Pacific FC 1-0 FC Edmonton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Pacific FC (61%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Pacific FC face FC Edmonton.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Canadian Premier League clash, Regular Season - 12 as Pacific FC welcome FC Edmonton to Starlight Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 1 October 2022 at 03:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Canadian Premier League games this season, Pacific FC have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: L L D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Pacific FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pacific FC at Starlight Stadium this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
FC Edmonton — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Canadian Premier League fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC Edmonton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Edmonton's form when playing away from home: 0W 4D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Pacific FC carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Pacific FC register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, FC Edmonton in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Pacific FC: 4 wins from 8 previous clashes against 1 for FC Edmonton, with 3 draws across those contests.
The 8 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 Jul 2022, ended 3–2 with Pacific FC winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Pacific FC and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 3.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Pacific FC in-play and half-time data (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games).
FC Edmonton in-play and half-time data (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Pacific FC 59% and FC Edmonton 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pacific FC 61% | FC Edmonton 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pacific FC 2.09 xG and FC Edmonton 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pacific FC attack 1.130 / defence 1.058 | FC Edmonton attack 0.837 / defence 1.420. League average goals — home 1.300 / away 1.199. FC Edmonton bring a strong defensive rating of 1.420 — this is suppressing Pacific FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 53 Pacific FC games / 54 FC Edmonton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pacific FC 61% | Draw 21% | FC Edmonton 19%. Fair-value odds: Pacific FC 1.64 | Draw 4.76 | FC Edmonton 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Pacific FC (61%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Pacific FC as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.15 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Pacific FC 60% | FC Edmonton 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pacific FC vs FC Edmonton | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Starlight Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Oct 2022, 03:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pacific FC 61% | Draw 21% | FC Edmonton 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 57% | xG Pacific FC 2.09 / FC Edmonton 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Pacific FC attack 1.130 / def 1.058 | FC Edmonton attack 0.837 / def 1.420 | league avg home 1.300 / away 1.199 • Poisson stance: Pacific FC (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.09
Pacific FC xG
Expected Goals
1.06
FC Edmonton xG
57%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pacific FC vs FC Edmonton kick off?
Pacific FC vs FC Edmonton kicked off at 03:00 on Saturday 1 October 2022 at Starlight Stadium.
What was the final score in Pacific FC vs FC Edmonton?
Pacific FC 1 - 0 FC Edmonton.
Where is Pacific FC vs FC Edmonton being played?
The match is being played at Starlight Stadium.
What competition is Pacific FC vs FC Edmonton part of?
Pacific FC vs FC Edmonton is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Pacific FC vs FC Edmonton?
Our statistical model gives Pacific FC a 61% chance of winning, FC Edmonton a 19% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Pacific FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pacific FC vs FC Edmonton?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Pacific FC and FC Edmonton will score (BTTS).
Will Pacific FC vs FC Edmonton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pacific FC and FC Edmonton?
Record (8 meetings): Pacific FC 4W | Draws 3 | FC Edmonton 1W.
What form are Pacific FC and FC Edmonton in?
Pacific FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-D-D-W. FC Edmonton (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Pacific FC's attacking strength (1.13x league average) is weighed against FC Edmonton's defensive record (1.42x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.09. The same calculation in reverse, FC Edmonton's attack versus Pacific FC's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pacific FC Win
61%
1.64
21%
4.86
19%
5.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.09
Pacific FC xG
Total xG
3.15
1.06
FC Edmonton xG
1.64
61%
Home win
4.86
21%
Draw
5.39
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
35%
2.90
12%
8.05
Win to Nil
21%
4.75
2%
43.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.9 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pacific FC vs FC Edmonton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Pacific FC and FC Edmonton expected to score?
The model projects 2.09 expected goals for Pacific FC and 1.06 for FC Edmonton, a combined total of 3.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Pacific FC vs FC Edmonton?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Pacific FC come into this having played 54 games, going 25W 13D 16L for 1.63 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-D-W. The sample for Pacific FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC Edmonton sit at 0.83 PPG from 54 outings (9W 18D 27L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for FC Edmonton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pacific FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.80 PPG clear of FC Edmonton — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Pacific FC's home form reads 14W 7D 5L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.88 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Edmonton have taken 0.50 points per game from 26 outings (1W 10D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pacific FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Pacific FC are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; FC Edmonton are on 1.15 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Edmonton in 65%.
Last 54 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pacific FC
Blended
FC Edmonton
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pacific FC and FC Edmonton in coming into this match?
Pacific FC have gone 25W 13D 16L in their last 54 games (1.63 PPG), while FC Edmonton have gone 9W 18D 27L in their last 54 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pacific FC at home or FC Edmonton away?
Pacific FC's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pacific FC at home: 1.88 PPG; FC Edmonton away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Pacific FC have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Oct 2021, when Pacific FC won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Pacific FC's record when hosting FC Edmonton specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Pacific FC
3
Draws
1
FC Edmonton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pacific FC and FC Edmonton?
From 9 meetings on record, Pacific FC have won 5, FC Edmonton have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pacific FC and FC Edmonton last play each other?
They last met on 1 October 2022, when Pacific FC 1-0 FC Edmonton.
Who has won more matches between Pacific FC and FC Edmonton?
Pacific FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pacific FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
FC Edmonton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Pacific FC at 77%, FC Edmonton at 69%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 77% for Pacific FC and 54% for FC Edmonton. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Edmonton in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pacific FC home games / FC Edmonton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pacific FC play FC Edmonton?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 77% of Pacific FC's games and 69% of FC Edmonton's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pacific FC vs FC Edmonton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 77% of Pacific FC's matches and 54% of FC Edmonton's.
Do Pacific FC and FC Edmonton tend to score early?
Pacific FC have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, FC Edmonton in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Pacific FC edge out FC Edmonton 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pacific FC beat FC Edmonton 1-0 at Starlight Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pacific FC 2.09 xG and FC Edmonton 1.06 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Pacific FC fell 1.1 short of their projected output. FC Edmonton landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pacific FC attack 1.13 / defence 1.06 against FC Edmonton attack 0.84 / defence 1.42, drawn from 53/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pacific FC 61% | Draw 21% | FC Edmonton 19%, with Pacific FC to win its most likely call at 61%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pacific FC 61%, FC Edmonton 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pacific FC's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Edmonton's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Pacific FC arrived the stronger side — 1.63 PPG against 0.83. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Pacific FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line. FC Edmonton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.