Pacific FC 1-1 Cavalry FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Pacific FC take on Cavalry FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Pacific FC host Cavalry FC at Starlight Stadium in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 23 April 2023 at 21:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Pacific FC — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W W L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Starlight Stadium, Pacific FC have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Across all Canadian Premier League games this season, Cavalry FC have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Cavalry FC's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Canadian Premier League this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Pacific FC at 1.20 PPG versus Cavalry FC's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Data
Pacific FC trading profile (59 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games).
Cavalry FC trading profile (59 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pacific FC 56% versus Cavalry FC 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pacific FC 56% | Cavalry FC 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pacific FC 1.21 xG and Cavalry FC 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pacific FC attack 1.006 / defence 0.849 | Cavalry FC attack 1.091 / defence 1.127. League average goals — home 1.063 / away 1.238. Data: 29 Pacific FC games / 29 Cavalry FC games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Pacific FC 34% | Draw 35% | Cavalry FC 31%. Fair-value odds: Pacific FC 2.94 | Draw 2.86 | Cavalry FC 3.23. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 31% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.35 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Pacific FC 50% | Cavalry FC 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (29 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Starlight Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Apr 2023, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pacific FC 34% | Draw 35% | Cavalry FC 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 51% | xG Pacific FC 1.21 / Cavalry FC 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Pacific FC attack 1.006 / def 0.849 | Cavalry FC attack 1.091 / def 1.127 | league avg home 1.063 / away 1.238 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Pacific FC xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Cavalry FC xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC kick off?
Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC kicked off at 21:00 on Sunday 23 April 2023 at Starlight Stadium.
What was the final score in Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC?
Pacific FC 1 - 1 Cavalry FC.
Where is Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC being played?
The match is being played at Starlight Stadium.
What competition is Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC part of?
Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC?
Our statistical model gives Pacific FC a 34% chance of winning, Cavalry FC a 31% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Pacific FC and Cavalry FC will score (BTTS).
Will Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pacific FC and Cavalry FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pacific FC and Cavalry FC in?
Pacific FC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-L-D. Cavalry FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Pacific FC's attack rating (1.01) and Cavalry FC's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.21 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cavalry FC's attack versus Pacific FC's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
34%
2.94
35%
2.87
31%
3.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Pacific FC xG
Total xG
2.35
1.15
Cavalry FC xG
2.94
34%
Home win
2.87
35%
Draw
3.21
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
30%
3.34
Win to Nil
11%
9.25
9%
10.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 10.9 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.2 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 7.9 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Pacific FC and Cavalry FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Pacific FC and 1.15 for Cavalry FC, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 59 outings, Pacific FC have picked up 1.61 PPG on a 27W 14D 18L record — W-W-L-L-D across the most recent five.
Cavalry FC's form line: 28W 14D 17L from 59 games, 1.66 PPG, last five L-W-W-D-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pacific FC on 1.61 PPG, Cavalry FC on 1.66. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Pacific FC have posted 1.86 PPG from 28 outings (15W 7D 6L).
On the road, Cavalry FC have gone 11W 8D 9L from 28 away games — 1.46 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pacific FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Pacific FC are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Cavalry FC are on 1.29 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pacific FC
Current Season
Cavalry FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pacific FC and Cavalry FC in coming into this match?
Pacific FC have gone 27W 14D 18L in their last 59 games (1.61 PPG), while Cavalry FC have gone 28W 14D 17L in their last 59 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pacific FC at home or Cavalry FC away?
Pacific FC's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pacific FC at home: 1.86 PPG; Cavalry FC away: 1.46 PPG.
Have Pacific FC or Cavalry FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pacific FC have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Cavalry FC in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Pacific FC and Cavalry FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Cavalry FC go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 May 2025, when Cavalry FC won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Pacific FC's record when hosting Cavalry FC specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Pacific FC
3
Draws
6
Cavalry FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pacific FC and Cavalry FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Pacific FC have won 1, Cavalry FC have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pacific FC and Cavalry FC last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Cavalry FC 3-0 Pacific FC.
Who has won more matches between Pacific FC and Cavalry FC?
Cavalry FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Pacific FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Cavalry FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pacific FC 71%, Cavalry FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Pacific FC and 50% for Cavalry FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cavalry FC in 32%; Cavalry FC in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pacific FC home games / Cavalry FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pacific FC play Cavalry FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Pacific FC's games and 50% of Cavalry FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Pacific FC's matches and 50% of Cavalry FC's.
Do Pacific FC and Cavalry FC tend to score early?
Pacific FC have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Cavalry FC in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pacific FC and Cavalry FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pacific FC and Cavalry FC finished level at 1-1 at Starlight Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pacific FC 1.21 xG and Cavalry FC 1.15 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pacific FC attack 1.01 / defence 0.85 against Cavalry FC attack 1.09 / defence 1.13, drawn from 29/29 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pacific FC 34% | Draw 35% | Cavalry FC 31%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pacific FC 56%, Cavalry FC 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pacific FC's trading profile (59 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Cavalry FC's trading profile (59 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pacific FC 1.61 PPG, Cavalry FC 1.66 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Pacific FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.