Forge 1-2 Atlético Ottawa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Forge at 52% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Forge vs Atlético Ottawa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Canadian Premier League clash, Semi-finals as Forge welcome Atlético Ottawa to Tim Hortons Field. Kick-off is set for Sunday 26 October 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Canadian Premier League games this season, Forge have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: D W D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Forge's form when playing at home: 8W 2D 0L across 10 games at Tim Hortons Field this term (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tim Hortons Field. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Forge are significantly better at Tim Hortons Field than their overall form suggests.
Atlético Ottawa — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Canadian Premier League fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W D D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Atlético Ottawa away from home this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Forge at 1.80 PPG versus Atlético Ottawa's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Forge, 1 for Atlético Ottawa and 3 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Forge trading profile (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Atlético Ottawa trading profile (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 63% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Forge 48% versus Atlético Ottawa 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Forge 53% | Atlético Ottawa 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Forge 1.66 xG and Atlético Ottawa 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Forge attack 1.166 / defence 0.633 | Atlético Ottawa attack 1.158 / defence 0.794. League average goals — home 1.795 / away 1.267. Atlético Ottawa's defence strength of 0.794 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Forge's defence rating of 0.633 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 56 Forge games / 56 Atlético Ottawa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Forge 52% | Draw 29% | Atlético Ottawa 19%. Fair-value odds: Forge 1.92 | Draw 3.45 | Atlético Ottawa 5.26. Forge hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Forge as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Forge offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.59 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Forge 40% | Atlético Ottawa 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Forge vs Atlético Ottawa | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Semi-finals | Venue: Tim Hortons Field • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Oct 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Forge 52% | Draw 29% | Atlético Ottawa 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 51% | xG Forge 1.66 / Atlético Ottawa 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Forge attack 1.166 / def 0.633 | Atlético Ottawa attack 1.158 / def 0.794 | league avg home 1.795 / away 1.267 • Poisson stance: Forge (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Forge xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Atlético Ottawa xG
51%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Forge vs Atlético Ottawa kick off?
Forge vs Atlético Ottawa kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 26 October 2025 at Tim Hortons Field.
What was the final score in Forge vs Atlético Ottawa?
Forge 1 - 2 Atlético Ottawa.
Where is Forge vs Atlético Ottawa being played?
The match is being played at Tim Hortons Field.
What competition is Forge vs Atlético Ottawa part of?
Forge vs Atlético Ottawa is a Semi-finals fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Forge vs Atlético Ottawa?
Our statistical model gives Forge a 52% chance of winning, Atlético Ottawa a 19% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Forge the favourite.
Will both teams score in Forge vs Atlético Ottawa?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Forge and Atlético Ottawa will score (BTTS).
Will Forge vs Atlético Ottawa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Forge and Atlético Ottawa?
Record (7 meetings): Forge 3W | Draws 3 | Atlético Ottawa 1W.
What form are Forge and Atlético Ottawa in?
Forge (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-D-D-W. Atlético Ottawa (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Forge's attack at 1.17x the league average against Atlético Ottawa's defence at 0.79x — combine the two and it projects 1.66 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Atlético Ottawa's attack versus Forge's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.0%), 2-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Forge Win
52%
1.91
29%
3.47
19%
5.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Forge xG
Total xG
2.59
0.93
Atlético Ottawa xG
1.91
52%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
5.32
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
39%
2.53
19%
5.27
Win to Nil
21%
4.83
4%
28.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 7.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.5 | 11.6 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.6 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Forge vs Atlético Ottawa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Forge and Atlético Ottawa expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Forge and 0.93 for Atlético Ottawa, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Forge vs Atlético Ottawa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 58 outings, Forge have picked up 1.86 PPG on a 31W 15D 12L record — D-W-D-D-W across the most recent five.
Atlético Ottawa's form line: 26W 23D 9L from 58 games, 1.74 PPG, last five D-W-D-D-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Forge on 1.86 PPG, Atlético Ottawa on 1.74. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Forge have posted 2.28 PPG from 29 outings (20W 6D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.86 PPG overall — Forge are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Atlético Ottawa have gone 13W 10D 6L from 29 away games — 1.69 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Forge come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Forge are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Atlético Ottawa are on 1.69 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Defensively: Forge have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Forge
Current Season
Atlético Ottawa
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Forge and Atlético Ottawa in coming into this match?
Forge have gone 31W 15D 12L in their last 58 games (1.86 PPG), while Atlético Ottawa have gone 26W 23D 9L in their last 58 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Forge at home or Atlético Ottawa away?
Forge's home record (2.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Forge at home: 2.28 PPG; Atlético Ottawa away: 1.69 PPG.
Have Forge or Atlético Ottawa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Forge have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Atlético Ottawa in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. They last met on 24 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Aug 2024, when Forge won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Forge's record when hosting Atlético Ottawa specifically: 4W 1D 2L from 7 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Forge
3
Draws
3
Atlético Ottawa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Forge and Atlético Ottawa?
From 10 meetings on record, Forge have won 4, Atlético Ottawa have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Forge and Atlético Ottawa last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Atlético Ottawa 2-1 Forge.
Who has won more matches between Forge and Atlético Ottawa?
Forge have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Forge are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Atlético Ottawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Forge 45%, Atlético Ottawa 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Forge) and 45% (Atlético Ottawa).
On the defensive side: Forge keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Atlético Ottawa in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Forge home games / Atlético Ottawa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Forge play Atlético Ottawa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Forge's recent matches and 48% of Atlético Ottawa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Forge vs Atlético Ottawa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Forge's recent games and 45% of Atlético Ottawa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Forge and Atlético Ottawa tend to score early?
Forge have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Atlético Ottawa in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Atlético Ottawa defy the odds to beat Forge 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atlético Ottawa beat Forge 1-2 at Tim Hortons Field, Semi-finals, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Forge 1.66 xG and Atlético Ottawa 0.93 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Atlético Ottawa outscored their 0.93 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Forge attack 1.17 / defence 0.63 against Atlético Ottawa attack 1.16 / defence 0.79, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Forge 52% | Draw 29% | Atlético Ottawa 19%, with Forge to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Atlético Ottawa win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Forge 53%, Atlético Ottawa 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Forge's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Atlético Ottawa's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Forge 1.86 PPG, Atlético Ottawa 1.74 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Atlético Ottawa win broke the near-deadlock. Forge (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.97 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.72 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.