Cavalry FC 2-1 FC Edmonton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Cavalry FC take on FC Edmonton.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC Edmonton make the trip to ATCO Field to face Cavalry FC in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Wednesday 4 August 2021 at 02:00 UTC.
Current Form
Cavalry FC's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 4W 2D 3L from 9 games (1.56 PPG). Last five: L D W W L. They are averaging 1.11 goals per game and conceding 1.11 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Cavalry FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cavalry FC at ATCO Field this season: 1W 1D 2L from 4 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.56 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at ATCO Field this season.
FC Edmonton have collected 1.22 PPG across 9 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 3W 2D 4L. Last five: L D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.89 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FC Edmonton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Edmonton's away record: 0W 1D 3L from 4 road trips in Canadian Premier League this season (0.25 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.25 is notably below their overall 1.22 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.56 PPG for Cavalry FC against 1.22 for FC Edmonton. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading
Cavalry FC half-time and goal-timing data (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 56% of games.
FC Edmonton half-time and goal-timing data (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cavalry FC 44% versus FC Edmonton 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cavalry FC 44% | FC Edmonton 22%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cavalry FC 0.84 xG and FC Edmonton 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cavalry FC attack 0.682 / defence 1.344 | FC Edmonton attack 0.691 / defence 1.254. League average goals — home 0.987 / away 0.855. Cavalry FC's attack strength of 0.682 is below the league average — the 0.84 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. FC Edmonton bring a strong defensive rating of 1.254 — this is suppressing Cavalry FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 9 Cavalry FC games / 9 FC Edmonton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cavalry FC 34% | Draw 35% | FC Edmonton 31%. Fair-value odds: Cavalry FC 2.94 | Draw 2.86 | FC Edmonton 3.23. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 23% | BTTS probability 31% | Total xG 1.64. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 77% probability — total xG of 1.64 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 69% — FC Edmonton's lower xG of 0.79 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 31%.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 31% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.64 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 23% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 31% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cavalry FC 25% | FC Edmonton 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cavalry FC vs FC Edmonton | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: ATCO Field • Kick-off: Wednesday 4 Aug 2021, 02:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cavalry FC 34% | Draw 35% | FC Edmonton 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 23% | BTTS 31% | xG Cavalry FC 0.84 / FC Edmonton 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Cavalry FC attack 0.682 / def 1.344 | FC Edmonton attack 0.691 / def 1.254 | league avg home 0.987 / away 0.855 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
Cavalry FC xG
Expected Goals
0.79
FC Edmonton xG
31%
BTTS
49%
Over 1.5
23%
Over 2.5
8%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cavalry FC vs FC Edmonton kick off?
Cavalry FC vs FC Edmonton kicked off at 02:00 on Wednesday 4 August 2021 at ATCO Field.
What was the final score in Cavalry FC vs FC Edmonton?
Cavalry FC 2 - 1 FC Edmonton.
Where is Cavalry FC vs FC Edmonton being played?
The match is being played at ATCO Field.
What competition is Cavalry FC vs FC Edmonton part of?
Cavalry FC vs FC Edmonton is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Cavalry FC vs FC Edmonton?
Our statistical model gives Cavalry FC a 34% chance of winning, FC Edmonton a 31% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Cavalry FC vs FC Edmonton?
Our model estimates a 31% probability that both Cavalry FC and FC Edmonton will score (BTTS).
Will Cavalry FC vs FC Edmonton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 23%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cavalry FC and FC Edmonton?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cavalry FC and FC Edmonton in?
Cavalry FC (all comps): 4W-2D-3L in 9 | 1.56 PPG | GF 1.11 / GA 1.11 | L5 L-D-W-W-L. FC Edmonton (all comps): 3W-2D-4L in 9 | 1.22 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.89 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Cavalry FC's attack at 0.68x the league average against FC Edmonton's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 0.84 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC Edmonton's attack (0.69x) against Cavalry FC's defence (1.34x) — and the away total comes out at 0.79.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 21.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.7%), 1-0 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
34%
2.94
35%
2.87
31%
3.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
19.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
16.4%
Home win
0 – 1
15.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
Cavalry FC xG
Total xG
1.64
0.79
FC Edmonton xG
2.94
34%
Home win
2.87
35%
Draw
3.21
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
49%
Over 1.5
2.04
51%
Under 1.5
1.96
23%
Over 2.5
4.35
77%
Under 2.5
1.30
8%
Over 3.5
12.50
92%
Under 3.5
1.09
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
31%
BTTS Yes
3.20
69%
BTTS No
1.45
Clean Sheet
45%
2.21
43%
2.33
Win to Nil
15%
6.50
13%
7.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19.4 | 15.4 | 6.1 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 16.4 | 13.0 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 6.9 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cavalry FC vs FC Edmonton?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 21.1%.
How many goals are Cavalry FC and FC Edmonton expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Cavalry FC and 0.79 for FC Edmonton, a combined total of 1.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Cavalry FC vs FC Edmonton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Cavalry FC come into this having played 9 games, going 4W 2D 3L for 1.56 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-W-L. The sample for Cavalry FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC Edmonton sit at 1.22 PPG from 9 outings (3W 2D 4L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for FC Edmonton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.56 PPG for Cavalry FC against 1.22 for FC Edmonton. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Cavalry FC's home form reads 1W 1D 2L across 4 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return. That actually lags their 1.56 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, FC Edmonton have taken 0.25 points per game from 4 outings (0W 1D 3L). That's a step down from their 1.22 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC Edmonton's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cavalry FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Cavalry FC are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; FC Edmonton are on 1.00 scored and 0.89 conceded.
Last 9 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cavalry FC
Blended
FC Edmonton
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cavalry FC and FC Edmonton in coming into this match?
Cavalry FC have gone 4W 2D 3L in their last 9 games (1.56 PPG), while FC Edmonton have gone 3W 2D 4L in their last 9 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cavalry FC at home or FC Edmonton away?
Cavalry FC's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cavalry FC at home: 1.00 PPG; FC Edmonton away: 0.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 September 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Cavalry FC have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cavalry FC won 0-3 on 7 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cavalry FC have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC Edmonton — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
7
Cavalry FC
2
Draws
0
FC Edmonton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cavalry FC and FC Edmonton?
From 9 meetings on record, Cavalry FC have won 7, FC Edmonton have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cavalry FC and FC Edmonton last play each other?
They last met on 17 September 2022, when FC Edmonton 0-1 Cavalry FC.
Who has won more matches between Cavalry FC and FC Edmonton?
Cavalry FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cavalry FC see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
FC Edmonton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cavalry FC 25%, FC Edmonton 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Cavalry FC and 25% for FC Edmonton.
On the defensive side: Cavalry FC have failed to score in 75% of games; FC Edmonton in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cavalry FC home games / FC Edmonton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cavalry FC play FC Edmonton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Cavalry FC's recent matches and 50% of FC Edmonton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cavalry FC vs FC Edmonton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Cavalry FC's recent games and 25% of FC Edmonton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cavalry FC and FC Edmonton tend to score early?
Cavalry FC have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, FC Edmonton in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cavalry FC edge out FC Edmonton 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cavalry FC beat FC Edmonton 2-1 at ATCO Field, Regular Season - 5, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cavalry FC 0.84 xG and FC Edmonton 0.79 xG, a combined 1.64. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Cavalry FC beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cavalry FC attack 0.68 / defence 1.34 against FC Edmonton attack 0.69 / defence 1.25, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cavalry FC 34% | Draw 35% | FC Edmonton 31%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. The actual Cavalry FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 23%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 49% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 31% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cavalry FC 44%, FC Edmonton 22%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cavalry FC's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
FC Edmonton's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cavalry FC 1.56 PPG, FC Edmonton 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cavalry FC win broke the near-deadlock. Cavalry FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.