Valour 1-1 FC Edmonton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Valour at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Valour vs FC Edmonton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
IG Field plays host to Valour versus FC Edmonton in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off: Sunday 5 June 2022 at 21:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Valour have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at IG Field, Valour have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
FC Edmonton (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L D L D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
FC Edmonton away from home this season: 1W 5D 4L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Valour against 1.00 for FC Edmonton. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 7 meetings: Valour 1W, FC Edmonton 2W, 4D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.9 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 10 Apr 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Valour half-time and goal-timing data (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
FC Edmonton half-time and goal-timing data (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valour 43% versus FC Edmonton 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valour 50% | FC Edmonton 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valour 1.31 xG and FC Edmonton 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valour attack 0.761 / defence 0.788 | FC Edmonton attack 0.861 / defence 1.307. League average goals — home 1.315 / away 1.193. Valour's attack strength of 0.761 is below the league average — the 1.31 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. FC Edmonton bring a strong defensive rating of 1.307 — this is suppressing Valour's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Valour's defence rating of 0.788 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 36 Valour games / 37 FC Edmonton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valour 48% | Draw 29% | FC Edmonton 23%. Fair-value odds: Valour 2.08 | Draw 3.45 | FC Edmonton 4.35. Valour hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.12 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Valour are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Valour if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.12 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates are neutral: Valour 40% | FC Edmonton 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valour vs FC Edmonton | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: IG Field • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Jun 2022, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valour 48% | Draw 29% | FC Edmonton 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 40% | xG Valour 1.31 / FC Edmonton 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Valour attack 0.761 / def 0.788 | FC Edmonton attack 0.861 / def 1.307 | league avg home 1.315 / away 1.193 • Poisson stance: Valour (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Valour xG
Expected Goals
0.81
FC Edmonton xG
40%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valour vs FC Edmonton kick off?
Valour vs FC Edmonton kicked off at 21:00 on Sunday 5 June 2022 at IG Field.
What was the final score in Valour vs FC Edmonton?
Valour 1 - 1 FC Edmonton.
Where is Valour vs FC Edmonton being played?
The match is being played at IG Field.
What competition is Valour vs FC Edmonton part of?
Valour vs FC Edmonton is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Valour vs FC Edmonton?
Our statistical model gives Valour a 48% chance of winning, FC Edmonton a 23% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Valour the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valour vs FC Edmonton?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Valour and FC Edmonton will score (BTTS).
Will Valour vs FC Edmonton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valour and FC Edmonton?
Record (7 meetings): Valour 1W | Draws 4 | FC Edmonton 2W.
What form are Valour and FC Edmonton in?
Valour (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-W-D. FC Edmonton (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Valour's attacking strength (0.76x league average) is weighed against FC Edmonton's defensive record (1.31x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.31. Flip it around — FC Edmonton's attack (0.86x) against Valour's defence (0.79x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 36/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (14.1%), 0-0 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valour Win
48%
2.07
29%
3.50
23%
4.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Valour xG
Total xG
2.12
0.81
FC Edmonton xG
2.07
48%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
4.33
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.47
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
45%
2.25
27%
3.70
Win to Nil
22%
4.65
6%
16.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 9.7 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.8 | 12.7 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.3 | 8.3 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.5 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valour vs FC Edmonton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Valour and FC Edmonton expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Valour and 0.81 for FC Edmonton, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Valour vs FC Edmonton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 28 outings, Valour have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 10W 5D 13L record — L-L-W-W-D across the most recent five.
FC Edmonton's form line: 6W 10D 12L from 28 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-D-L-D-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for Valour against 1.00 for FC Edmonton. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Valour have posted 1.71 PPG from 14 outings (7W 3D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.25 PPG overall — Valour are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, FC Edmonton have gone 1W 6D 7L from 14 away games — 0.64 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Valour come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Valour are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; FC Edmonton are on 1.21 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Edmonton in 61%.
Defensively: Valour have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valour
Current Season
FC Edmonton
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valour and FC Edmonton in coming into this match?
Valour have gone 10W 5D 13L in their last 28 games (1.25 PPG), while FC Edmonton have gone 6W 10D 12L in their last 28 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valour at home or FC Edmonton away?
Valour's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valour at home: 1.71 PPG; FC Edmonton away: 0.64 PPG.
Have Valour or FC Edmonton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Valour have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, FC Edmonton in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Valour won 3-0 on 25 Aug 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Valour have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC Edmonton — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Valour
6
Draws
3
FC Edmonton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valour and FC Edmonton?
From 10 meetings on record, Valour have won 1, FC Edmonton have won 3, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Valour and FC Edmonton last play each other?
They last met on 8 October 2022, when FC Edmonton 3-1 Valour.
Who has won more matches between Valour and FC Edmonton?
FC Edmonton have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Valour are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
FC Edmonton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valour 29%, FC Edmonton 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Valour) and 50% (FC Edmonton).
On the defensive side: Valour keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Valour have failed to score in 29% of games; FC Edmonton in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valour home games / FC Edmonton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valour play FC Edmonton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Valour's recent matches and 64% of FC Edmonton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Valour vs FC Edmonton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Valour's recent games and 50% of FC Edmonton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Valour and FC Edmonton tend to score early?
Valour have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, FC Edmonton in 93% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Valour and FC Edmonton share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valour and FC Edmonton finished level at 1-1 at IG Field, Regular Season - 5, in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valour 1.31 xG and FC Edmonton 0.81 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valour attack 0.76 / defence 0.79 against FC Edmonton attack 0.86 / defence 1.31, drawn from 36/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valour 48% | Draw 29% | FC Edmonton 23%, with Valour to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valour 50%, FC Edmonton 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valour's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
FC Edmonton's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Valour 1.25 PPG, FC Edmonton 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.