HFX Wanderers FC 1-0 Pacific FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates HFX Wanderers FC at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this HFX Wanderers FC vs Pacific FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Canadian Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Pacific FC travel to Wanderers Grounds to take on HFX Wanderers FC. The game is scheduled for Monday 11 October 2021, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Canadian Premier League games this season, HFX Wanderers FC have gone 4W 5D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: D W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for HFX Wanderers FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Wanderers Grounds, HFX Wanderers FC have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pacific FC stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Canadian Premier League matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D D L W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Pacific FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pacific FC away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: HFX Wanderers FC 1.70 PPG, Pacific FC 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
HFX Wanderers FC in-play and half-time data (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 25% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Pacific FC in-play and half-time data (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — HFX Wanderers FC 54% versus Pacific FC 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (HFX Wanderers FC 46% | Pacific FC 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects HFX Wanderers FC 1.26 xG and Pacific FC 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: HFX Wanderers FC attack 1.062 / defence 1.116 | Pacific FC attack 0.953 / defence 1.174. League average goals — home 1.013 / away 1.153. Data: 22 HFX Wanderers FC games / 22 Pacific FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: HFX Wanderers FC 35% | Draw 31% | Pacific FC 34%. Fair-value odds: HFX Wanderers FC 2.86 | Draw 3.23 | Pacific FC 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is HFX Wanderers FC at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on HFX Wanderers FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.49 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: HFX Wanderers FC 50% | Pacific FC 50%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: HFX Wanderers FC vs Pacific FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Wanderers Grounds • Kick-off: Monday 11 Oct 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: HFX Wanderers FC 35% | Draw 31% | Pacific FC 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 53% | xG HFX Wanderers FC 1.26 / Pacific FC 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: HFX Wanderers FC attack 1.062 / def 1.116 | Pacific FC attack 0.953 / def 1.174 | league avg home 1.013 / away 1.153 • Poisson stance: HFX Wanderers FC (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
HFX Wanderers FC xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Pacific FC xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does HFX Wanderers FC vs Pacific FC kick off?
HFX Wanderers FC vs Pacific FC kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 11 October 2021 at Wanderers Grounds.
What was the final score in HFX Wanderers FC vs Pacific FC?
HFX Wanderers FC 1 - 0 Pacific FC.
Where is HFX Wanderers FC vs Pacific FC being played?
The match is being played at Wanderers Grounds.
What competition is HFX Wanderers FC vs Pacific FC part of?
HFX Wanderers FC vs Pacific FC is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win HFX Wanderers FC vs Pacific FC?
Our statistical model gives HFX Wanderers FC a 35% chance of winning, Pacific FC a 34% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making HFX Wanderers FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in HFX Wanderers FC vs Pacific FC?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both HFX Wanderers FC and Pacific FC will score (BTTS).
Will HFX Wanderers FC vs Pacific FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between HFX Wanderers FC and Pacific FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are HFX Wanderers FC and Pacific FC in?
HFX Wanderers FC (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-D-L. Pacific FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates HFX Wanderers FC's attack at 1.06x the league average against Pacific FC's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.26 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Pacific FC's attack versus HFX Wanderers FC's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
HFX Wanderers FC Win
35%
2.82
31%
3.23
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
HFX Wanderers FC xG
Total xG
2.49
1.23
Pacific FC xG
2.82
35%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
28%
3.54
Win to Nil
10%
9.62
10%
10.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 10.2 | 6.2 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.9 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.1 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for HFX Wanderers FC vs Pacific FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are HFX Wanderers FC and Pacific FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for HFX Wanderers FC and 1.23 for Pacific FC, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for HFX Wanderers FC vs Pacific FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
HFX Wanderers FC come into this having played 22 games, going 7W 8D 7L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-D-L. The sample for HFX Wanderers FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Pacific FC sit at 1.77 PPG from 22 outings (11W 6D 5L), a run that reads D-D-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Pacific FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pacific FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.45 PPG clear of HFX Wanderers FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
HFX Wanderers FC's home form reads 6W 2D 3L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.82 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.32 PPG overall — HFX Wanderers FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Pacific FC have taken 1.45 points per game from 11 outings (4W 4D 3L).
The Goals Picture
HFX Wanderers FC are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Pacific FC are on 1.68 scored and 1.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pacific FC in 64%.
Last 22 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
HFX Wanderers FC
Blended
Pacific FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are HFX Wanderers FC and Pacific FC in coming into this match?
HFX Wanderers FC have gone 7W 8D 7L in their last 22 games (1.32 PPG), while Pacific FC have gone 11W 6D 5L in their last 22 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — HFX Wanderers FC at home or Pacific FC away?
HFX Wanderers FC's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — HFX Wanderers FC at home: 1.82 PPG; Pacific FC away: 1.45 PPG.
Have HFX Wanderers FC or Pacific FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
HFX Wanderers FC have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Pacific FC in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between HFX Wanderers FC and Pacific FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 5 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
HFX Wanderers FC have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Sep 2024, when Pacific FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
HFX Wanderers FC's record when hosting Pacific FC specifically: 3W 3D 0L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
HFX Wanderers FC
4
Draws
2
Pacific FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between HFX Wanderers FC and Pacific FC?
From 10 meetings on record, HFX Wanderers FC have won 4, Pacific FC have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did HFX Wanderers FC and Pacific FC last play each other?
They last met on 5 July 2026, when Pacific FC 1-2 HFX Wanderers FC.
Who has won more matches between HFX Wanderers FC and Pacific FC?
HFX Wanderers FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
HFX Wanderers FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 64% of the time.
Pacific FC see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — HFX Wanderers FC 54%, Pacific FC 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (HFX Wanderers FC) and 54% (Pacific FC).
On the defensive side: HFX Wanderers FC keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Pacific FC in 36%; Pacific FC in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = HFX Wanderers FC home games / Pacific FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when HFX Wanderers FC play Pacific FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of HFX Wanderers FC's recent matches and 54% of Pacific FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is HFX Wanderers FC vs Pacific FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of HFX Wanderers FC's recent games and 54% of Pacific FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do HFX Wanderers FC and Pacific FC tend to score early?
HFX Wanderers FC have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, Pacific FC in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as HFX Wanderers FC edge out Pacific FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
HFX Wanderers FC beat Pacific FC 1-0 at Wanderers Grounds, Regular Season - 10, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting HFX Wanderers FC 1.26 xG and Pacific FC 1.23 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Pacific FC landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of HFX Wanderers FC attack 1.06 / defence 1.12 against Pacific FC attack 0.95 / defence 1.17, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it HFX Wanderers FC 35% | Draw 31% | Pacific FC 34%, with HFX Wanderers FC to win its most likely call at 35%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (HFX Wanderers FC 46%, Pacific FC 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
HFX Wanderers FC's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Pacific FC's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Pacific FC arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.32. Form was overturned, with HFX Wanderers FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. HFX Wanderers FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line. Pacific FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.