Pacific FC 4-1 York United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as Pacific FC take on York United.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Canadian Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees York United travel to Starlight Stadium to take on Pacific FC. The game is scheduled for Sunday 14 May 2023, 23:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Canadian Premier League games this season, Pacific FC have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W W L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Pacific FC's home record at Starlight Stadium: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Canadian Premier League appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, York United stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Canadian Premier League matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D W L D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, York United have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. York United are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Profile
Pacific FC in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games).
York United in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pacific FC 56% versus York United 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pacific FC 54% | York United 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pacific FC 0.78 xG and York United 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pacific FC attack 0.938 / defence 0.813 | York United attack 0.895 / defence 0.909. League average goals — home 0.918 / away 1.517. Data: 32 Pacific FC games / 32 York United games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Pacific FC 22% | Draw 39% | York United 39%. Fair-value odds: Pacific FC 4.55 | Draw 2.56 | York United 2.56. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.89. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.89 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 22% and away win at 39% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.89 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 29% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates corroborate: Pacific FC 50% | York United 40% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (32 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pacific FC vs York United | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Starlight Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 14 May 2023, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pacific FC 22% | Draw 39% | York United 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 40% | xG Pacific FC 0.78 / York United 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Pacific FC attack 0.938 / def 0.813 | York United attack 0.895 / def 0.909 | league avg home 0.918 / away 1.517 • Poisson stance: Draw (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.78
Pacific FC xG
Expected Goals
1.10
York United xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pacific FC vs York United kick off?
Pacific FC vs York United kicked off at 23:00 on Sunday 14 May 2023 at Starlight Stadium.
What was the final score in Pacific FC vs York United?
Pacific FC 4 - 1 York United.
Where is Pacific FC vs York United being played?
The match is being played at Starlight Stadium.
What competition is Pacific FC vs York United part of?
Pacific FC vs York United is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Pacific FC vs York United?
Our statistical model gives Pacific FC a 22% chance of winning, York United a 39% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Pacific FC vs York United?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Pacific FC and York United will score (BTTS).
Will Pacific FC vs York United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pacific FC and York United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pacific FC and York United in?
Pacific FC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-L-D. York United (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Pacific FC's attack at 0.94x the league average against York United's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 0.78 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, York United's attack versus Pacific FC's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (32/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (15.0%), 1-1 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
22%
4.59
39%
2.55
39%
2.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.2%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.78
Pacific FC xG
Total xG
1.89
1.10
York United xG
4.59
22%
Home win
2.55
39%
Draw
2.57
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.49
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
33%
3.02
46%
2.19
Win to Nil
7%
13.84
18%
5.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.2 | 16.7 | 9.2 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.1 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pacific FC vs York United?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.9%.
How many goals are Pacific FC and York United expected to score?
The model projects 0.78 expected goals for Pacific FC and 1.10 for York United, a combined total of 1.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Pacific FC vs York United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Pacific FC's recent record stands at 27W 13D 17L from 57 games, a 1.65 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-D in the last five.
York United, meanwhile, have gone 17W 19D 21L across 57 games — 1.23 PPG, with W-D-W-L-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Pacific FC by 0.42 — a real, if not enormous, edge over York United heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Pacific FC have managed 15W 7D 6L from 28 games — 1.86 PPG in front of their own supporters.
York United's away record stands at 8W 9D 11L across 28 trips, a 1.18 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pacific FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Pacific FC are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; York United are on 1.18 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 57 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pacific FC
Current Season
York United
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pacific FC and York United in coming into this match?
Pacific FC have gone 27W 13D 17L in their last 57 games (1.65 PPG), while York United have gone 17W 19D 21L in their last 57 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pacific FC at home or York United away?
Pacific FC's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pacific FC at home: 1.86 PPG; York United away: 1.18 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Pacific FC and York United runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Aug 2025, when York United won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Pacific FC's record when hosting York United specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Pacific FC
3
Draws
5
York United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pacific FC and York United?
From 10 meetings on record, Pacific FC have won 2, York United have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pacific FC and York United last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Pacific FC 1-1 York United.
Who has won more matches between Pacific FC and York United?
York United have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Pacific FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
York United see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pacific FC 71%, York United 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Pacific FC and 50% for York United. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: York United in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pacific FC home games / York United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pacific FC play York United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Pacific FC's games and 54% of York United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pacific FC vs York United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Pacific FC's matches and 50% of York United's.
Do Pacific FC and York United tend to score early?
Pacific FC have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, York United in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Pacific FC run riot with a 4-1 hammering of York United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pacific FC beat York United 4-1 at Starlight Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pacific FC 0.78 xG and York United 1.10 xG, a combined 1.89. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Pacific FC beat their projection by 3.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pacific FC attack 0.94 / defence 0.81 against York United attack 0.90 / defence 0.91, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Pacific FC 22% | Draw 39% | York United 39%, with York United to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a Pacific FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 12% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pacific FC 54%, York United 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pacific FC's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
York United's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Pacific FC arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.23. That form edge translated into the three points. Pacific FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.89 average — above their attacking norm. York United (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.