Pacific FC 1-2 Vancouver FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pacific FC at 53% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Pacific FC face Vancouver FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Vancouver FC travel to Starlight Stadium to take on Pacific FC in Canadian Premier League (matchday 12). The game is scheduled for Saturday 30 September 2023 at 23:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Pacific FC stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Pacific FC's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Vancouver FC have recorded 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Vancouver FC away from home: 1W 1D 8L from their last 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Pacific FC) versus 1.30 (Vancouver FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Profile
Pacific FC in-play tendencies (last 26 games, 13 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games).
Vancouver FC in-play tendencies (last 26 games, 13 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pacific FC 62% versus Vancouver FC 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pacific FC 46% | Vancouver FC 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pacific FC 1.43 xG and Vancouver FC 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pacific FC attack 0.907 / defence 0.894 | Vancouver FC attack 0.621 / defence 1.200. League average goals — home 1.312 / away 1.357. Vancouver FC's attack rating of 0.621 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.75. Data: built from Pacific FC's last 54 games and Vancouver FC's last 26.
Result probabilities: Pacific FC 53% | Draw 28% | Vancouver FC 20%. Fair-value odds: Pacific FC 1.89 | Draw 3.62 | Vancouver FC 5.12. Pacific FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 40% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 60% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Pacific FC at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pacific FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.18 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 63% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 60%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Pacific FC 60% (last 10 home games) | Vancouver FC 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pacific FC vs Vancouver FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, matchday 12 | Venue: Starlight Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 30 September 2023 at 23:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pacific FC 53% | Draw 28% | Vancouver FC 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% (Under 63%) | BTTS Yes 40% (No 60%) | xG Pacific FC 1.43 / Vancouver FC 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: Pacific FC attack 0.907 / def 0.894 | Vancouver FC attack 0.621 / def 1.200 | league avg home 1.312 / away 1.357 • Poisson stance: Pacific FC (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Pacific FC xG
Expected Goals
0.75
Vancouver FC xG
40%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Pacific FC vs Vancouver FC FAQs
What time does Pacific FC vs Vancouver FC kick off?
Pacific FC vs Vancouver FC kicked off at 23:00 UK time on Saturday 30 September 2023 at Starlight Stadium.
What was the final score in Pacific FC vs Vancouver FC?
Pacific FC 1 - 2 Vancouver FC.
Where is Pacific FC vs Vancouver FC being played?
The match is being played at Starlight Stadium.
What competition is Pacific FC vs Vancouver FC part of?
Pacific FC vs Vancouver FC is a Canadian Premier League fixture (matchday 12) (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Pacific FC vs Vancouver FC?
Our statistical model gives Pacific FC a 53% chance of winning, Vancouver FC a 20% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Pacific FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pacific FC vs Vancouver FC?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Pacific FC and Vancouver FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (60%).
Will Pacific FC vs Vancouver FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (63%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Pacific FC's attack at 0.91x the league average against Vancouver FC's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 1.43 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Vancouver FC's attack versus Pacific FC's defence, projects 0.75 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Pacific FC's last 54 games and Vancouver FC's last 26 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.7%), 0-0 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pacific FC Win
53%
1.89
28%
3.62
20%
5.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Pacific FC xG
Total xG
2.18
0.75
Vancouver FC xG
1.89
53%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
5.12
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.47
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
47%
2.12
24%
4.17
Win to Nil
25%
4.02
5%
21.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 8.5 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.1 | 12.1 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 8.7 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.5 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Pacific FC vs Vancouver FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Pacific FC vs Vancouver FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Pacific FC and Vancouver FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Pacific FC and 0.75 for Vancouver FC, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Pacific FC vs Vancouver FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Pacific FC's recent record stands at 11W 7D 8L from 26 games, a 1.54 PPG return, with W-D-D-W-L in the last five.
Vancouver FC, meanwhile, have gone 7W 5D 14L across 26 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-W-L-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Pacific FC by 0.54 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Vancouver FC heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Pacific FC have managed 5W 4D 4L from their last 13 home games — 1.46 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Vancouver FC's away record stands at 2W 2D 9L across their last 13 away games, a 0.62 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pacific FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Pacific FC are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Vancouver FC are on 0.96 scored and 1.81 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pacific FC have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 26 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pacific FC
Blended
Vancouver FC
Blended
Pacific FC (Home) vs Vancouver FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Pacific FC
Blended
Vancouver FC
Blended
❓ Pacific FC vs Vancouver FC Form FAQs
What form are Pacific FC and Vancouver FC in coming into this match?
Pacific FC have gone 11W 7D 8L in their last 26 games (1.54 PPG), while Vancouver FC have gone 7W 5D 14L in their last 26 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pacific FC at home or Vancouver FC away?
Pacific FC's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pacific FC at home: 1.46 PPG; Vancouver FC away: 0.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from August 2024. All of them came in Canadian Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 20 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 14 Sep 2024, when Pacific FC won Pacific FC 3-0 Vancouver FC.
Pacific FC's record when hosting Vancouver FC specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Pacific FC
5
Draws
3
Vancouver FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Pacific FC vs Vancouver FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Pacific FC and Vancouver FC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Pacific FC have won 2, Vancouver FC have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Pacific FC and Vancouver FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 September 2026: Pacific FC 1-1 Vancouver FC.
Who has won more matches between Pacific FC and Vancouver FC?
Vancouver FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pacific FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Vancouver FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pacific FC 54%, Vancouver FC 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Pacific FC) and 46% (Vancouver FC).
On the defensive side: Vancouver FC in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pacific FC home games / Vancouver FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Pacific FC vs Vancouver FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Pacific FC and Vancouver FC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Pacific FC's recent matches and 46% of Vancouver FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Pacific FC and Vancouver FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Pacific FC's recent games and 46% of Vancouver FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pacific FC and Vancouver FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Pacific FC's recent matches and 62% of Vancouver FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Vancouver FC defy the odds to beat Pacific FC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vancouver FC beat Pacific FC 1-2 at Starlight Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pacific FC 1.43 xG and Vancouver FC 0.75 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Vancouver FC outscored their 0.75 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pacific FC attack 0.91 / defence 0.89 against Vancouver FC attack 0.62 / defence 1.20, drawn from 54/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pacific FC 53% | Draw 28% | Vancouver FC 20%, with Pacific FC to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Vancouver FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pacific FC 46%, Vancouver FC 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pacific FC's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Vancouver FC's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Pacific FC arrived the stronger side — 1.54 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Vancouver FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Pacific FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Vancouver FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.62 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.