Cavalry FC 1-1 FC Edmonton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Cavalry FC (35%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Cavalry FC face FC Edmonton.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC Edmonton make the trip to ATCO Field to face Cavalry FC in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Saturday 9 October 2021 at 21:00 UTC.
Current Form
Cavalry FC's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L D L W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cavalry FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cavalry FC at ATCO Field this season: 3W 3D 2L from 8 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 8 games (38%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
FC Edmonton have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC Edmonton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Edmonton's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Canadian Premier League this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Cavalry FC. A 0.70 PPG lead over FC Edmonton (1.60 vs 0.90) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
Across 4 previous meetings, Cavalry FC are the stronger side on paper — 3 victories to 0, with 1 draws in between.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 30 Sep 2021, ended 3–2 with Cavalry FC winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Cavalry FC and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 3.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
Cavalry FC half-time and goal-timing data (21 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
FC Edmonton half-time and goal-timing data (21 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cavalry FC 52% versus FC Edmonton 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cavalry FC 48% | FC Edmonton 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cavalry FC 1.10 xG and FC Edmonton 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cavalry FC attack 0.815 / defence 1.102 | FC Edmonton attack 0.818 / defence 1.324. League average goals — home 1.016 / away 1.154. FC Edmonton bring a strong defensive rating of 1.324 — this is suppressing Cavalry FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 21 Cavalry FC games / 22 FC Edmonton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cavalry FC 35% | Draw 33% | FC Edmonton 32%. Fair-value odds: Cavalry FC 2.86 | Draw 3.03 | FC Edmonton 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cavalry FC are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cavalry FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.14 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cavalry FC 38% | FC Edmonton 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cavalry FC vs FC Edmonton | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: ATCO Field • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Oct 2021, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cavalry FC 35% | Draw 33% | FC Edmonton 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 45% | xG Cavalry FC 1.10 / FC Edmonton 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Cavalry FC attack 0.815 / def 1.102 | FC Edmonton attack 0.818 / def 1.324 | league avg home 1.016 / away 1.154 • Poisson stance: Cavalry FC (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Cavalry FC xG
Expected Goals
1.04
FC Edmonton xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cavalry FC vs FC Edmonton kick off?
Cavalry FC vs FC Edmonton kicked off at 21:00 on Saturday 9 October 2021 at ATCO Field.
What was the final score in Cavalry FC vs FC Edmonton?
Cavalry FC 1 - 1 FC Edmonton.
Where is Cavalry FC vs FC Edmonton being played?
The match is being played at ATCO Field.
What competition is Cavalry FC vs FC Edmonton part of?
Cavalry FC vs FC Edmonton is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Cavalry FC vs FC Edmonton?
Our statistical model gives Cavalry FC a 35% chance of winning, FC Edmonton a 32% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Cavalry FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cavalry FC vs FC Edmonton?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Cavalry FC and FC Edmonton will score (BTTS).
Will Cavalry FC vs FC Edmonton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cavalry FC and FC Edmonton?
Record (4 meetings): Cavalry FC 3W | Draws 1 | FC Edmonton 0W.
What form are Cavalry FC and FC Edmonton in?
Cavalry FC (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-W-D. FC Edmonton (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Cavalry FC's attack at 0.81x the league average against FC Edmonton's defence at 1.32x — combine the two and it projects 1.10 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC Edmonton's attack (0.82x) against Cavalry FC's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 21/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cavalry FC Win
35%
2.85
33%
3.06
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Cavalry FC xG
Total xG
2.14
1.04
FC Edmonton xG
2.85
35%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
33%
2.99
Win to Nil
12%
8.08
11%
9.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 12.3 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.5 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 7.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cavalry FC vs FC Edmonton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Cavalry FC and FC Edmonton expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Cavalry FC and 1.04 for FC Edmonton, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Cavalry FC vs FC Edmonton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Cavalry FC come into this having played 21 games, going 10W 6D 5L for 1.71 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-D. The sample for Cavalry FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC Edmonton sit at 1.05 PPG from 21 outings (5W 7D 9L), a run that reads D-L-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for FC Edmonton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cavalry FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.66 PPG clear of FC Edmonton — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Cavalry FC's home form reads 3W 3D 2L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Edmonton have taken 0.75 points per game from 8 outings (1W 3D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cavalry FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Cavalry FC are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; FC Edmonton are on 1.14 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 21 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cavalry FC
Blended
FC Edmonton
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cavalry FC and FC Edmonton in coming into this match?
Cavalry FC have gone 10W 6D 5L in their last 21 games (1.71 PPG), while FC Edmonton have gone 5W 7D 9L in their last 21 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cavalry FC at home or FC Edmonton away?
Cavalry FC's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cavalry FC at home: 1.50 PPG; FC Edmonton away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Cavalry FC or FC Edmonton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cavalry FC have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, FC Edmonton in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 September 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Cavalry FC have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cavalry FC won 0-3 on 7 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cavalry FC have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC Edmonton — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
7
Cavalry FC
2
Draws
0
FC Edmonton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cavalry FC and FC Edmonton?
From 9 meetings on record, Cavalry FC have won 7, FC Edmonton have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cavalry FC and FC Edmonton last play each other?
They last met on 17 September 2022, when FC Edmonton 0-1 Cavalry FC.
Who has won more matches between Cavalry FC and FC Edmonton?
Cavalry FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cavalry FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
FC Edmonton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cavalry FC 38%, FC Edmonton 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Cavalry FC) and 62% (FC Edmonton).
On the defensive side: Cavalry FC keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Cavalry FC have failed to score in 50% of games; FC Edmonton in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cavalry FC home games / FC Edmonton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cavalry FC play FC Edmonton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Cavalry FC's recent matches and 50% of FC Edmonton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cavalry FC vs FC Edmonton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Cavalry FC's recent games and 62% of FC Edmonton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cavalry FC and FC Edmonton tend to score early?
Cavalry FC have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, FC Edmonton in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cavalry FC and FC Edmonton share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cavalry FC and FC Edmonton finished level at 1-1 at ATCO Field, Regular Season - 10, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cavalry FC 1.10 xG and FC Edmonton 1.04 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cavalry FC attack 0.81 / defence 1.10 against FC Edmonton attack 0.82 / defence 1.32, drawn from 21/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cavalry FC 35% | Draw 33% | FC Edmonton 32%, with Cavalry FC to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cavalry FC 48%, FC Edmonton 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cavalry FC's trading profile (21 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
FC Edmonton's trading profile (21 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Cavalry FC arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.05. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.