HFX Wanderers FC 3-1 Valour – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates HFX Wanderers FC at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as HFX Wanderers FC face Valour.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
HFX Wanderers FC and Valour meet at Wanderers Grounds in Canadian Premier League (matchday 7). This fixture gets under way on Friday 19 July 2024 at 00:00 UK time.
Form
HFX Wanderers FC (all games): 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
HFX Wanderers FC's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Valour's record over their last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Valour's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 1D 7L (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for HFX Wanderers FC against 1.00 for Valour. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from HFX Wanderers FC's last 10 home games and Valour's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 70% of HFX Wanderers FC's games and 70% of Valour's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for HFX Wanderers FC, 1 for Valour and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 20 May 2024, ended HFX Wanderers FC 1–2 Valour — a Valour win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
HFX Wanderers FC — key trading statistics (last 41 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Valour — key trading statistics (last 41 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — HFX Wanderers FC 61% versus Valour 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (HFX Wanderers FC 54% | Valour 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects HFX Wanderers FC 1.52 xG and Valour 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: HFX Wanderers FC attack 0.912 / defence 1.020 | Valour attack 0.861 / defence 1.193. League average goals — home 1.401 / away 1.239. Data: built from HFX Wanderers FC's last 40 games and Valour's last 41.
Result probabilities: HFX Wanderers FC 47% | Draw 27% | Valour 27%. Fair-value odds: HFX Wanderers FC 2.13 | Draw 3.77 | Valour 3.76. HFX Wanderers FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, HFX Wanderers FC are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on HFX Wanderers FC if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.61 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: HFX Wanderers FC 70% (last 10 home games) | Valour 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: HFX Wanderers FC vs Valour | Competition: Canadian Premier League, matchday 7 | Venue: Wanderers Grounds • Kick-off: Friday 19 July 2024 at 00:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: HFX Wanderers FC 47% | Draw 27% | Valour 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG HFX Wanderers FC 1.52 / Valour 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: HFX Wanderers FC attack 0.912 / def 1.020 | Valour attack 0.861 / def 1.193 | league avg home 1.401 / away 1.239 • Poisson stance: HFX Wanderers FC (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
HFX Wanderers FC xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Valour xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ HFX Wanderers FC vs Valour FAQs
What time does HFX Wanderers FC vs Valour kick off?
HFX Wanderers FC vs Valour kicked off at 00:00 UK time on Friday 19 July 2024 at Wanderers Grounds.
What was the final score in HFX Wanderers FC vs Valour?
HFX Wanderers FC 3 - 1 Valour.
Where is HFX Wanderers FC vs Valour being played?
The match is being played at Wanderers Grounds.
What competition is HFX Wanderers FC vs Valour part of?
HFX Wanderers FC vs Valour is a Canadian Premier League fixture (matchday 7) (Canada).
Who is favourite to win HFX Wanderers FC vs Valour?
Our statistical model gives HFX Wanderers FC a 47% chance of winning, Valour a 27% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making HFX Wanderers FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in HFX Wanderers FC vs Valour?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both HFX Wanderers FC and Valour will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will HFX Wanderers FC vs Valour have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
HFX Wanderers FC's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Valour's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.52. Flip it around — Valour's attack (0.86x) against HFX Wanderers FC's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from HFX Wanderers FC's last 40 games and Valour's last 41 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.6%), 2-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
HFX Wanderers FC Win
47%
2.13
27%
3.77
27%
3.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
HFX Wanderers FC xG
Total xG
2.61
1.09
Valour xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
3.76
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
22%
4.60
Win to Nil
16%
6.34
6%
17.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 8.0 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.2 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.3 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ HFX Wanderers FC vs Valour Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for HFX Wanderers FC vs Valour?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are HFX Wanderers FC and Valour expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for HFX Wanderers FC and 1.09 for Valour, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for HFX Wanderers FC vs Valour?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
HFX Wanderers FC come into this having played 41 games, going 13W 13D 15L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-W-L.
On the other side, Valour sit at 0.88 PPG from 41 outings (9W 9D 23L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.27 PPG for HFX Wanderers FC against 0.88 for Valour. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
HFX Wanderers FC's home form reads 10W 4D 7L across their last 21 home games, a 1.62 PPG return.
Away from home, Valour have taken 0.67 points per game from their last 21 away games (3W 5D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, HFX Wanderers FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
HFX Wanderers FC are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Valour are on 0.90 scored and 1.49 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: HFX Wanderers FC have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 41 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
HFX Wanderers FC
Blended
Valour
Blended
HFX Wanderers FC (Home) vs Valour (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
HFX Wanderers FC
Blended
Valour
Blended
❓ HFX Wanderers FC vs Valour Form FAQs
What form are HFX Wanderers FC and Valour in coming into this match?
HFX Wanderers FC have gone 13W 13D 15L in their last 41 games (1.27 PPG), while Valour have gone 9W 9D 23L in their last 41 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — HFX Wanderers FC at home or Valour away?
HFX Wanderers FC's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — HFX Wanderers FC at home: 1.62 PPG; Valour away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between HFX Wanderers FC and Valour, the earliest from August 2023. All of them came in Canadian Premier League. The most recent in our data was on 11 October 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
HFX Wanderers FC have won each of the latest 4 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: HFX Wanderers FC won HFX Wanderers FC 3-0 Valour on 26 Aug 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, HFX Wanderers FC have gone 4W 0D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Valour — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
HFX Wanderers FC
1
Draws
2
Valour
Recent Meetings
❓ HFX Wanderers FC vs Valour H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between HFX Wanderers FC and Valour?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, HFX Wanderers FC have won 7, Valour have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did HFX Wanderers FC and Valour last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 October 2025: Valour 0-3 HFX Wanderers FC.
Who has won more matches between HFX Wanderers FC and Valour?
HFX Wanderers FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
HFX Wanderers FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Valour see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — HFX Wanderers FC 62%, Valour 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (HFX Wanderers FC) and 48% (Valour). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 19% and 19% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Valour in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = HFX Wanderers FC home games / Valour away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ HFX Wanderers FC vs Valour Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in HFX Wanderers FC and Valour matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of HFX Wanderers FC's games and 57% of Valour's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are HFX Wanderers FC and Valour matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of HFX Wanderers FC's matches and 48% of Valour's.
Do HFX Wanderers FC and Valour matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of HFX Wanderers FC's recent matches and 57% of Valour's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
HFX Wanderers FC cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Valour.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
HFX Wanderers FC beat Valour 3-1 at Wanderers Grounds, Regular Season - 7, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting HFX Wanderers FC 1.52 xG and Valour 1.09 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. HFX Wanderers FC beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of HFX Wanderers FC attack 0.91 / defence 1.02 against Valour attack 0.86 / defence 1.19, drawn from 40/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it HFX Wanderers FC 47% | Draw 27% | Valour 27%, with HFX Wanderers FC to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (HFX Wanderers FC 54%, Valour 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
HFX Wanderers FC's trading profile (41 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Valour's trading profile (41 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — HFX Wanderers FC 1.27 PPG, Valour 0.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the HFX Wanderers FC win broke the near-deadlock. HFX Wanderers FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.48 average — above their attacking norm. Valour (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.