valour have won 3, Pacific FC have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Valour and Pacific FC last play each other?
They last met on 18 October 2025, when Pacific FC 1-4 Valour.
Who has won more matches between Valour and Pacific FC?
Pacific FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Valour are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Pacific FC see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valour 32%, Pacific FC 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 29% for Valour and 39% for Pacific FC.
On the defensive side: Valour keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Pacific FC in 32%; Pacific FC in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valour home games / Pacific FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valour play Pacific FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of Valour's recent matches and 43% of Pacific FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Valour vs Pacific FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Valour's recent games and 39% of Pacific FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Valour and Pacific FC tend to score early?
Valour have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Pacific FC in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Valour and Pacific FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at IG Field, Regular Season - 4, as Valour and Pacific FC drew 1-1 in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valour 0.88 xG and Pacific FC 1.40 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valour attack 0.91 / defence 0.72 against Pacific FC attack 1.25 / defence 1.02, drawn from 33/33 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Valour 20% | Draw 35% | Pacific FC 45%, with Pacific FC to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valour 45%, Pacific FC 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valour's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Pacific FC's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Valour 1.29 PPG, Pacific FC 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.