Forge 2-0 York United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Forge at 43%, yet in-form York United provide a compelling counter-argument — this Forge vs York United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Canadian Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees York United travel to Tim Hortons Field to take on Forge. The game is scheduled for Saturday 1 October 2022, 22:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Canadian Premier League games this season, Forge have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L L W D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Forge, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Forge at Tim Hortons Field this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Forge are significantly better at Tim Hortons Field than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, York United stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Canadian Premier League matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for York United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
York United away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. York United's 1.90 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Forge's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Data
Forge trading profile (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
York United trading profile (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Forge 40% versus York United 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Forge 47% | York United 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Forge 1.49 xG and York United 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Forge attack 1.226 / defence 0.957 | York United attack 1.072 / defence 0.942. League average goals — home 1.286 / away 1.188. Data: 53 Forge games / 54 York United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Forge 43% | Draw 26% | York United 31%. Fair-value odds: Forge 2.33 | Draw 3.85 | York United 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Forge at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form York United (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Forge offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.71 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Forge 50% | York United 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Forge vs York United | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Tim Hortons Field • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Oct 2022, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Forge 43% | Draw 26% | York United 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Forge 1.49 / York United 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Forge attack 1.226 / def 0.957 | York United attack 1.072 / def 0.942 | league avg home 1.286 / away 1.188 • Poisson stance: Forge (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Forge xG
Expected Goals
1.22
York United xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Forge vs York United kick off?
Forge vs York United kicked off at 22:00 on Saturday 1 October 2022 at Tim Hortons Field.
What was the final score in Forge vs York United?
Forge 2 - 0 York United.
Where is Forge vs York United being played?
The match is being played at Tim Hortons Field.
What competition is Forge vs York United part of?
Forge vs York United is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Forge vs York United?
Our statistical model gives Forge a 43% chance of winning, York United a 31% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Forge the favourite.
Will both teams score in Forge vs York United?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Forge and York United will score (BTTS).
Will Forge vs York United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Forge and York United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Forge and York United in?
Forge (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-W-D-D. York United (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Forge's attack rating (1.23) and York United's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.49 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, York United's attack versus Forge's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Forge Win
43%
2.31
26%
3.92
31%
3.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Forge xG
Total xG
2.71
1.22
York United xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
3.21
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
30%
3.39
23%
4.41
Win to Nil
13%
7.82
7%
14.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 8.2 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.1 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.0 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Forge vs York United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Forge and York United expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Forge and 1.22 for York United, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Forge vs York United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 55 outings, Forge have picked up 1.71 PPG on a 29W 7D 19L record — L-L-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Forge is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
York United's form line: 17W 18D 20L from 55 games, 1.25 PPG, last five L-W-W-D-W. The sample for York United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Forge are the form team by 0.46 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against York United.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Forge have posted 1.78 PPG from 27 outings (15W 3D 9L).
On the road, York United have gone 8W 8D 11L from 27 away games — 1.19 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Forge come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Forge are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; York United are on 1.18 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Forge
Blended
York United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Forge and York United in coming into this match?
Forge have gone 29W 7D 19L in their last 55 games (1.71 PPG), while York United have gone 17W 18D 20L in their last 55 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Forge at home or York United away?
Forge's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Forge at home: 1.78 PPG; York United away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Forge or York United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Forge have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, York United in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Forge and York United runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Forge have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Apr 2024, when Forge won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Forge's record when hosting York United specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Forge
3
Draws
0
York United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Forge and York United?
From 10 meetings on record, Forge have won 7, York United have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Forge and York United last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when York United 1-3 Forge.
Who has won more matches between Forge and York United?
Forge have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Forge are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
York United see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Forge 44%, York United 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Forge) and 52% (York United).
On the defensive side: Forge have failed to score in 26% of games; York United in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Forge home games / York United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Forge play York United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Forge's recent matches and 56% of York United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Forge vs York United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Forge's recent games and 52% of York United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Forge and York United tend to score early?
Forge have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, York United in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Forge cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over York United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Forge beat York United 2-0 at Tim Hortons Field, Regular Season - 12, in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Forge 1.49 xG and York United 1.22 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. York United landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Forge attack 1.23 / defence 0.96 against York United attack 1.07 / defence 0.94, drawn from 53/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Forge 43% | Draw 26% | York United 31%, with Forge to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Forge 47%, York United 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Forge's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
York United's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Forge arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.25. That form edge translated into the three points. Forge (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line. York United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.