Sao Paulo 0-4 Flamengo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Flamengo at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sao Paulo vs Flamengo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sao Paulo host Flamengo at Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo in Serie A, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 14 November 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sao Paulo stand at 2W 6D 2L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sao Paulo have posted 4W 5D 1L at Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Sao Paulo are significantly better at Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo than their overall form suggests.
Flamengo — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Flamengo's away record: 4W 5D 1L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Flamengo — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Trading Patterns
Sao Paulo in-play and half-time data (30 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Flamengo in-play and half-time data (30 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sao Paulo 47% versus Flamengo 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sao Paulo 23% | Flamengo 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sao Paulo 0.96 xG and Flamengo 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sao Paulo attack 0.792 / defence 0.930 | Flamengo attack 1.431 / defence 1.231. League average goals — home 0.986 / away 0.929. Sao Paulo's attack strength of 0.792 is below the league average — the 0.96 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Flamengo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.231 — this is suppressing Sao Paulo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Flamengo have an above-average attack strength of 1.431 — the away xG of 1.24 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 31 Sao Paulo games / 30 Flamengo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sao Paulo 28% | Draw 30% | Flamengo 42%. Fair-value odds: Sao Paulo 3.57 | Draw 3.33 | Flamengo 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Flamengo are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Flamengo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.20 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. This conflicts with form data: Sao Paulo 40% | Flamengo 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sao Paulo vs Flamengo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Nov 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sao Paulo 28% | Draw 30% | Flamengo 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG Sao Paulo 0.96 / Flamengo 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Sao Paulo attack 0.792 / def 0.930 | Flamengo attack 1.431 / def 1.231 | league avg home 0.986 / away 0.929 • Poisson stance: Flamengo (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Sao Paulo xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Flamengo xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sao Paulo vs Flamengo kick off?
Sao Paulo vs Flamengo kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 14 November 2021 at Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo.
What was the final score in Sao Paulo vs Flamengo?
Sao Paulo 0 - 4 Flamengo.
Where is Sao Paulo vs Flamengo being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo.
What competition is Sao Paulo vs Flamengo part of?
Sao Paulo vs Flamengo is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Sao Paulo vs Flamengo?
Our statistical model gives Sao Paulo a 28% chance of winning, Flamengo a 42% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Flamengo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sao Paulo vs Flamengo?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Sao Paulo and Flamengo will score (BTTS).
Will Sao Paulo vs Flamengo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sao Paulo and Flamengo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sao Paulo and Flamengo in?
Sao Paulo (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-L-W-L-D. Flamengo (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Sao Paulo's attack rating (0.79) and Flamengo's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 0.96 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Flamengo's attack versus Sao Paulo's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.8%), 0-1 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Flamengo Win
28%
3.55
30%
3.37
42%
2.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Sao Paulo xG
Total xG
2.20
1.24
Flamengo xG
3.55
28%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
2.38
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
29%
3.45
38%
2.61
Win to Nil
8%
12.23
16%
6.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 13.7 | 8.5 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.2 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 6.3 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sao Paulo vs Flamengo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Sao Paulo and Flamengo expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Sao Paulo and 1.24 for Flamengo, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Sao Paulo vs Flamengo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sao Paulo come into this having played 30 games, going 8W 13D 9L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-D.
On the other side, Flamengo sit at 1.90 PPG from 30 outings (17W 6D 7L), a run that reads W-D-W-D-W across their last five.
Flamengo carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.67 PPG clear of Sao Paulo — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Sao Paulo's home form reads 5W 7D 2L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.57 PPG return.
Away from home, Flamengo have taken 1.64 points per game from 14 outings (6W 5D 3L).
The Goals Picture
Sao Paulo are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Flamengo are on 1.90 scored and 0.93 conceded. Flamengo's attacking output running into Sao Paulo's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Flamengo in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sao Paulo
Current Season
Flamengo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sao Paulo and Flamengo in coming into this match?
Sao Paulo have gone 8W 13D 9L in their last 30 games (1.23 PPG), while Flamengo have gone 17W 6D 7L in their last 30 (1.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sao Paulo at home or Flamengo away?
Flamengo's away record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sao Paulo at home: 1.57 PPG; Flamengo away: 1.64 PPG.
Have Sao Paulo or Flamengo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sao Paulo have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Flamengo in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sao Paulo and Flamengo runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sao Paulo's record when hosting Flamengo specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Sao Paulo
3
Draws
4
Flamengo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sao Paulo and Flamengo?
From 10 meetings on record, Sao Paulo have won 3, Flamengo have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sao Paulo and Flamengo last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Flamengo 1-1 Sao Paulo.
Who has won more matches between Sao Paulo and Flamengo?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sao Paulo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sao Paulo 50%, Flamengo 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Sao Paulo) and 64% (Flamengo).
On the defensive side: Sao Paulo keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Sao Paulo have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sao Paulo home games / Flamengo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sao Paulo play Flamengo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Sao Paulo's games and 64% of Flamengo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sao Paulo vs Flamengo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Sao Paulo's recent games and 64% of Flamengo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sao Paulo and Flamengo tend to score early?
Sao Paulo have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Flamengo in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Flamengo run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Sao Paulo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Flamengo beat Sao Paulo 0-4 at Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo, Regular Season - 32, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sao Paulo 0.96 xG and Flamengo 1.24 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Sao Paulo fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Flamengo outscored their 1.24 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sao Paulo attack 0.79 / defence 0.93 against Flamengo attack 1.43 / defence 1.23, drawn from 31/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sao Paulo 28% | Draw 30% | Flamengo 42%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sao Paulo 23%, Flamengo 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sao Paulo's trading profile (30 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Flamengo's trading profile (30 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Flamengo arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.23. That form edge translated into the three points. Sao Paulo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 0.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Flamengo (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.07 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.