Valour 0-2 Atlético Ottawa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Valour take on Atlético Ottawa.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Princess Auto Stadium plays host to Valour versus Atlético Ottawa in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off: Sunday 9 June 2024 at 18:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Valour have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 3W 0D 7L. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Valour have posted 3W 0D 7L at Princess Auto Stadium — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Atlético Ottawa (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Atlético Ottawa away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Valour, 2 for Atlético Ottawa and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 May 2024, ended 0–2 with Atlético Ottawa winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Valour half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games).
Atlético Ottawa half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valour 52% versus Atlético Ottawa 48%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Valour 38% | Atlético Ottawa 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valour 1.21 xG and Atlético Ottawa 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valour attack 0.996 / defence 0.911 | Atlético Ottawa attack 1.245 / defence 0.791. League average goals — home 1.539 / away 0.895. Atlético Ottawa's defence strength of 0.791 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Atlético Ottawa have an above-average attack strength of 1.245 — the away xG of 1.01 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 36 Valour games / 36 Atlético Ottawa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valour 37% | Draw 37% | Atlético Ottawa 27%. Fair-value odds: Valour 2.70 | Draw 2.70 | Atlético Ottawa 3.70. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 37% and away win at 27% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.23 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates corroborate: Valour 40% | Atlético Ottawa 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valour vs Atlético Ottawa | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Princess Auto Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Jun 2024, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valour 37% | Draw 37% | Atlético Ottawa 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 49% | xG Valour 1.21 / Atlético Ottawa 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Valour attack 0.996 / def 0.911 | Atlético Ottawa attack 1.245 / def 0.791 | league avg home 1.539 / away 0.895 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Valour xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Atlético Ottawa xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valour vs Atlético Ottawa kick off?
Valour vs Atlético Ottawa kicked off at 18:30 on Sunday 9 June 2024 at Princess Auto Stadium.
What was the final score in Valour vs Atlético Ottawa?
Valour 0 - 2 Atlético Ottawa.
Where is Valour vs Atlético Ottawa being played?
The match is being played at Princess Auto Stadium.
What competition is Valour vs Atlético Ottawa part of?
Valour vs Atlético Ottawa is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Valour vs Atlético Ottawa?
Our statistical model gives Valour a 37% chance of winning, Atlético Ottawa a 27% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Valour vs Atlético Ottawa?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Valour and Atlético Ottawa will score (BTTS).
Will Valour vs Atlético Ottawa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valour and Atlético Ottawa?
Record (3 meetings): Valour 1W | Draws 0 | Atlético Ottawa 2W.
What form are Valour and Atlético Ottawa in?
Valour (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Atlético Ottawa (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Valour's attack at 1.00x the league average against Atlético Ottawa's defence at 0.79x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Atlético Ottawa's attack (1.25x) against Valour's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.5%), 1-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
37%
2.73
37%
2.72
27%
3.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Valour xG
Total xG
2.23
1.01
Atlético Ottawa xG
2.73
37%
Home win
2.72
37%
Draw
3.75
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
30%
3.36
Win to Nil
13%
7.53
8%
12.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 10.9 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 13.3 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.0 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valour vs Atlético Ottawa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Valour and Atlético Ottawa expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Valour and 1.01 for Atlético Ottawa, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Valour vs Atlético Ottawa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 56 outings, Valour have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 16W 15D 25L record — L-L-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Atlético Ottawa's form line: 22W 17D 17L from 56 games, 1.48 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for Valour against 1.48 for Atlético Ottawa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Valour have posted 1.36 PPG from 28 outings (10W 8D 10L).
On the road, Atlético Ottawa have gone 14W 5D 9L from 28 away games — 1.68 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Valour are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Atlético Ottawa are on 1.32 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valour
Current Season
Atlético Ottawa
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valour and Atlético Ottawa in coming into this match?
Valour have gone 16W 15D 25L in their last 56 games (1.12 PPG), while Atlético Ottawa have gone 22W 17D 17L in their last 56 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valour at home or Atlético Ottawa away?
Atlético Ottawa's away record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valour at home: 1.36 PPG; Atlético Ottawa away: 1.68 PPG.
Have Valour or Atlético Ottawa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Valour have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Atlético Ottawa in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. They last met on 5 October 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Atlético Ottawa won 5-2 on 10 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Valour have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Atlético Ottawa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Valour
3
Draws
6
Atlético Ottawa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valour and Atlético Ottawa?
From 10 meetings on record, Valour have won 1, Atlético Ottawa have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Valour and Atlético Ottawa last play each other?
They last met on 5 October 2025, when Valour 3-3 Atlético Ottawa.
Who has won more matches between Valour and Atlético Ottawa?
Atlético Ottawa have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Valour see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Atlético Ottawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valour 43%, Atlético Ottawa 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Valour and 43% for Atlético Ottawa.
On the defensive side: Valour keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Atlético Ottawa in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valour home games / Atlético Ottawa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valour play Atlético Ottawa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Valour's recent matches and 46% of Atlético Ottawa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Valour vs Atlético Ottawa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Valour's recent games and 43% of Atlético Ottawa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Valour and Atlético Ottawa tend to score early?
Valour have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Atlético Ottawa in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Atlético Ottawa cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Valour.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atlético Ottawa beat Valour 0-2 at Princess Auto Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valour 1.21 xG and Atlético Ottawa 1.01 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Valour fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Atlético Ottawa outscored their 1.01 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valour attack 1.00 / defence 0.91 against Atlético Ottawa attack 1.25 / defence 0.79, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valour 37% | Draw 37% | Atlético Ottawa 27%, with Valour to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Atlético Ottawa win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valour 38%, Atlético Ottawa 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valour's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Atlético Ottawa's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Valour 1.12 PPG, Atlético Ottawa 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Atlético Ottawa win broke the near-deadlock. Valour (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Atlético Ottawa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.