Vitoria 1-2 Flamengo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Flamengo at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Vitoria vs Flamengo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Flamengo travel to Estádio Manoel Barradas to take on Vitoria. The game is scheduled for Thursday 25 July 2024, 00:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Vitoria stand at 4W 0D 6L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Vitoria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Vitoria have posted 3W 1D 5L at Estádio Manoel Barradas — 1.11 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Serie A games this season, Flamengo have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Flamengo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Flamengo's away record: 5W 3D 2L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Flamengo are 0.80 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Data
Vitoria trading profile (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Flamengo trading profile (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Vitoria 61% and Flamengo 72% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vitoria 56% | Flamengo 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vitoria 1.08 xG and Flamengo 1.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vitoria attack 0.893 / defence 1.259 | Flamengo attack 1.484 / defence 0.890. League average goals — home 1.360 / away 1.029. Flamengo have an above-average attack strength of 1.484 — the away xG of 1.92 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 18 Vitoria games / 55 Flamengo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vitoria 20% | Draw 23% | Flamengo 56%. Fair-value odds: Vitoria 5.00 | Draw 4.35 | Flamengo 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Flamengo (56%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Flamengo are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.00 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Vitoria 56% | Flamengo 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vitoria vs Flamengo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Estádio Manoel Barradas • Kick-off: Thursday 25 Jul 2024, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vitoria 20% | Draw 23% | Flamengo 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 57% | xG Vitoria 1.08 / Flamengo 1.92 • Poisson strength factors: Vitoria attack 0.893 / def 1.259 | Flamengo attack 1.484 / def 0.890 | league avg home 1.360 / away 1.029 • Poisson stance: Flamengo (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Vitoria xG
Expected Goals
1.92
Flamengo xG
57%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vitoria vs Flamengo kick off?
Vitoria vs Flamengo kicked off at 00:00 on Thursday 25 July 2024 at Estádio Manoel Barradas.
What was the final score in Vitoria vs Flamengo?
Vitoria 1 - 2 Flamengo.
Where is Vitoria vs Flamengo being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Manoel Barradas.
What competition is Vitoria vs Flamengo part of?
Vitoria vs Flamengo is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Vitoria vs Flamengo?
Our statistical model gives Vitoria a 20% chance of winning, Flamengo a 56% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Flamengo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vitoria vs Flamengo?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Vitoria and Flamengo will score (BTTS).
Will Vitoria vs Flamengo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vitoria and Flamengo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Vitoria and Flamengo in?
Vitoria (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Flamengo (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Vitoria's attack at 0.89x the league average against Flamengo's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.08 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Flamengo's attack versus Vitoria's defence, projects 1.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Flamengo Win
20%
4.91
23%
4.32
56%
1.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Vitoria xG
Total xG
3.00
1.92
Flamengo xG
4.91
20%
Home win
4.32
23%
Draw
1.77
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
15%
6.85
34%
2.94
Win to Nil
3%
33.60
19%
5.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 9.5 | 9.2 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 10.3 | 9.9 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vitoria vs Flamengo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Vitoria and Flamengo expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Vitoria and 1.92 for Flamengo, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Vitoria vs Flamengo?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Vitoria's recent record stands at 4W 3D 11L from 18 games, a 0.83 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Vitoria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Flamengo, meanwhile, have gone 10W 4D 4L across 18 games — 1.89 PPG, with W-W-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Flamengo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Flamengo by 1.06 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Vitoria heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Vitoria have managed 3W 1D 5L from 9 games — 1.11 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Flamengo's away record stands at 4W 3D 2L across 9 trips, a 1.67 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Flamengo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Vitoria are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Flamengo are on 1.67 scored and 1.06 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vitoria have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Flamengo in 72%.
Last 18 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vitoria
Blended
Flamengo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vitoria and Flamengo in coming into this match?
Vitoria have gone 4W 3D 11L in their last 18 games (0.83 PPG), while Flamengo have gone 10W 4D 4L in their last 18 (1.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vitoria at home or Flamengo away?
Flamengo's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vitoria at home: 1.11 PPG; Flamengo away: 1.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 11 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Flamengo have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Aug 2025, when Flamengo won 8-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Vitoria's record when hosting Flamengo specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Vitoria
1
Draws
4
Flamengo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vitoria and Flamengo?
From 5 meetings on record, Vitoria have won 0, Flamengo have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Vitoria and Flamengo last play each other?
They last met on 11 February 2026, when Vitoria 1-2 Flamengo.
Who has won more matches between Vitoria and Flamengo?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Vitoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vitoria 56%, Flamengo 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Vitoria) and 44% (Flamengo).
On the defensive side: Vitoria have failed to score in 44% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vitoria home games / Flamengo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vitoria play Flamengo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Vitoria's games and 67% of Flamengo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Vitoria vs Flamengo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Vitoria's recent games and 44% of Flamengo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vitoria and Flamengo tend to score early?
Vitoria have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Flamengo in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Flamengo edge out Vitoria 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Flamengo beat Vitoria 1-2 at Estádio Manoel Barradas, Regular Season - 19, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vitoria 1.08 xG and Flamengo 1.92 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vitoria attack 0.89 / defence 1.26 against Flamengo attack 1.48 / defence 0.89, drawn from 18/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vitoria 20% | Draw 23% | Flamengo 56%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vitoria 56%, Flamengo 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vitoria's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Flamengo's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Flamengo arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 0.83. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.