Cavalry FC 2-1 York United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates York United at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cavalry FC vs York United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
ATCO Field plays host to Cavalry FC versus York United in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Friday 15 October 2021 at 02:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cavalry FC have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D L W D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cavalry FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cavalry FC have posted 3W 4D 2L at ATCO Field — 1.44 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
York United's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 3W 6D 1L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W D W D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for York United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Canadian Premier League this season, York United have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Cavalry FC, 1.50 for York United — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
Cavalry FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (22 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
York United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (22 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cavalry FC 54% versus York United 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cavalry FC 46% | York United 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cavalry FC 1.21 xG and York United 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cavalry FC attack 0.795 / defence 1.087 | York United attack 1.011 / defence 1.437. League average goals — home 1.058 / away 1.185. Cavalry FC's attack strength of 0.795 is below the league average — the 1.21 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. York United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.437 — this is suppressing Cavalry FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Cavalry FC games / 22 York United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cavalry FC 33% | Draw 29% | York United 38%. Fair-value odds: Cavalry FC 3.03 | Draw 3.45 | York United 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, York United are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on York United if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.51 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral: Cavalry FC 44% | York United 60%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cavalry FC vs York United | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: ATCO Field • Kick-off: Friday 15 Oct 2021, 02:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cavalry FC 33% | Draw 29% | York United 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG Cavalry FC 1.21 / York United 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Cavalry FC attack 0.795 / def 1.087 | York United attack 1.011 / def 1.437 | league avg home 1.058 / away 1.185 • Poisson stance: York United (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Cavalry FC xG
Expected Goals
1.30
York United xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cavalry FC vs York United kick off?
Cavalry FC vs York United kicked off at 02:00 on Friday 15 October 2021 at ATCO Field.
What was the final score in Cavalry FC vs York United?
Cavalry FC 2 - 1 York United.
Where is Cavalry FC vs York United being played?
The match is being played at ATCO Field.
What competition is Cavalry FC vs York United part of?
Cavalry FC vs York United is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Cavalry FC vs York United?
Our statistical model gives Cavalry FC a 33% chance of winning, York United a 38% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making York United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cavalry FC vs York United?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Cavalry FC and York United will score (BTTS).
Will Cavalry FC vs York United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cavalry FC and York United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cavalry FC and York United in?
Cavalry FC (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-D-D. York United (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Cavalry FC's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against York United's defensive record (1.44x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.21. Flip it around — York United's attack (1.01x) against Cavalry FC's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.8%), 0-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
York United Win
33%
2.99
29%
3.47
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Cavalry FC xG
Total xG
2.51
1.30
York United xG
2.99
33%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
27%
3.68
30%
3.35
Win to Nil
9%
11.01
11%
8.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 10.6 | 6.9 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.8 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.7 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cavalry FC vs York United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Cavalry FC and York United expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Cavalry FC and 1.30 for York United, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Cavalry FC vs York United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 22 outings, Cavalry FC have picked up 1.68 PPG on a 10W 7D 5L record — D-L-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Cavalry FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
York United's form line: 7W 10D 5L from 22 games, 1.41 PPG, last five W-D-W-D-D. The sample for York United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.68 PPG for Cavalry FC against 1.41 for York United. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Cavalry FC have posted 1.44 PPG from 9 outings (3W 4D 2L).
On the road, York United have gone 3W 3D 3L from 9 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cavalry FC are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; York United are on 1.27 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 22 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cavalry FC
Blended
York United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cavalry FC and York United in coming into this match?
Cavalry FC have gone 10W 7D 5L in their last 22 games (1.68 PPG), while York United have gone 7W 10D 5L in their last 22 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cavalry FC at home or York United away?
Cavalry FC's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cavalry FC at home: 1.44 PPG; York United away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Cavalry FC or York United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cavalry FC have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, York United in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Cavalry FC go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cavalry FC won 5-0 on 2 Aug 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cavalry FC have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against York United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Cavalry FC
1
Draws
2
York United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cavalry FC and York United?
From 10 meetings on record, Cavalry FC have won 7, York United have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cavalry FC and York United last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when Cavalry FC 5-0 York United.
Who has won more matches between Cavalry FC and York United?
Cavalry FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cavalry FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
York United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cavalry FC 44%, York United 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Cavalry FC) and 67% (York United).
On the defensive side: Cavalry FC keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Cavalry FC have failed to score in 44% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cavalry FC home games / York United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cavalry FC play York United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Cavalry FC's recent matches and 56% of York United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cavalry FC vs York United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Cavalry FC's recent games and 67% of York United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cavalry FC and York United tend to score early?
Cavalry FC have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, York United in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cavalry FC defy the odds to beat York United 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cavalry FC beat York United 2-1 at ATCO Field, Regular Season - 10, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cavalry FC 1.21 xG and York United 1.30 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cavalry FC attack 0.80 / defence 1.09 against York United attack 1.01 / defence 1.44, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cavalry FC 33% | Draw 29% | York United 38%, with York United to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Cavalry FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cavalry FC 46%, York United 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cavalry FC's trading profile (22 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
York United's trading profile (22 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cavalry FC 1.68 PPG, York United 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cavalry FC win broke the near-deadlock. Cavalry FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.