HFX Wanderers FC 0-0 Cavalry FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cavalry FC at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this HFX Wanderers FC vs Cavalry FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cavalry FC make the trip to Wanderers Grounds to face HFX Wanderers FC in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Monday 5 September 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
HFX Wanderers FC (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Canadian Premier League fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for HFX Wanderers FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
HFX Wanderers FC's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Wanderers Grounds this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — HFX Wanderers FC are significantly better at Wanderers Grounds than their overall form suggests.
Cavalry FC's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Cavalry FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cavalry FC away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Cavalry FC are 0.60 PPG clear of HFX Wanderers FC in recent Canadian Premier League fixtures (1.30 vs 0.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading Data
HFX Wanderers FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Cavalry FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — HFX Wanderers FC 44% versus Cavalry FC 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (HFX Wanderers FC 46% | Cavalry FC 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects HFX Wanderers FC 1.41 xG and Cavalry FC 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: HFX Wanderers FC attack 0.875 / defence 1.099 | Cavalry FC attack 1.043 / defence 1.189. League average goals — home 1.359 / away 1.288. Data: 50 HFX Wanderers FC games / 50 Cavalry FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: HFX Wanderers FC 36% | Draw 25% | Cavalry FC 39%. Fair-value odds: HFX Wanderers FC 2.78 | Draw 4.00 | Cavalry FC 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Cavalry FC as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cavalry FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.89 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: HFX Wanderers FC 40% | Cavalry FC 50%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: HFX Wanderers FC vs Cavalry FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Wanderers Grounds • Kick-off: Monday 5 Sep 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: HFX Wanderers FC 36% | Draw 25% | Cavalry FC 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG HFX Wanderers FC 1.41 / Cavalry FC 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: HFX Wanderers FC attack 0.875 / def 1.099 | Cavalry FC attack 1.043 / def 1.189 | league avg home 1.359 / away 1.288 • Poisson stance: Cavalry FC (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
HFX Wanderers FC xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Cavalry FC xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does HFX Wanderers FC vs Cavalry FC kick off?
HFX Wanderers FC vs Cavalry FC kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 5 September 2022 at Wanderers Grounds.
What was the final score in HFX Wanderers FC vs Cavalry FC?
HFX Wanderers FC 0 - 0 Cavalry FC.
Where is HFX Wanderers FC vs Cavalry FC being played?
The match is being played at Wanderers Grounds.
What competition is HFX Wanderers FC vs Cavalry FC part of?
HFX Wanderers FC vs Cavalry FC is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win HFX Wanderers FC vs Cavalry FC?
Our statistical model gives HFX Wanderers FC a 36% chance of winning, Cavalry FC a 39% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Cavalry FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in HFX Wanderers FC vs Cavalry FC?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both HFX Wanderers FC and Cavalry FC will score (BTTS).
Will HFX Wanderers FC vs Cavalry FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between HFX Wanderers FC and Cavalry FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are HFX Wanderers FC and Cavalry FC in?
HFX Wanderers FC (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Cavalry FC (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates HFX Wanderers FC's attack at 0.88x the league average against Cavalry FC's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 1.41 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cavalry FC's attack (1.04x) against HFX Wanderers FC's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.48.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cavalry FC Win
36%
2.76
25%
4.03
39%
2.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
0 – 1
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
HFX Wanderers FC xG
Total xG
2.89
1.48
Cavalry FC xG
2.76
36%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
2.56
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
23%
4.38
24%
4.11
Win to Nil
8%
12.11
9%
10.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 8.2 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.6 | 8.6 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.2 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for HFX Wanderers FC vs Cavalry FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are HFX Wanderers FC and Cavalry FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for HFX Wanderers FC and 1.48 for Cavalry FC, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for HFX Wanderers FC vs Cavalry FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 50 outings, HFX Wanderers FC have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 15W 14D 21L record — L-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for HFX Wanderers FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cavalry FC's form line: 24W 12D 14L from 50 games, 1.68 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-W. The sample for Cavalry FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Cavalry FC are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against HFX Wanderers FC.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, HFX Wanderers FC have posted 1.62 PPG from 24 outings (11W 6D 7L). That's noticeably better than their 1.18 PPG overall — HFX Wanderers FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Cavalry FC have gone 10W 7D 7L from 24 away games — 1.54 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
HFX Wanderers FC are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Cavalry FC are on 1.32 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 50 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
HFX Wanderers FC
Blended
Cavalry FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are HFX Wanderers FC and Cavalry FC in coming into this match?
HFX Wanderers FC have gone 15W 14D 21L in their last 50 games (1.18 PPG), while Cavalry FC have gone 24W 12D 14L in their last 50 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — HFX Wanderers FC at home or Cavalry FC away?
HFX Wanderers FC's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — HFX Wanderers FC at home: 1.62 PPG; Cavalry FC away: 1.54 PPG.
Have HFX Wanderers FC or Cavalry FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
HFX Wanderers FC have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Cavalry FC in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 18 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cavalry FC won 0-3 on 10 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, HFX Wanderers FC have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Cavalry FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
HFX Wanderers FC
4
Draws
5
Cavalry FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between HFX Wanderers FC and Cavalry FC?
From 10 meetings on record, HFX Wanderers FC have won 1, Cavalry FC have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did HFX Wanderers FC and Cavalry FC last play each other?
They last met on 18 July 2026, when Cavalry FC 1-1 HFX Wanderers FC.
Who has won more matches between HFX Wanderers FC and Cavalry FC?
Cavalry FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
HFX Wanderers FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Cavalry FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — HFX Wanderers FC 46%, Cavalry FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (HFX Wanderers FC) and 50% (Cavalry FC).
On the defensive side: HFX Wanderers FC keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Cavalry FC in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = HFX Wanderers FC home games / Cavalry FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when HFX Wanderers FC play Cavalry FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of HFX Wanderers FC's recent matches and 50% of Cavalry FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is HFX Wanderers FC vs Cavalry FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of HFX Wanderers FC's recent games and 50% of Cavalry FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do HFX Wanderers FC and Cavalry FC tend to score early?
HFX Wanderers FC have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Cavalry FC in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at HFX Wanderers FC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
HFX Wanderers FC and Cavalry FC finished level at 0-0 at Wanderers Grounds, Regular Season - 10, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting HFX Wanderers FC 1.41 xG and Cavalry FC 1.48 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. HFX Wanderers FC fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Cavalry FC landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of HFX Wanderers FC attack 0.88 / defence 1.10 against Cavalry FC attack 1.04 / defence 1.19, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it HFX Wanderers FC 36% | Draw 25% | Cavalry FC 39%, with Cavalry FC to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (HFX Wanderers FC 46%, Cavalry FC 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
HFX Wanderers FC's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cavalry FC's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Cavalry FC arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. HFX Wanderers FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Cavalry FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.