Atlético Ottawa 2-0 Valour – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atlético Ottawa at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Atlético Ottawa vs Valour fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Atlético Ottawa and Valour meet at TD Place Stadium in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 3. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 5 May 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Atlético Ottawa's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D L L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at TD Place Stadium, Atlético Ottawa have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at TD Place Stadium. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Atlético Ottawa are significantly better at TD Place Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Valour have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 3W 0D 7L. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Canadian Premier League this season, Valour have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Atlético Ottawa against 0.90 for Valour. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Atlético Ottawa lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Sep 2023, ended 0–1 with Valour winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Atlético Ottawa half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Valour half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atlético Ottawa 48% versus Valour 52%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Atlético Ottawa 39% | Valour 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atlético Ottawa 1.84 xG and Valour 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atlético Ottawa attack 0.943 / defence 1.003 | Valour attack 0.914 / defence 1.216. League average goals — home 1.602 / away 1.016. Valour bring a strong defensive rating of 1.216 — this is suppressing Atlético Ottawa's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 31 Atlético Ottawa games / 31 Valour games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Atlético Ottawa 56% | Draw 27% | Valour 16%. Fair-value odds: Atlético Ottawa 1.79 | Draw 3.70 | Valour 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Atlético Ottawa (56%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Atlético Ottawa at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.77 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. This conflicts with form data: Atlético Ottawa 40% | Valour 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atlético Ottawa vs Valour | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: TD Place Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 5 May 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atlético Ottawa 56% | Draw 27% | Valour 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 53% | xG Atlético Ottawa 1.84 / Valour 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Atlético Ottawa attack 0.943 / def 1.003 | Valour attack 0.914 / def 1.216 | league avg home 1.602 / away 1.016 • Poisson stance: Atlético Ottawa (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
Atlético Ottawa xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Valour xG
53%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atlético Ottawa vs Valour kick off?
Atlético Ottawa vs Valour kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 5 May 2024 at TD Place Stadium.
What was the final score in Atlético Ottawa vs Valour?
Atlético Ottawa 2 - 0 Valour.
Where is Atlético Ottawa vs Valour being played?
The match is being played at TD Place Stadium.
What competition is Atlético Ottawa vs Valour part of?
Atlético Ottawa vs Valour is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Atlético Ottawa vs Valour?
Our statistical model gives Atlético Ottawa a 56% chance of winning, Valour a 16% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Atlético Ottawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atlético Ottawa vs Valour?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Atlético Ottawa and Valour will score (BTTS).
Will Atlético Ottawa vs Valour have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atlético Ottawa and Valour?
Record (2 meetings): Atlético Ottawa 1W | Draws 0 | Valour 1W.
What form are Atlético Ottawa and Valour in?
Atlético Ottawa (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-L-L-W. Valour (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Atlético Ottawa's attack at 0.94x the league average against Valour's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 1.84 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Valour's attack (0.91x) against Atlético Ottawa's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.6%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atlético Ottawa Win
56%
1.77
27%
3.66
16%
6.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
Atlético Ottawa xG
Total xG
2.77
0.93
Valour xG
1.77
56%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
6.11
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
16%
6.28
Win to Nil
22%
4.50
3%
38.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.5 | 10.7 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atlético Ottawa vs Valour?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Atlético Ottawa and Valour expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Atlético Ottawa and 0.93 for Valour, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Atlético Ottawa vs Valour?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 56 outings, Atlético Ottawa have picked up 1.48 PPG on a 22W 17D 17L record — D-L-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Valour's form line: 16W 15D 25L from 56 games, 1.12 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.48 PPG for Atlético Ottawa against 1.12 for Valour. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Atlético Ottawa have posted 1.30 PPG from 27 outings (8W 11D 8L).
On the road, Valour have gone 6W 6D 15L from 27 away games — 0.89 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atlético Ottawa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Atlético Ottawa are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Valour are on 1.09 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atlético Ottawa
Current Season
Valour
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atlético Ottawa and Valour in coming into this match?
Atlético Ottawa have gone 22W 17D 17L in their last 56 games (1.48 PPG), while Valour have gone 16W 15D 25L in their last 56 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atlético Ottawa at home or Valour away?
Atlético Ottawa's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atlético Ottawa at home: 1.30 PPG; Valour away: 0.89 PPG.
Have Atlético Ottawa or Valour been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atlético Ottawa have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Valour in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. They last met on 5 October 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Atlético Ottawa won 5-2 on 10 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Atlético Ottawa have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Valour — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Atlético Ottawa
3
Draws
1
Valour
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atlético Ottawa and Valour?
From 10 meetings on record, Atlético Ottawa have won 6, Valour have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Atlético Ottawa and Valour last play each other?
They last met on 5 October 2025, when Valour 3-3 Atlético Ottawa.
Who has won more matches between Atlético Ottawa and Valour?
Atlético Ottawa have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Atlético Ottawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Valour are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atlético Ottawa 48%, Valour 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Atlético Ottawa) and 52% (Valour).
On the defensive side: Atlético Ottawa have failed to score in 37% of games; Valour in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atlético Ottawa home games / Valour away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atlético Ottawa play Valour?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Atlético Ottawa's recent matches and 59% of Valour's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Atlético Ottawa vs Valour usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Atlético Ottawa's recent games and 52% of Valour's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atlético Ottawa and Valour tend to score early?
Atlético Ottawa have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Valour in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Atlético Ottawa cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Valour.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atlético Ottawa beat Valour 2-0 at TD Place Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atlético Ottawa 1.84 xG and Valour 0.93 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Valour landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atlético Ottawa attack 0.94 / defence 1.00 against Valour attack 0.91 / defence 1.22, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Atlético Ottawa 56% | Draw 27% | Valour 16%, with Atlético Ottawa to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atlético Ottawa 39%, Valour 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atlético Ottawa's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Valour's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Atlético Ottawa 1.48 PPG, Valour 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Atlético Ottawa win broke the near-deadlock. Atlético Ottawa (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line. Valour (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.