Sport Recife 1-0 Corinthians – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 42% as Sport Recife take on Corinthians.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sport Recife and Corinthians meet at Itaipava Arena Pernambuco in Serie A, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 9 October 2021 at 20:30 UTC.
Current Form
Sport Recife's overall Serie A record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Sport Recife, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Itaipava Arena Pernambuco, Sport Recife have gone 1W 4D 5L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Corinthians (all games): 5W 5D 0L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: D D W D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Corinthians, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Corinthians away from home this season: 4W 5D 1L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Corinthians arrive in superior form — a 1.10 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 0.90) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Sport Recife, 1 for Corinthians and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Jun 2021, ended 1–2 with Corinthians winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Sport Recife — key trading statistics (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games); they fail to score in 62% of games.
Corinthians — key trading statistics (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 42% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sport Recife 25% versus Corinthians 62%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sport Recife 25% | Corinthians 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sport Recife 0.56 xG and Corinthians 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sport Recife attack 0.645 / defence 0.951 | Corinthians attack 0.799 / defence 0.957. League average goals — home 0.905 / away 1.068. Sport Recife's attack strength of 0.645 is below the league average — the 0.56 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 24 Sport Recife games / 24 Corinthians games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sport Recife 21% | Draw 42% | Corinthians 36%. Fair-value odds: Sport Recife 4.76 | Draw 2.38 | Corinthians 2.78. The draw (42%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 16% | BTTS probability 26% | Total xG 1.37. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 84% probability — total xG of 1.37 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 74% — Sport Recife's lower xG of 0.56 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 26%.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 42% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 21% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.37 combined xG gives a 16% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 26%. Form rates corroborate: Sport Recife 20% | Corinthians 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sport Recife vs Corinthians | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Itaipava Arena Pernambuco • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Oct 2021, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sport Recife 21% | Draw 42% | Corinthians 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 16% | BTTS 26% | xG Sport Recife 0.56 / Corinthians 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Sport Recife attack 0.645 / def 0.951 | Corinthians attack 0.799 / def 0.957 | league avg home 0.905 / away 1.068 • Poisson stance: Draw (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.56
Sport Recife xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Corinthians xG
26%
BTTS
42%
Over 1.5
16%
Over 2.5
5%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sport Recife vs Corinthians kick off?
Sport Recife vs Corinthians kicked off at 20:30 on Saturday 9 October 2021 at Itaipava Arena Pernambuco.
What was the final score in Sport Recife vs Corinthians?
Sport Recife 1 - 0 Corinthians.
Where is Sport Recife vs Corinthians being played?
The match is being played at Itaipava Arena Pernambuco.
What competition is Sport Recife vs Corinthians part of?
Sport Recife vs Corinthians is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Sport Recife vs Corinthians?
Our statistical model gives Sport Recife a 21% chance of winning, Corinthians a 36% chance, and a 42% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Sport Recife vs Corinthians?
Our model estimates a 26% probability that both Sport Recife and Corinthians will score (BTTS).
Will Sport Recife vs Corinthians have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 16%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sport Recife and Corinthians?
Record (1 meetings): Sport Recife 0W | Draws 0 | Corinthians 1W.
What form are Sport Recife and Corinthians in?
Sport Recife (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. Corinthians (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Sport Recife's attacking strength (0.65x league average) is weighed against Corinthians's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.56. Flip it around — Corinthians's attack (0.80x) against Sport Recife's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 26.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (19.1%), 1-1 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 59% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
21%
4.71
42%
2.36
36%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
25.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
20.6%
Away win
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.56
Sport Recife xG
Total xG
1.37
0.81
Corinthians xG
4.71
21%
Home win
2.36
42%
Draw
2.74
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
40%
Over 1.5
2.50
60%
Under 1.5
1.67
16%
Over 2.5
6.25
84%
Under 2.5
1.19
5%
Over 3.5
20.00
95%
Under 3.5
1.05
1%
Over 4.5
100.00
99%
Under 4.5
1.01
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
26%
BTTS Yes
3.87
74%
BTTS No
1.35
Clean Sheet
44%
2.25
57%
1.75
Win to Nil
9%
10.60
21%
4.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 25.4 | 20.6 | 8.4 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 11.5 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 4.0 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sport Recife vs Corinthians?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 26.9%.
How many goals are Sport Recife and Corinthians expected to score?
The model projects 0.56 expected goals for Sport Recife and 0.81 for Corinthians, a combined total of 1.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Sport Recife vs Corinthians?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sport Recife come into this having played 24 games, going 5W 8D 11L for 0.96 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-W. The sample for Sport Recife is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Corinthians sit at 1.54 PPG from 24 outings (9W 10D 5L), a run that reads D-D-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Corinthians is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Corinthians carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.58 PPG clear of Sport Recife — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Sport Recife's home form reads 2W 4D 6L across 12 games on their own ground, a 0.83 PPG return.
Away from home, Corinthians have taken 1.75 points per game from 12 outings (5W 6D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Corinthians come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sport Recife are averaging 0.54 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; Corinthians are on 1.12 scored and 0.92 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Sport Recife have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games; Corinthians in 62%.
Defensively: Sport Recife have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sport Recife
Blended
Corinthians
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sport Recife and Corinthians in coming into this match?
Sport Recife have gone 5W 8D 11L in their last 24 games (0.96 PPG), while Corinthians have gone 9W 10D 5L in their last 24 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sport Recife at home or Corinthians away?
Corinthians's away record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sport Recife at home: 0.83 PPG; Corinthians away: 1.75 PPG.
Have Sport Recife or Corinthians been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sport Recife have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Corinthians in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since June 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 21 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sport Recife have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Corinthians — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Sport Recife
0
Draws
2
Corinthians
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sport Recife and Corinthians?
From 4 meetings on record, Sport Recife have won 2, Corinthians have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sport Recife and Corinthians last play each other?
They last met on 21 September 2025, when Sport Recife 1-0 Corinthians.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sport Recife are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Corinthians see a goal before the break in 42% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 17% (Sport Recife) and 42% (Corinthians) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 17% for Sport Recife and 17% for Corinthians.
On the defensive side: Sport Recife keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Corinthians in 50%; Sport Recife have failed to score in 75% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sport Recife home games / Corinthians away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sport Recife play Corinthians?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 17% of Sport Recife's recent matches and 42% of Corinthians's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sport Recife vs Corinthians usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of Sport Recife's recent games and 17% of Corinthians's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sport Recife and Corinthians tend to score early?
Sport Recife have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Corinthians in 42% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sport Recife defy the odds to beat Corinthians 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sport Recife beat Corinthians 1-0 at Itaipava Arena Pernambuco, Regular Season - 25, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sport Recife 0.56 xG and Corinthians 0.81 xG, a combined 1.37. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Corinthians landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sport Recife attack 0.65 / defence 0.95 against Corinthians attack 0.80 / defence 0.96, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sport Recife 21% | Draw 42% | Corinthians 36%, with the draw its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a Sport Recife win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 16%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 42% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 26% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 31% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sport Recife 25%, Corinthians 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sport Recife's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Corinthians's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Corinthians arrived the stronger side — 1.54 PPG against 0.96. Form was overturned, with Sport Recife winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Corinthians (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.