Forge 5-1 FC Edmonton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Forge at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Forge vs FC Edmonton encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Canadian Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees FC Edmonton travel to Tim Hortons Field to take on Forge. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 19 July 2022, 23:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Forge stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Canadian Premier League matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Forge, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Forge have posted 4W 2D 4L at Tim Hortons Field — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.40 lags behind their overall 1.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Tim Hortons Field this season.
Across all Canadian Premier League games this season, FC Edmonton have recorded 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC Edmonton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, FC Edmonton have gone 0W 4D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Forge have the edge — a 1.20 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Forge have won 3, FC Edmonton 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 Jun 2022, ended 4–3 with Forge winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Forge in-play and half-time data (42 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
FC Edmonton in-play and half-time data (42 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 95% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Forge 33% versus FC Edmonton 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Forge 45% | FC Edmonton 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Forge 1.72 xG and FC Edmonton 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Forge attack 1.016 / defence 0.773 | FC Edmonton attack 0.862 / defence 1.314. League average goals — home 1.287 / away 1.339. FC Edmonton bring a strong defensive rating of 1.314 — this is suppressing Forge's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Forge's defence rating of 0.773 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 40 Forge games / 43 FC Edmonton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Forge 57% | Draw 24% | FC Edmonton 19%. Fair-value odds: Forge 1.75 | Draw 4.17 | FC Edmonton 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Forge (57%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Forge as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.61 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. This conflicts with form data: Forge 40% | FC Edmonton 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Forge vs FC Edmonton | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Tim Hortons Field • Kick-off: Tuesday 19 Jul 2022, 23:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Forge 57% | Draw 24% | FC Edmonton 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 48% | xG Forge 1.72 / FC Edmonton 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Forge attack 1.016 / def 0.773 | FC Edmonton attack 0.862 / def 1.314 | league avg home 1.287 / away 1.339 • Poisson stance: Forge (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Forge xG
Expected Goals
0.89
FC Edmonton xG
48%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Forge vs FC Edmonton kick off?
Forge vs FC Edmonton kicked off at 23:45 on Tuesday 19 July 2022 at Tim Hortons Field.
What was the final score in Forge vs FC Edmonton?
Forge 5 - 1 FC Edmonton.
Where is Forge vs FC Edmonton being played?
The match is being played at Tim Hortons Field.
What competition is Forge vs FC Edmonton part of?
Forge vs FC Edmonton is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Forge vs FC Edmonton?
Our statistical model gives Forge a 57% chance of winning, FC Edmonton a 19% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Forge the favourite.
Will both teams score in Forge vs FC Edmonton?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Forge and FC Edmonton will score (BTTS).
Will Forge vs FC Edmonton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Forge and FC Edmonton?
Record (5 meetings): Forge 3W | Draws 0 | FC Edmonton 2W.
What form are Forge and FC Edmonton in?
Forge (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. FC Edmonton (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Forge's attack at 1.02x the league average against FC Edmonton's defence at 1.31x — combine the two and it projects 1.72 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC Edmonton's attack versus Forge's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 2-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Forge Win
57%
1.76
24%
4.21
19%
5.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Forge xG
Total xG
2.61
0.89
FC Edmonton xG
1.76
57%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
5.16
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.06
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
18%
5.57
Win to Nil
23%
4.29
3%
28.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 6.6 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.6 | 11.3 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.7 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Forge vs FC Edmonton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Forge and FC Edmonton expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Forge and 0.89 for FC Edmonton, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Forge vs FC Edmonton?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Forge's recent record stands at 23W 4D 15L from 42 games, a 1.74 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Forge is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Edmonton, meanwhile, have gone 8W 14D 20L across 42 games — 0.90 PPG, with L-W-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for FC Edmonton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Forge by 0.84 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC Edmonton heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Forge have managed 9W 3D 7L from 19 games — 1.58 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Edmonton's away record stands at 1W 7D 11L across 19 trips, a 0.53 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Forge come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Forge are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; FC Edmonton are on 1.21 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Edmonton in 64%.
Defensively: Forge have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Forge
Blended
FC Edmonton
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Forge and FC Edmonton in coming into this match?
Forge have gone 23W 4D 15L in their last 42 games (1.74 PPG), while FC Edmonton have gone 8W 14D 20L in their last 42 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Forge at home or FC Edmonton away?
Forge's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Forge at home: 1.58 PPG; FC Edmonton away: 0.53 PPG.
Have Forge or FC Edmonton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Forge have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, FC Edmonton in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 September 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Jul 2022, when Forge won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Forge's record when hosting FC Edmonton specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
4
Forge
1
Draws
2
FC Edmonton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Forge and FC Edmonton?
From 7 meetings on record, Forge have won 4, FC Edmonton have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Forge and FC Edmonton last play each other?
They last met on 25 September 2022, when FC Edmonton 1-1 Forge.
Who has won more matches between Forge and FC Edmonton?
Forge have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Forge are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
FC Edmonton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 95% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Forge 42%, FC Edmonton 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Forge) and 58% (FC Edmonton).
On the defensive side: Forge have failed to score in 32% of games; FC Edmonton in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Forge home games / FC Edmonton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Forge play FC Edmonton?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 42% of Forge's games and 68% of FC Edmonton's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Forge vs FC Edmonton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Forge's recent games and 58% of FC Edmonton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Forge and FC Edmonton tend to score early?
Forge have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, FC Edmonton in 95% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Forge run riot with a 5-1 hammering of FC Edmonton.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Forge beat FC Edmonton 5-1 at Tim Hortons Field, Regular Season - 7, in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Forge 1.72 xG and FC Edmonton 0.89 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Forge beat their projection by 3.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Forge attack 1.02 / defence 0.77 against FC Edmonton attack 0.86 / defence 1.31, drawn from 40/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Forge 57% | Draw 24% | FC Edmonton 19%, with Forge to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Forge 45%, FC Edmonton 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Forge's trading profile (42 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
FC Edmonton's trading profile (42 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Forge arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 0.90. That form edge translated into the three points. Forge (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.63 average — above their attacking norm. FC Edmonton (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.84 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.