Pacific FC 1-2 Cavalry FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pacific FC at 45%, yet in-form Cavalry FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Pacific FC host Cavalry FC at Starlight Stadium in Canadian Premier League, Group Stage. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 5 April 2026 at 22:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Pacific FC — All Games: 0W 5D 5L from 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: L L D D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.70 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Starlight Stadium, Pacific FC have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Pacific FC are significantly better at Starlight Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Canadian Premier League games this season, Cavalry FC have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D W W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Cavalry FC's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Canadian Premier League this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Cavalry FC — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
Cavalry FC have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 8 encounters against Pacific FC's 1 victories.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Oct 2025, ended 3–3 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Cavalry FC have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 8 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Pacific FC trading profile (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Cavalry FC trading profile (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pacific FC 44% versus Cavalry FC 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pacific FC 46% | Cavalry FC 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pacific FC 1.78 xG and Cavalry FC 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pacific FC attack 0.973 / defence 1.098 | Cavalry FC attack 1.010 / defence 1.014. League average goals — home 1.809 / away 1.268. Data: 28 Pacific FC games / 28 Cavalry FC games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Pacific FC 45% | Draw 26% | Cavalry FC 29%. Fair-value odds: Pacific FC 2.22 | Draw 3.85 | Cavalry FC 3.45. Pacific FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.78 / 1.41) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Pacific FC at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Cavalry FC (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pacific FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.19 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Pacific FC 70% | Cavalry FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (28 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Group Stage | Venue: Starlight Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Apr 2026, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pacific FC 45% | Draw 26% | Cavalry FC 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 65% | xG Pacific FC 1.78 / Cavalry FC 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Pacific FC attack 0.973 / def 1.098 | Cavalry FC attack 1.010 / def 1.014 | league avg home 1.809 / away 1.268 • Poisson stance: Pacific FC (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Pacific FC xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Cavalry FC xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC kick off?
Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC kicked off at 22:00 on Sunday 5 April 2026 at Starlight Stadium.
What was the final score in Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC?
Pacific FC 1 - 2 Cavalry FC.
Where is Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC being played?
The match is being played at Starlight Stadium.
What competition is Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC part of?
Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC is a Group Stage fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC?
Our statistical model gives Pacific FC a 45% chance of winning, Cavalry FC a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Pacific FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Pacific FC and Cavalry FC will score (BTTS).
Will Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pacific FC and Cavalry FC?
Record (8 meetings): Pacific FC 1W | Draws 3 | Cavalry FC 4W.
What form are Pacific FC and Cavalry FC in?
Pacific FC (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.70 | L5 L-L-D-D-L. Cavalry FC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Pacific FC's attack rating (0.97) and Cavalry FC's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.78 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cavalry FC's attack versus Pacific FC's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Pacific FC Win
45%
2.23
26%
3.78
29%
3.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
7.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Pacific FC xG
Total xG
3.19
1.41
Cavalry FC xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
3.48
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.82
Clean Sheet
25%
4.08
17%
5.96
Win to Nil
11%
9.10
5%
20.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 5.8 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 10.3 | 7.3 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.2 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.5 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Pacific FC and Cavalry FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Pacific FC and 1.41 for Cavalry FC, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 57 outings, Pacific FC have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 14W 15D 28L record — L-L-D-D-L across the most recent five.
Cavalry FC's form line: 26W 19D 12L from 57 games, 1.70 PPG, last five D-D-W-W-L.
Put side by side, Cavalry FC are the form team by 0.70 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Pacific FC.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Pacific FC have posted 1.32 PPG from 28 outings (10W 7D 11L).
On the road, Cavalry FC have gone 12W 8D 8L from 28 away games — 1.57 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Pacific FC are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Cavalry FC are on 1.58 scored and 1.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cavalry FC in 61%.
Last 57 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pacific FC
Current Season
Cavalry FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pacific FC and Cavalry FC in coming into this match?
Pacific FC have gone 14W 15D 28L in their last 57 games (1.00 PPG), while Cavalry FC have gone 26W 19D 12L in their last 57 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pacific FC at home or Cavalry FC away?
Cavalry FC's away record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pacific FC at home: 1.32 PPG; Cavalry FC away: 1.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Pacific FC and Cavalry FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. They last met on 24 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Cavalry FC go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 May 2025, when Cavalry FC won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Pacific FC's record when hosting Cavalry FC specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Pacific FC
3
Draws
6
Cavalry FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pacific FC and Cavalry FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Pacific FC have won 1, Cavalry FC have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pacific FC and Cavalry FC last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Cavalry FC 3-0 Pacific FC.
Who has won more matches between Pacific FC and Cavalry FC?
Cavalry FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Pacific FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Cavalry FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pacific FC 43%, Cavalry FC 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Pacific FC) and 54% (Cavalry FC).
On the defensive side: Pacific FC keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Pacific FC have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pacific FC home games / Cavalry FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pacific FC play Cavalry FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Pacific FC's recent matches and 57% of Cavalry FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Pacific FC's recent games and 54% of Cavalry FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pacific FC and Cavalry FC tend to score early?
Pacific FC have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Cavalry FC in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cavalry FC defy the odds to beat Pacific FC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cavalry FC beat Pacific FC 1-2 at Starlight Stadium, Group Stage, in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pacific FC 1.78 xG and Cavalry FC 1.41 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pacific FC attack 0.97 / defence 1.10 against Cavalry FC attack 1.01 / defence 1.01, drawn from 28/28 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pacific FC 45% | Draw 26% | Cavalry FC 29%, with Pacific FC to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Cavalry FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pacific FC 46%, Cavalry FC 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pacific FC's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Cavalry FC's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Cavalry FC arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.