FC Edmonton 2-3 Cavalry FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Cavalry FC (35%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as FC Edmonton face Cavalry FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cavalry FC make the trip to Clarke Field to face FC Edmonton in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Thursday 30 September 2021 at 03:00 UTC.
Current Form
FC Edmonton's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FC Edmonton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Edmonton at Clarke Field this season: 3W 3D 3L from 9 home games — 1.33 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.78 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.33 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — FC Edmonton are significantly better at Clarke Field than their overall form suggests.
Cavalry FC have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cavalry FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cavalry FC's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Canadian Premier League this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Cavalry FC are 1.10 PPG clear of FC Edmonton in recent Canadian Premier League fixtures (1.80 vs 0.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: FC Edmonton 0W, Cavalry FC 2W, 1D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Sep 2021, ended 0–1 with Cavalry FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
FC Edmonton half-time and goal-timing data (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Cavalry FC half-time and goal-timing data (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Edmonton 47% versus Cavalry FC 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Edmonton 42% | Cavalry FC 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Edmonton 0.98 xG and Cavalry FC 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Edmonton attack 0.820 / defence 1.023 | Cavalry FC attack 0.917 / defence 1.158. League average goals — home 1.035 / away 1.082. Data: 19 FC Edmonton games / 19 Cavalry FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Edmonton 34% | Draw 31% | Cavalry FC 35%. Fair-value odds: FC Edmonton 2.94 | Draw 3.23 | Cavalry FC 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cavalry FC are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cavalry FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.00 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: FC Edmonton 44% | Cavalry FC 60%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Edmonton vs Cavalry FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Clarke Field • Kick-off: Thursday 30 Sep 2021, 03:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Edmonton 34% | Draw 31% | Cavalry FC 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 40% | xG FC Edmonton 0.98 / Cavalry FC 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: FC Edmonton attack 0.820 / def 1.023 | Cavalry FC attack 0.917 / def 1.158 | league avg home 1.035 / away 1.082 • Poisson stance: Cavalry FC (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
FC Edmonton xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Cavalry FC xG
40%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Edmonton vs Cavalry FC kick off?
FC Edmonton vs Cavalry FC kicked off at 03:00 on Thursday 30 September 2021 at Clarke Field.
What was the final score in FC Edmonton vs Cavalry FC?
FC Edmonton 2 - 3 Cavalry FC.
Where is FC Edmonton vs Cavalry FC being played?
The match is being played at Clarke Field.
What competition is FC Edmonton vs Cavalry FC part of?
FC Edmonton vs Cavalry FC is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win FC Edmonton vs Cavalry FC?
Our statistical model gives FC Edmonton a 34% chance of winning, Cavalry FC a 35% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Cavalry FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Edmonton vs Cavalry FC?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both FC Edmonton and Cavalry FC will score (BTTS).
Will FC Edmonton vs Cavalry FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Edmonton and Cavalry FC?
Record (3 meetings): FC Edmonton 0W | Draws 1 | Cavalry FC 2W.
What form are FC Edmonton and Cavalry FC in?
FC Edmonton (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. Cavalry FC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from FC Edmonton's attack rating (0.82) and Cavalry FC's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 0.98 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Cavalry FC's attack (0.92x) against FC Edmonton's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 0-1 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cavalry FC Win
34%
2.96
31%
3.24
35%
2.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.6%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
FC Edmonton xG
Total xG
2.00
1.01
Cavalry FC xG
2.96
34%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
2.83
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.51
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
37%
2.67
Win to Nil
12%
8.17
13%
7.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.6 | 13.8 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 13.5 | 6.9 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Edmonton vs Cavalry FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are FC Edmonton and Cavalry FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for FC Edmonton and 1.01 for Cavalry FC, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Edmonton vs Cavalry FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 19 outings, FC Edmonton have picked up 0.95 PPG on a 4W 6D 9L record — L-L-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for FC Edmonton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cavalry FC's form line: 9W 5D 5L from 19 games, 1.68 PPG, last five W-W-L-D-L. The sample for Cavalry FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Cavalry FC are the form team by 0.73 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC Edmonton.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, FC Edmonton have posted 1.33 PPG from 9 outings (3W 3D 3L).
On the road, Cavalry FC have gone 5W 1D 3L from 9 away games — 1.78 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cavalry FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FC Edmonton are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Cavalry FC are on 1.16 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Last 19 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Edmonton
Blended
Cavalry FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Edmonton and Cavalry FC in coming into this match?
FC Edmonton have gone 4W 6D 9L in their last 19 games (0.95 PPG), while Cavalry FC have gone 9W 5D 5L in their last 19 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Edmonton at home or Cavalry FC away?
Cavalry FC's away record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Edmonton at home: 1.33 PPG; Cavalry FC away: 1.78 PPG.
Have FC Edmonton or Cavalry FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Edmonton have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Cavalry FC in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 September 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Cavalry FC have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cavalry FC won 0-3 on 7 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Edmonton have gone 0W 0D 4L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Cavalry FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
0
FC Edmonton
2
Draws
7
Cavalry FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Edmonton and Cavalry FC?
From 9 meetings on record, FC Edmonton have won 0, Cavalry FC have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Edmonton and Cavalry FC last play each other?
They last met on 17 September 2022, when FC Edmonton 0-1 Cavalry FC.
Who has won more matches between FC Edmonton and Cavalry FC?
Cavalry FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC Edmonton see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Cavalry FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Edmonton 44%, Cavalry FC 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 22% (FC Edmonton) and 56% (Cavalry FC).
On the defensive side: FC Edmonton keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; FC Edmonton have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Edmonton home games / Cavalry FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Edmonton play Cavalry FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of FC Edmonton's games and 67% of Cavalry FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Edmonton vs Cavalry FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 22% of FC Edmonton's recent games and 56% of Cavalry FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Edmonton and Cavalry FC tend to score early?
FC Edmonton have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Cavalry FC in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cavalry FC edge out FC Edmonton 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cavalry FC beat FC Edmonton 2-3 at Clarke Field, Regular Season - 9, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Edmonton 0.98 xG and Cavalry FC 1.01 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. FC Edmonton beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Cavalry FC outscored their 1.01 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Edmonton attack 0.82 / defence 1.02 against Cavalry FC attack 0.92 / defence 1.16, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Edmonton 34% | Draw 31% | Cavalry FC 35%, with Cavalry FC to win its most likely call at 35%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Edmonton 42%, Cavalry FC 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Edmonton's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Cavalry FC's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Cavalry FC arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 0.95. Form held, and they took the win. FC Edmonton (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cavalry FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.22 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.