Valour 1-3 Pacific FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Valour at 35%, yet in-form Pacific FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Valour vs Pacific FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Canadian Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees Pacific FC travel to IG Field to take on Valour. The game is scheduled for Thursday 30 September 2021, 00:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Canadian Premier League games this season, Valour have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Valour, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at IG Field, Valour have gone 5W 1D 3L this season (9 games, 1.78 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.78 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 9 home games (56%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at IG Field. At home, both teams have scored in only 11% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.78 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Valour are significantly better at IG Field than their overall form suggests.
Pacific FC — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Canadian Premier League fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W D D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Pacific FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pacific FC away from home this season: 3W 4D 2L from 9 away games — 1.44 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 9 away games (44%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form points away from home here. Pacific FC's 1.60 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Valour's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Trading Patterns
Valour in-play and half-time data (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 11% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Pacific FC in-play and half-time data (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valour 32% versus Pacific FC 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valour 42% | Pacific FC 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valour 1.03 xG and Pacific FC 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valour attack 0.914 / defence 1.097 | Pacific FC attack 0.890 / defence 1.092. League average goals — home 1.036 / away 1.043. Data: 19 Valour games / 20 Pacific FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valour 35% | Draw 30% | Pacific FC 34%. Fair-value odds: Valour 2.86 | Draw 3.33 | Pacific FC 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Valour as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Pacific FC (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Valour offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.05 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Valour 11% | Pacific FC 44% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valour vs Pacific FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: IG Field • Kick-off: Thursday 30 Sep 2021, 00:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valour 35% | Draw 30% | Pacific FC 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 41% | xG Valour 1.03 / Pacific FC 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Valour attack 0.914 / def 1.097 | Pacific FC attack 0.890 / def 1.092 | league avg home 1.036 / away 1.043 • Poisson stance: Valour (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Valour xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Pacific FC xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valour vs Pacific FC kick off?
Valour vs Pacific FC kicked off at 00:45 on Thursday 30 September 2021 at IG Field.
What was the final score in Valour vs Pacific FC?
Valour 1 - 3 Pacific FC.
Where is Valour vs Pacific FC being played?
The match is being played at IG Field.
What competition is Valour vs Pacific FC part of?
Valour vs Pacific FC is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Valour vs Pacific FC?
Our statistical model gives Valour a 35% chance of winning, Pacific FC a 34% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Valour the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valour vs Pacific FC?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Valour and Pacific FC will score (BTTS).
Will Valour vs Pacific FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valour and Pacific FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Valour and Pacific FC in?
Valour (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Pacific FC (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Valour's attack rating (0.91) and Pacific FC's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.03 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Pacific FC's attack versus Valour's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.6%), 1-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valour Win
35%
2.84
30%
3.29
34%
2.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Valour xG
Total xG
2.05
1.02
Pacific FC xG
2.84
35%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
2.90
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.43
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
36%
2.77
36%
2.81
Win to Nil
13%
7.87
12%
8.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 13.1 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 13.5 | 6.9 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 7.0 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valour vs Pacific FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Valour and Pacific FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Valour and 1.02 for Pacific FC, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Valour vs Pacific FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 19 outings, Valour have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 7W 2D 10L record — L-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Valour is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pacific FC's form line: 9W 6D 4L from 19 games, 1.74 PPG, last five W-W-D-D-L. The sample for Pacific FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Pacific FC are the form team by 0.53 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Valour.
Venue Form
On home soil, Valour have posted 1.78 PPG from 9 outings (5W 1D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.21 PPG overall — Valour are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Pacific FC have gone 3W 4D 2L from 9 away games — 1.44 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Valour are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Pacific FC are on 1.63 scored and 1.16 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pacific FC in 63%.
Defensively: Valour have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valour
Blended
Pacific FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valour and Pacific FC in coming into this match?
Valour have gone 7W 2D 10L in their last 19 games (1.21 PPG), while Pacific FC have gone 9W 6D 4L in their last 19 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valour at home or Pacific FC away?
Valour's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valour at home: 1.78 PPG; Pacific FC away: 1.44 PPG.
Have Valour or Pacific FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Valour have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Pacific FC in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. They last met on 18 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Jul 2023, when Pacific FC won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Valour's record when hosting Pacific FC specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Valour
2
Draws
5
Pacific FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valour and Pacific FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Valour have won 3, Pacific FC have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Valour and Pacific FC last play each other?
They last met on 18 October 2025, when Pacific FC 1-4 Valour.
Who has won more matches between Valour and Pacific FC?
Pacific FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Valour are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Pacific FC see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Valour 11% BTTS, Pacific FC 44%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Valour) and 44% (Pacific FC).
On the defensive side: Valour keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Pacific FC in 44%; Valour have failed to score in 33% of games; Pacific FC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valour home games / Pacific FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valour play Pacific FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 11% of Valour's recent matches and 44% of Pacific FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Valour vs Pacific FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Valour's recent games and 44% of Pacific FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Valour and Pacific FC tend to score early?
Valour have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Pacific FC in 44% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pacific FC cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Valour.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pacific FC beat Valour 1-3 at IG Field, Regular Season - 9, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valour 1.03 xG and Pacific FC 1.02 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Pacific FC outscored their 1.02 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valour attack 0.91 / defence 1.10 against Pacific FC attack 0.89 / defence 1.09, drawn from 19/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valour 35% | Draw 30% | Pacific FC 34%, with Valour to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Pacific FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valour 42%, Pacific FC 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valour's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Pacific FC's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Pacific FC arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.21. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Valour (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Pacific FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.