Pacific FC 5-1 FC Edmonton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pacific FC at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pacific FC vs FC Edmonton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Canadian Premier League clash, Regular Season - 11 as Pacific FC welcome FC Edmonton to Starlight Stadium. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 27 October 2021 at 03:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Canadian Premier League games this season, Pacific FC have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Pacific FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pacific FC at Starlight Stadium this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Pacific FC are significantly better at Starlight Stadium than their overall form suggests.
FC Edmonton — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Canadian Premier League fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W D L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for FC Edmonton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Edmonton's form when playing away from home: 1W 5D 4L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Pacific FC) versus 1.00 (FC Edmonton). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Pacific FC register both teams scoring in 90% of relevant matches, FC Edmonton in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Pacific FC, 1 for FC Edmonton and 2 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 7 Oct 2021, ended 1–2 with FC Edmonton winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Pacific FC in-play and half-time data (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games).
FC Edmonton in-play and half-time data (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Pacific FC 64% and FC Edmonton 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pacific FC 64% | FC Edmonton 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pacific FC 1.79 xG and FC Edmonton 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pacific FC attack 1.353 / defence 1.319 | FC Edmonton attack 0.869 / defence 1.212. League average goals — home 1.089 / away 1.097. Pacific FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.353 — their λ of 1.79 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. FC Edmonton bring a strong defensive rating of 1.212 — this is suppressing Pacific FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 25 Pacific FC games / 25 FC Edmonton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pacific FC 47% | Draw 28% | FC Edmonton 25%. Fair-value odds: Pacific FC 2.13 | Draw 3.57 | FC Edmonton 4.00. Pacific FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.79 / 1.26) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Pacific FC as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pacific FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.04 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Pacific FC 90% | FC Edmonton 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pacific FC vs FC Edmonton | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Starlight Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 27 Oct 2021, 03:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pacific FC 47% | Draw 28% | FC Edmonton 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 62% | xG Pacific FC 1.79 / FC Edmonton 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Pacific FC attack 1.353 / def 1.319 | FC Edmonton attack 0.869 / def 1.212 | league avg home 1.089 / away 1.097 • Poisson stance: Pacific FC (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Pacific FC xG
Expected Goals
1.26
FC Edmonton xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pacific FC vs FC Edmonton kick off?
Pacific FC vs FC Edmonton kicked off at 03:30 on Wednesday 27 October 2021 at Starlight Stadium.
What was the final score in Pacific FC vs FC Edmonton?
Pacific FC 5 - 1 FC Edmonton.
Where is Pacific FC vs FC Edmonton being played?
The match is being played at Starlight Stadium.
What competition is Pacific FC vs FC Edmonton part of?
Pacific FC vs FC Edmonton is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Pacific FC vs FC Edmonton?
Our statistical model gives Pacific FC a 47% chance of winning, FC Edmonton a 25% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Pacific FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pacific FC vs FC Edmonton?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Pacific FC and FC Edmonton will score (BTTS).
Will Pacific FC vs FC Edmonton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pacific FC and FC Edmonton?
Record (4 meetings): Pacific FC 1W | Draws 2 | FC Edmonton 1W.
What form are Pacific FC and FC Edmonton in?
Pacific FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. FC Edmonton (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Pacific FC's attacking strength (1.35x league average) is weighed against FC Edmonton's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.79. The same calculation in reverse, FC Edmonton's attack versus Pacific FC's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Pacific FC Win
47%
2.11
28%
3.59
25%
4.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Pacific FC xG
Total xG
3.04
1.26
FC Edmonton xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
4.05
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.62
Clean Sheet
28%
3.52
17%
5.97
Win to Nil
13%
7.41
4%
24.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 6.0 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 10.7 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.6 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.7 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pacific FC vs FC Edmonton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Pacific FC and FC Edmonton expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Pacific FC and 1.26 for FC Edmonton, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Pacific FC vs FC Edmonton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Pacific FC come into this having played 25 games, going 12W 6D 7L for 1.68 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-L. The sample for Pacific FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC Edmonton sit at 0.96 PPG from 25 outings (5W 9D 11L), a run that reads D-W-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for FC Edmonton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pacific FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.72 PPG clear of FC Edmonton — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Pacific FC's home form reads 8W 2D 2L across 12 games on their own ground, a 2.17 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.68 PPG overall — Pacific FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, FC Edmonton have taken 0.75 points per game from 12 outings (1W 6D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pacific FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Pacific FC are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; FC Edmonton are on 1.16 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pacific FC have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; FC Edmonton in 60%.
Last 25 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pacific FC
Blended
FC Edmonton
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pacific FC and FC Edmonton in coming into this match?
Pacific FC have gone 12W 6D 7L in their last 25 games (1.68 PPG), while FC Edmonton have gone 5W 9D 11L in their last 25 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pacific FC at home or FC Edmonton away?
Pacific FC's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pacific FC at home: 2.17 PPG; FC Edmonton away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Pacific FC have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Oct 2021, when Pacific FC won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Pacific FC's record when hosting FC Edmonton specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Pacific FC
3
Draws
1
FC Edmonton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pacific FC and FC Edmonton?
From 9 meetings on record, Pacific FC have won 5, FC Edmonton have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pacific FC and FC Edmonton last play each other?
They last met on 1 October 2022, when Pacific FC 1-0 FC Edmonton.
Who has won more matches between Pacific FC and FC Edmonton?
Pacific FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pacific FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
FC Edmonton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Pacific FC at 75%, FC Edmonton at 58%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (Pacific FC) and 42% (FC Edmonton). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Edmonton in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pacific FC home games / FC Edmonton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pacific FC play FC Edmonton?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Pacific FC's games and 58% of FC Edmonton's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pacific FC vs FC Edmonton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Pacific FC's matches and 42% of FC Edmonton's.
Do Pacific FC and FC Edmonton tend to score early?
Pacific FC have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, FC Edmonton in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Pacific FC run riot with a 5-1 hammering of FC Edmonton.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pacific FC beat FC Edmonton 5-1 at Starlight Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pacific FC 1.79 xG and FC Edmonton 1.26 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Pacific FC beat their projection by 3.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pacific FC attack 1.35 / defence 1.32 against FC Edmonton attack 0.87 / defence 1.21, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pacific FC 47% | Draw 28% | FC Edmonton 25%, with Pacific FC to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pacific FC 64%, FC Edmonton 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pacific FC's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
FC Edmonton's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Pacific FC arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 0.96. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Pacific FC (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.25 average — above their attacking norm. FC Edmonton (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.