Pacific FC 1-3 York United – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Pacific FC at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pacific FC vs York United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Canadian Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees York United travel to Starlight Stadium to take on Pacific FC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 14 June 2025, 23:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Canadian Premier League games this season, Pacific FC have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Pacific FC's home record at Starlight Stadium: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Canadian Premier League appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, York United stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Canadian Premier League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, York United have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Pacific FC 1.40 PPG, York United 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Pacific FC, 1 for York United and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 May 2025, ended 2–1 with Pacific FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Pacific FC in-play tendencies (59 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
York United in-play tendencies (59 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pacific FC 48% versus York United 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pacific FC 44% | York United 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pacific FC 1.24 xG and York United 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pacific FC attack 0.734 / defence 0.906 | York United attack 1.013 / defence 1.097. League average goals — home 1.539 / away 1.210. Pacific FC's attack strength of 0.734 is below the league average — the 1.24 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 38 Pacific FC games / 38 York United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pacific FC 37% | Draw 32% | York United 31%. Fair-value odds: Pacific FC 2.70 | Draw 3.12 | York United 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Pacific FC as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pacific FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.35 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Pacific FC 40% | York United 60%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pacific FC vs York United | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Starlight Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Jun 2025, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pacific FC 37% | Draw 32% | York United 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 50% | xG Pacific FC 1.24 / York United 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Pacific FC attack 0.734 / def 0.906 | York United attack 1.013 / def 1.097 | league avg home 1.539 / away 1.210 • Poisson stance: Pacific FC (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Pacific FC xG
Expected Goals
1.11
York United xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pacific FC vs York United kick off?
Pacific FC vs York United kicked off at 23:00 on Saturday 14 June 2025 at Starlight Stadium.
What was the final score in Pacific FC vs York United?
Pacific FC 1 - 3 York United.
Where is Pacific FC vs York United being played?
The match is being played at Starlight Stadium.
What competition is Pacific FC vs York United part of?
Pacific FC vs York United is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Pacific FC vs York United?
Our statistical model gives Pacific FC a 37% chance of winning, York United a 31% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Pacific FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pacific FC vs York United?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Pacific FC and York United will score (BTTS).
Will Pacific FC vs York United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pacific FC and York United?
Record (4 meetings): Pacific FC 2W | Draws 1 | York United 1W.
What form are Pacific FC and York United in?
Pacific FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. York United (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Pacific FC's attack at 0.73x the league average against York United's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.24 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, York United's attack versus Pacific FC's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.3%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pacific FC Win
37%
2.69
32%
3.14
31%
3.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Pacific FC xG
Total xG
2.35
1.11
York United xG
2.69
37%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
3.24
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
29%
3.45
Win to Nil
12%
8.15
9%
11.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 10.6 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.1 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pacific FC vs York United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Pacific FC and York United expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Pacific FC and 1.11 for York United, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Pacific FC vs York United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Pacific FC's recent record stands at 21W 14D 24L from 59 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-L in the last five.
York United, meanwhile, have gone 23W 12D 24L across 59 games — 1.37 PPG, with W-L-L-W-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pacific FC on 1.31 PPG, York United on 1.37. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Pacific FC have managed 11W 7D 10L from 28 games — 1.43 PPG in front of their own supporters.
York United's away record stands at 10W 7D 11L across 28 trips, a 1.32 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Pacific FC are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; York United are on 1.25 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pacific FC
Current Season
York United
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pacific FC and York United in coming into this match?
Pacific FC have gone 21W 14D 24L in their last 59 games (1.31 PPG), while York United have gone 23W 12D 24L in their last 59 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pacific FC at home or York United away?
Pacific FC's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pacific FC at home: 1.43 PPG; York United away: 1.32 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Pacific FC and York United runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 9 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Aug 2025, when York United won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Pacific FC's record when hosting York United specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Pacific FC
4
Draws
4
York United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pacific FC and York United?
From 10 meetings on record, Pacific FC have won 2, York United have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Pacific FC and York United last play each other?
They last met on 9 September 2026, when York United 3-3 Pacific FC.
Who has won more matches between Pacific FC and York United?
York United have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Pacific FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
York United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pacific FC 43%, York United 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Pacific FC) and 64% (York United).
On the defensive side: Pacific FC keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pacific FC home games / York United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pacific FC play York United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 43% of Pacific FC's games and 68% of York United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pacific FC vs York United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Pacific FC's recent games and 64% of York United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pacific FC and York United tend to score early?
Pacific FC have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, York United in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
York United cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Pacific FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
York United beat Pacific FC 1-3 at Starlight Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pacific FC 1.24 xG and York United 1.11 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. York United outscored their 1.11 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pacific FC attack 0.73 / defence 0.91 against York United attack 1.01 / defence 1.10, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pacific FC 37% | Draw 32% | York United 31%, with Pacific FC to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual York United win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pacific FC 44%, York United 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pacific FC's trading profile (59 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
York United's trading profile (59 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pacific FC 1.31 PPG, York United 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the York United win broke the near-deadlock. Pacific FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. York United (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.32 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.