Pacific FC 0-0 York United – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Pacific FC at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pacific FC vs York United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Canadian Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees York United travel to Starlight Stadium to take on Pacific FC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 21 May 2022, 03:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Canadian Premier League games this season, Pacific FC have gone 5W 0D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Pacific FC's home record at Starlight Stadium: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Canadian Premier League appearances (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Pacific FC are significantly better at Starlight Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, York United stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Canadian Premier League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, York United have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Pacific FC are in the better shape of the two on current Canadian Premier League data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Both teams score in over 90% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Profile
Pacific FC in-play tendencies (29 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 85% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 85% of games (home games).
York United in-play tendencies (29 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Pacific FC 66% and York United 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pacific FC 66% | York United 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pacific FC 1.76 xG and York United 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pacific FC attack 1.312 / defence 1.007 | York United attack 0.879 / defence 1.000. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.190. Pacific FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.312 — their λ of 1.76 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 35 Pacific FC games / 34 York United games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Pacific FC 54% | Draw 24% | York United 23%. Fair-value odds: Pacific FC 1.85 | Draw 4.17 | York United 4.35. Pacific FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Pacific FC as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pacific FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.81 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Pacific FC 90% | York United 90% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pacific FC vs York United | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Starlight Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 21 May 2022, 03:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pacific FC 54% | Draw 24% | York United 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 54% | xG Pacific FC 1.76 / York United 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Pacific FC attack 1.312 / def 1.007 | York United attack 0.879 / def 1.000 | league avg home 1.339 / away 1.190 • Poisson stance: Pacific FC (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Pacific FC xG
Expected Goals
1.05
York United xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pacific FC vs York United kick off?
Pacific FC vs York United kicked off at 03:00 on Saturday 21 May 2022 at Starlight Stadium.
What was the final score in Pacific FC vs York United?
Pacific FC 0 - 0 York United.
Where is Pacific FC vs York United being played?
The match is being played at Starlight Stadium.
What competition is Pacific FC vs York United part of?
Pacific FC vs York United is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Pacific FC vs York United?
Our statistical model gives Pacific FC a 54% chance of winning, York United a 23% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Pacific FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pacific FC vs York United?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Pacific FC and York United will score (BTTS).
Will Pacific FC vs York United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pacific FC and York United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pacific FC and York United in?
Pacific FC (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. York United (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Pacific FC's attack at 1.31x the league average against York United's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.76 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, York United's attack versus Pacific FC's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (35/34 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pacific FC Win
54%
1.86
24%
4.26
23%
4.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Pacific FC xG
Total xG
2.81
1.05
York United xG
1.86
54%
Home win
4.26
24%
Draw
4.42
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
17%
5.80
Win to Nil
19%
5.32
4%
25.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 11.1 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.8 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pacific FC vs York United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Pacific FC and York United expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Pacific FC and 1.05 for York United, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Pacific FC vs York United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Pacific FC's recent record stands at 14W 6D 9L from 29 games, a 1.66 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-W in the last five.
York United, meanwhile, have gone 8W 12D 9L across 29 games — 1.24 PPG, with D-W-L-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Pacific FC by 0.42 — a real, if not enormous, edge over York United heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Pacific FC have managed 8W 2D 3L from 13 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
York United's away record stands at 4W 4D 5L across 13 trips, a 1.23 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pacific FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Pacific FC are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; York United are on 1.24 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pacific FC have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games; York United in 69%.
Last 29 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pacific FC
Current Season
York United
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pacific FC and York United in coming into this match?
Pacific FC have gone 14W 6D 9L in their last 29 games (1.66 PPG), while York United have gone 8W 12D 9L in their last 29 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pacific FC at home or York United away?
Pacific FC's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pacific FC at home: 2.00 PPG; York United away: 1.23 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Pacific FC and York United runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Aug 2025, when York United won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Pacific FC's record when hosting York United specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Pacific FC
3
Draws
5
York United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pacific FC and York United?
From 10 meetings on record, Pacific FC have won 2, York United have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pacific FC and York United last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Pacific FC 1-1 York United.
Who has won more matches between Pacific FC and York United?
York United have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Pacific FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
York United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Pacific FC at 85%, York United at 69%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 85% for Pacific FC and 69% for York United. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pacific FC home games / York United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pacific FC play York United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 85% of Pacific FC's games and 69% of York United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pacific FC vs York United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 85% of Pacific FC's matches and 69% of York United's.
Do Pacific FC and York United tend to score early?
Pacific FC have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, York United in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Pacific FC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Starlight Stadium, Regular Season - 4, as Pacific FC and York United drew 0-0 in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pacific FC 1.76 xG and York United 1.05 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Pacific FC fell 1.8 short of their projected output. York United landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pacific FC attack 1.31 / defence 1.01 against York United attack 0.88 / defence 1.00, drawn from 35/34 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Pacific FC 54% | Draw 24% | York United 23%, with Pacific FC to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pacific FC 66%, York United 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pacific FC's trading profile (29 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
York United's trading profile (29 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Pacific FC arrived the stronger side — 1.66 PPG against 1.24. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Pacific FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.38 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line. York United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.