Vasco DA Gama 2-0 Fortaleza EC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vasco DA Gama at 47%, yet in-form Fortaleza EC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Vasco DA Gama vs Fortaleza EC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Vasco DA Gama host Fortaleza EC at Estádio São Januário in Serie A (matchday 14). Kick-off is Thursday 4 July 2024 at 01:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Vasco DA Gama have gone 2W 2D 6L — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: D L W L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Vasco DA Gama's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Vasco DA Gama are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Fortaleza EC stand at 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Fortaleza EC's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Fortaleza EC — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Vasco DA Gama's last 10 home games and Fortaleza EC's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Vasco DA Gama, 1 for Fortaleza EC and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.5 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 19 Oct 2023, ended Vasco DA Gama 1–0 Fortaleza EC — a Vasco DA Gama win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Vasco DA Gama in-play and half-time data (last 50 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Fortaleza EC in-play and half-time data (last 50 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vasco DA Gama 52% versus Fortaleza EC 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vasco DA Gama 42% | Fortaleza EC 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vasco DA Gama 1.66 xG and Fortaleza EC 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vasco DA Gama attack 1.054 / defence 1.364 | Fortaleza EC attack 0.791 / defence 1.174. League average goals — home 1.338 / away 1.069. Fortaleza EC's attack rating of 0.791 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.15. Vasco DA Gama's defence rating of 1.364 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Fortaleza EC's projected output up. Data: built from Vasco DA Gama's last 51 games and Fortaleza EC's last 50.
Result probabilities: Vasco DA Gama 47% | Draw 28% | Fortaleza EC 25%. Fair-value odds: Vasco DA Gama 2.11 | Draw 3.60 | Fortaleza EC 4.02. Vasco DA Gama hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Vasco DA Gama at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Fortaleza EC (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Vasco DA Gama offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.81 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Vasco DA Gama's last 10 home games and Fortaleza EC's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Vasco DA Gama 80% (last 10 home games) | Fortaleza EC 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vasco DA Gama vs Fortaleza EC | Competition: Serie A, matchday 14 | Venue: Estádio São Januário • Kick-off: Thursday 4 July 2024 at 01:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vasco DA Gama 47% | Draw 28% | Fortaleza EC 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Vasco DA Gama 1.66 / Fortaleza EC 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Vasco DA Gama attack 1.054 / def 1.364 | Fortaleza EC attack 0.791 / def 1.174 | league avg home 1.338 / away 1.069 • Poisson stance: Vasco DA Gama (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Vasco DA Gama xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Fortaleza EC xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Vasco DA Gama vs Fortaleza EC FAQs
What time does Vasco DA Gama vs Fortaleza EC kick off?
Vasco DA Gama vs Fortaleza EC kicked off at 01:00 UK time on Thursday 4 July 2024 at Estádio São Januário.
What was the final score in Vasco DA Gama vs Fortaleza EC?
Vasco DA Gama 2 - 0 Fortaleza EC.
Where is Vasco DA Gama vs Fortaleza EC being played?
The match is being played at Estádio São Januário.
What competition is Vasco DA Gama vs Fortaleza EC part of?
Vasco DA Gama vs Fortaleza EC is a Serie A fixture (matchday 14) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Vasco DA Gama vs Fortaleza EC?
Our statistical model gives Vasco DA Gama a 47% chance of winning, Fortaleza EC a 25% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Vasco DA Gama the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vasco DA Gama vs Fortaleza EC?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Vasco DA Gama and Fortaleza EC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Vasco DA Gama vs Fortaleza EC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Vasco DA Gama's attack rating (1.05) and Fortaleza EC's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.66 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Fortaleza EC's attack versus Vasco DA Gama's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Vasco DA Gama's last 51 games and Fortaleza EC's last 50 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vasco DA Gama Win
47%
2.11
28%
3.60
25%
4.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Vasco DA Gama xG
Total xG
2.81
1.15
Fortaleza EC xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
4.02
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
19%
5.24
Win to Nil
15%
6.70
5%
21.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 6.9 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 11.5 | 6.6 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Vasco DA Gama vs Fortaleza EC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Vasco DA Gama vs Fortaleza EC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Vasco DA Gama and Fortaleza EC expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Vasco DA Gama and 1.15 for Fortaleza EC, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Vasco DA Gama vs Fortaleza EC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Vasco DA Gama's recent record stands at 14W 11D 25L from 50 games, a 1.06 PPG return, with D-L-W-L-D in the last five.
Fortaleza EC, meanwhile, have gone 20W 14D 16L across 50 games — 1.48 PPG, with L-W-D-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fortaleza EC by 0.42 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Vasco DA Gama heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Vasco DA Gama have managed 12W 3D 9L from their last 24 home games — 1.62 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.06 PPG overall — Vasco DA Gama are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Fortaleza EC's away record stands at 7W 5D 12L across their last 24 away games, a 1.08 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vasco DA Gama come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Vasco DA Gama are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Fortaleza EC are on 1.16 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Last 50 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vasco DA Gama
Blended
Fortaleza EC
Blended
Vasco DA Gama (Home) vs Fortaleza EC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Vasco DA Gama
Blended
Fortaleza EC
Blended
❓ Vasco DA Gama vs Fortaleza EC Form FAQs
What form are Vasco DA Gama and Fortaleza EC in coming into this match?
Vasco DA Gama have gone 14W 11D 25L in their last 50 games (1.06 PPG), while Fortaleza EC have gone 20W 14D 16L in their last 50 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vasco DA Gama at home or Fortaleza EC away?
Vasco DA Gama's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vasco DA Gama at home: 1.62 PPG; Fortaleza EC away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to May 2023. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent in our data was on 16 October 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Vasco DA Gama have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 9 Nov 2024, when Fortaleza EC won Fortaleza EC 3-0 Vasco DA Gama.
Vasco DA Gama's record when hosting Fortaleza EC specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Vasco DA Gama
0
Draws
2
Fortaleza EC
Recent Meetings
❓ Vasco DA Gama vs Fortaleza EC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Vasco DA Gama and Fortaleza EC?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Vasco DA Gama have won 4, Fortaleza EC have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Vasco DA Gama and Fortaleza EC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 October 2025: Fortaleza EC 0-2 Vasco DA Gama.
Who has won more matches between Vasco DA Gama and Fortaleza EC?
Vasco DA Gama have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Vasco DA Gama are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Fortaleza EC see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vasco DA Gama 50%, Fortaleza EC 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Vasco DA Gama) and 42% (Fortaleza EC).
On the defensive side: Vasco DA Gama have failed to score in 29% of games; Fortaleza EC in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vasco DA Gama home games / Fortaleza EC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Vasco DA Gama vs Fortaleza EC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Vasco DA Gama and Fortaleza EC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Vasco DA Gama's recent matches and 46% of Fortaleza EC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Vasco DA Gama and Fortaleza EC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Vasco DA Gama's recent games and 42% of Fortaleza EC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vasco DA Gama and Fortaleza EC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Vasco DA Gama's recent matches and 54% of Fortaleza EC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Vasco DA Gama cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Fortaleza EC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vasco DA Gama beat Fortaleza EC 2-0 at Estádio São Januário, Regular Season - 14, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasco DA Gama 1.66 xG and Fortaleza EC 1.15 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Fortaleza EC landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasco DA Gama attack 1.05 / defence 1.36 against Fortaleza EC attack 0.79 / defence 1.17, drawn from 51/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vasco DA Gama 47% | Draw 28% | Fortaleza EC 25%, with Vasco DA Gama to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vasco DA Gama 42%, Fortaleza EC 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vasco DA Gama's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Fortaleza EC's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Fortaleza EC arrived the stronger side — 1.48 PPG against 1.06. Form was overturned, with Vasco DA Gama winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Vasco DA Gama (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line. Fortaleza EC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.